Maryland lost its treasured “triple triple-A” bond rating Wednesday, when a key bond-rating agency downgraded its assessment of the state’s creditworthiness to Aa1.

The move by Moody’s ends more than three decades in which Maryland held the highest bond rating from the three rating agencies: Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.

Moody’s had given Maryland an Aaa rating every year since 1973 — until Wednesday. The rating agency also downgraded half a dozen other state borrowing programs in its report.

In its reasoning for the downgrade, Moody’s said Maryland continues to have a “wealthy and diverse economy,” solid financial planning and that officials had recently addressed budget problems “through a combination of tax increases and restraints on expenditures.” But those were not enough to offset concerns about looming financial challenges, the report said.

“The downgrade was driven by economic and financial underperformance compared to Aaa-rated states, which is expected to continue given the state’s heightened vulnerability to shifting federal policies and employment, and its elevated fixed costs,” Moody’s wrote in its report.

Prior to Wednesday’s announcement, Maryland was one of 14 states to have the highest rating from the three major agencies — Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poors.

In a forceful response to the downgrade, the state’s top five Democrats — Gov. Wes Moore, Senate President Bill Ferguson (Baltimore City), House Speaker Adrienne Jones (Baltimore County), Comptroller Brook Lierman and Treasurer Dereck Davis — laid the blame on the White House doorstep of Republican President Donald Trump

“To put it bluntly, this is a Trump downgrade. Over the last one hundred days, the federal administration’s decisions have wreaked havoc on the entire region, including Maryland,” their joint statement said.

“Thousands of federal workers are losing their jobs. Actual and proposed cuts to everything from health care to education will continue to exact an incalculable toll on Maryland and states across the country,” the statement said.

But Maryland Republicans said warnings about the state’s financial problems came well before Trump, and said the downgrade should be a signal that the state cannot tax its way out of problems anymore.

“This is Moody’s saying that Maryland’s propensity to raise taxes is not enough any more,” Senate Minority Leader Stephen S. Hershey Jr. (R-Upper Shore) said Wednesday.

“People can move. They can work in other states,” he said. “They (Moody’s) are looking at the potential for economic growth in the state and it’s not enough.”

House Minority Leader Jason C. Buckel (R-Allegany) pushed back on the suggestion that it’s “a Trump downgrade.” He pointed to warnings from fiscal analysts in November and again in January of billions in structural budget gaps driven by higher spending on Medicaid, child care subsidies and, in later years, the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future education reforms.

Last year, Moody’s itself cited “escalating expenditures in education and healthcare, combined with elevated retirement benefit liabilities” when it reaffirmed the state’s Aaa bond rating, but downgraded the outlook from stable to negative. Wednesday’s downgrade “should come as no surprise to anyone” who follows the state budget, Buckel said.

“This was well before President Trump’s reelection and before any federal retrenchment. Foisting the blame anywhere but at the feet of the excessive spending championed by Maryland’s Democratic party is, at best, disingenuous,” Buckel said in a statement.

Decades without a downgrade

Besides Moody’s, which gave Maryland an Aaa rating in 1973, Standard & Poor’s first rated Maryland Aaa in 1961 and Fitch has given it that ranking since 1993.

Maryland maintained its Aaa rating from Moody’s through five recessions — including the Great Recession — the 2013 federal budget sequestration, and the COVID-19 pandemic. But Trump’s approach in his first 100 days, focused on slashing federal spending and employment and moving to wipe out entire programs or agencies, has rattled that confidence.

A triple-A rating means the state pays the lowest rates when it sells bonds to fund public projects. The downgrade means the state — and taxpayers — could  pay more in interest on the money the state borrows.

The next bond sale is scheduled for June 11.

It is not yet clear if the shift by one agency will increase the state’s interest rate or decrease or eliminate bond premiums — fees bond buyers pay the state in return for higher interest rates and a guarantee that the bonds will not be called for specific time periods. Premiums can be used to offset the higher rates the state pays, but that upfront cash has been used in the past for other purposes.

The downgrade is a blow to Democrats who for years have pointed to the state’s high credit ratings as a symbol of strong fiscal management. For others, it was seen as a sign the rating agencies were confident in a willingness among Maryland’s leaders — mostly Democrats — to raise taxes to pay its debts.

The rating downgrade was not wholly unexpected.

The warnings were there

When Moody’s last year reaffirmed the state’s AAA rating but lowered the state’s outlook from stable to negative, it cited concerns about looming structural deficits driven by programs like the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future.

The 2024 report noted the state’s high costs but relatively stable personal income tax base that was bolstered by federal employment and its proximity to the District of Columbia.

But Moody’s expressed concerns then about Maryland’s pension liabilities, and “above average debt burden.” The agency also worried about Maryland’s “vulnerability to swings in federal spending.”

Last year’s rating and negative outlook incorporated the “difficulties Maryland will face to achieve balanced financial operations in coming years without sacrificing service delivery goals or increasing the tax burden on individual and corporate taxpayers.”

Moody’s analysts warned then that a downgrade could come if there was further economic deterioration that resulted “in deficits, fund transfers and reserve draws.” Analysts also raised concerns about an “insufficient plan” to quickly replenish reserve funds or reach a structural budget balance.

Cuts to federal jobs or the federal government’s “role in the state’s economy” might also cause a downgrade, Moody’s wrote in its 2024 report.

Administration officials earlier this year expressed concern about a potential downgrade, but thought that solving the state’s immediate financial concerns — more than $3 billion in structural deficits in fiscal 2026, and a nearly equal amount the following year — would satisfy the rating agency and protect Maryland’s credit rating.

External pressures come to bear

But as lawmakers and administration officials were negotiating cuts, cost shifts and $1.6 billion in taxes and fees, Moody’s issued another warning report. The March report listed Maryland as the state at highest risk for economic problems as the Trump administration slashed agency budgets and jobs.

The budget finalized by lawmakers reduced general fund spending — the portion paid directly by Maryland taxpayers — by $400 million, despite overall growth of about 1% when all funding sources are included.

That included more than $1 billion in combined one-time general fund actions and another $800 million in transfers from various accounts to the general fund budget, in addition to tax and fee increases.

The spending plan also eased the burden on the state by shifting some costs, including teacher pensions and costs for property tax assessments, to local governments.

The result was the elimination of the projected structural deficits for fiscal 2026 and 2027.

But those deficits return the following year and grow to more than $3 billion by 2030, according to projections included in a presentation to the bond rating agencies. All of those deficits are related to expected education spending that is part of the Blueprint plan.

Officials told the rating agencies that 70% of the costs could be controlled by the state.

Soon after the 2025 session ended, Moody’s issued a report downgrading the credit rating of the District of Columbia from AAA to Aa1. The firm cited impacts from federal workforce reductions as well as weakening demand for commercial real estate.

“I think a lot of us looked at that report and thought you could replace DC with Maryland because Maryland is going through all the same challenges,” said David Turner, a Moore spokesperson.

Presenting a united front

Last week, the state hosted all three bond rating agencies as part of its annual reviews ahead of the state’s June bond sale. Only Moody’s came to Maryland for face-to-face meetings; Fitch and Standard & Poor’s representatives met with state officials virtually.

Typically, those meetings include the state treasurer, comptroller, budget secretary, the director of the Bureau of Revenue Estimates and legislative analysts. But Moore, Ferguson, Jones took the rare step of meeting in person with Moody’s last Tuesday. The three also made brief comments as part of a united front in hopes of retaining the highest credit rating.

The three did not attend meetings with the other two firms. A spokesman for the governor acknowledged the concerns about a bond rating hit from Moody’s.

As a part of the presentation to the agencies, officials highlighted actions taken this year on the budget as well as the creation of a committee to track the effects of federal cuts on Maryland.

Layoff notices spiked in February and March, but “normalized in April,” according to a copy of the presentation obtained by Maryland Matters. Monthly federal employment showed no declines; unemployment claims showed no increase.

But state officials also acknowledged the chance of a delayed effect, as pending federal lawsuits over Trump actions are resolved. Another potential effect could come from employees who took buyouts and may apply for unemployment in the fall.

Officials told all three bond-rating agencies that the state was seeing stronger than projected income tax withholding. While initial projections for fiscal 2025 called for 5.5% growth, income tax collections were up 9’% through March, the presentation said.

The joint Democratic statement said leaders met with Moody’s “to discuss our collective work protecting the full faith and credit of the State of Maryland.”

“Together, we turned a deficit into a surplus, gave the middle class tax relief while still raising critical revenue through strategic tax reforms, and reduced spending by over $2 billion – the largest amount that’s been cut in a Maryland state budget in 16 years.” their statement said. “Maryland’s creditworthiness has only been strengthened by our collective work on this budget.”

Fitch and Standard & Poors are expected to release their own ratings in advance of the June bond sale. Officials have not expressed a heightened concern for a downgrade from either of the remaining agencies.

By Bryan P. Sears

A warm and sunny afternoon in late March. Light winds. A dozen or so deadrises still oystering out on Broad Creek.

Many of the boats have already come in; the earliest, two young divers who have been the first to get their 12-bushel limits for many days now.

Price has been holding steady at $35 per bushel to the watermen. Pretty much about that all season. When the wild season ends, the bushel price may nearly double for cultivated oysters. Supply goes down, demand holds steady for another couple months, price goes up.  Like the tides, up and down.

Last day of the 2024-2025 wild oyster season is just around the corner: March 31.  On April 1, the 2025 crabbing season opens.

Two of the vessels working the hand-tonging waters on this day carry watermen many generations apart in ages.

A third vessel, Bobby B, carries a waterman and his partner, Ann Barrett, who shares the culling chores. They’re underway toward the dock to offload.

Jason Gay can’t wait for the season to end.

“So many boats out there, after six months it’s getting harder and harder to get our oysters.”

They’ve been oystering many years. Six-month seasons, starting Oct. 1.  When March 31 arrives, they’re ready for a change of pace.  Then it will be about six months of crabbing.  When October rolls around, Jason will be glad to trade his trotline for his hand tongs.  That’s the rhythm for these watermen.

“I’ll probably start crabbing in mid April,” he says. “Get the boat cleaned up and then go.”

Tonging oysters off the bottom is dirtier work than dipping crabs from trotline baits.

Off will come the tongs and culling tables.  On will come the canopy to provide shade against the sun, along with the trotlining gear: baskets and nets and measuring sticks.

Out in the creek, men aboard the two other generations-apart vessels have finished tonging.  They’re near the end of their culling: separating legal-size oysters from the smalls with sharp blows from their metal hammers, tossing over empty shells to catch next year’s spat, filling their final baskets of the day.

Lewis Carter works by himself. “No January, no February for me,” he says.  “Can’t stand no cold. Used to break ice to get out here but no more. I’m 79 years old.  Been doing this since I was 15.  64 years.  Charles Bryan took me on when I was 11, culling oysters, cleaning up. Quit school when I was 15. Other than time in the Army,  I’ve been at this ever since.”

Lewis says he opted for the water to make a living. “Back then the minimum wage was 75 cents an hour. Figured I could do better on the water.”

Lewis trotlines summers out of Kent Narrows, mostly in Cabin Creek and Chester River. He lives nearby in Queenstown but brings his boat down  to Broad Creek in the winter for oysters. “They won’t let you oyster in the Chester, only certain times they have reserved.”

He says he doesn’t like the sanctuaries the state has in place where oystering is prohibited.  He doesn’t think the sanctuaries are doing much for the Chesapeake’s oyster populations. “The oysters have always taken care of themselves.”

He named his boat after his granddaughter, Chelonte.  “I bought it off of Capt. Warren Butler.  He had 17 boats over the years.  This was his last one.”

He said this year’s been a good oyster season. “Good oysters, about the same as last year. I guess I’ll keep on doing it until I can’t do it any more.  It’s better than settin’ home, waiting for death.  I’ll meet him halfway.”

A few hundred yards away, also working the typically productive bars of Broad Creek, just north of the Choptank, Kadan Longenecker and Severn Cummings agree that the 2024-2025 season has been a good year despite the ups and downs of the market.

Kadan says the bars are in good shape with lots of little ones still coming. “You can see the growth in them.”

Many decades younger than Lewis, they worked right on through January and February, as long as they had market and weather cooperated.  They’ll follow suit with Lewis, switching to crabbing. They will start in April

But Lewis said he won’’t start until probably the middle of May.  He’ll take his time switching his gear, giving his lean and hard body a rest, letting the air and water warm up, but giving little thought to staying home as he enters his eighth decade of life on the Chesapeake.

Dennis Forney has been a publisher, journalist and columnist on the Delmarva Peninsula since 1972.  He writes from his home on Grace Creek in Bozman.

On March 22, the political groups Cambridge Indivisible and Eastern Shore Indivisible held a “People’s Town Hall” for a packed house in the Mace’s Lane Middle School gymnasium. In response to Congressional Representative Andy Harris’ refusal to participate in an in-person event with constituents, this gathering featured Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin of Montgomery County. Raskin made a speech without notes before the very friendly and lively crowd and then listened to a few personal stories of attendees before answering some questions from the audience.

“I know I was not your first choice,” Raskin began, “but I heard your congressman couldn’t quite squeeze you in today.”

He continued, “I keep hearing my Republican colleagues talking about paid protesters. Is anybody out there being paid to be here today?”

The crowd yelled, “No!”

“Well,” said Raskin, “what’s interesting to me is that the people who are showing up are not paid protesters, but the people who are not showing up are paid politicians.”

He explained that town halls are supposed to be for representatives to report on what they’ve been doing and then listen to the constituents. He said he wouldn’t have shown up for the event if he’d been in Washington voting against Medicaid and trying to dismantle the government, alluding to the absent Harris.

Raskin went on to ridicule Donald Trump’s recent State of the Union address as a “seven-hour Fidel Castro style speech,” during which Trump accused NIH of spending $8 million on developing “transgender mice.” Raskin said he’d looked up the project to find that they were “transgenic mice” (injected with DNA).

“My friends,” he said, “we are being governed by morons.”

Every aspect of the US Constitution is under attack by President Trump and his associate Elon Musk, claimed Raskin. So, he announced he would give a “refresher course into the Constitution because America needs it.” After reciting the preamble, Raskin discussed Article I and the powers of Congress, including to raise taxes and armies, levy tariffs, and regulate immigration. Then, he went to Article II, the most important part of which is how to impeach a president.

“The core job of the president is simple: to take care that the laws are faithfully executed,” said Raskin, who then addressed Trump with “Do your job!”

The congressman then talked about current court cases brought against the Trump Administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. These included the attack on birthright citizenship, freezes on funding, the attempt to close the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the collection of Social Security data. Raskin said that most Americans oppose authoritarianism and that they should stand up for women’s reproductive rights, the LGBTQ community, and freedom of speech.

Raskin threw out a number of quips and quotable lines, including “A rally a day keeps the fascists away,” “In this age of artificial intelligence, we need some intelligence,” and “Elon Musk may be the richest man in the world, but he doesn’t own the American people.”

After his speech, he took some questions, such as “What can we do to fight?” and “What can we do to make the Democratic Party cool again?” (Raskin’s responses: Start by getting your data back from Elon Musk and reach out to young people.) Toward the end, a woman asked Raskin if he would ever run for president, and he answered that he would do whatever the people asked of him.

The video (with thanks to Rick Hughes) is approximately 30 minutes in length.