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June 4, 2025

Chestertown Spy

Nonpartisan and Education-based News for Chestertown

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Point of View Op-Ed

OK, What’s with the Gas Prices? By Tom Timberman

June 25, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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There is absolutely no question that all of us shudder these days, when we fill up the tank. The per gallon cost seems to increase hourly or at least several times per day. When other problems arise in our daily lives, from the garbage disposal to the weed wacker, we know whom to call. But, when 20 bucks today fills less than a half tank of my Prius, while a year ago, it topped it up, who can fix it?. 

The answer is no one organization and definitely not one person. The solution requires different people from different countries with different, sometimes clashing, interests, to agree. Think of the US Congress’ near legislative dysfunction in 2022 and you’ll  understand the dimensions of the challenge to lower American gas prices. And it’s not just in the US, they are up around the world. Well, in Kent County, on June 17, 2022, they dropped by 10 cents. 

But, it’s not just gas, I’m reminded, It’s inflation and that’s government’s responsibility. That’s true, but it’s the responsibility of many governments, not just America’s. Prices for everything are rising, they say.. Well, not everything, but for a lot of important items from milk and fruit to lumber, to used cars, prices are up over 8% from last year.. And then higher gas prices raise transportation costs for delivery of lots of things we buy, and that’s passed on to us too.  .. . , 

Inflation is usually defined as the loss of purchasing power of currencies.  There are several explanations for this phenomenon, but for our situation, the reasons appear to be what economists call Cost-Push inflation. This occurs when  production inputs and directly related supply chain costs suddenly rise. The events of the past two plus years provided systemic shocks to global production and trade.  

Our current debilitating context began in late 2019 and early 2020, when the Covid-19 Pandemic and its successor variations, began to infect millions of people around the world. The hospitalizations, serious illnesses and mounting death tolls quickly impacted the global workforce and affected all economic sectors. Supply chains broke down, major ports became seriously backlogged for lack of people to unload cargoes or drivers to haul the containers to market. Delays and shortages mounted and demand declined leading to price rises across the board. This situation is a classic example of Cost Push Inflation

But, back to the price of gas. Demand for oil/gas has been rising for the past six months. But, In major producing countries , US and foreign corporations that earlier cut production in the face of declining demand dropped, have happily watched as the prices of gas everywhere kept climbing. They have been reluctant to increase production in response to increasing demand, for a simple reason: their production costs are lower and their sale prices are astronomical. 

In a March 2022 survey of 141 U.S. oil producers asking them why they were holding back production, 59% said they were under investor pressure. The bottom line is, oil companies are seeing huge profits and are using the money for stock buybacks to raise stock prices. BP, Shell, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, Total Energies, Eni, and Equinor will give between $38 and $41 billion to shareholders through buyback programs this year..What’s not to like? 

And then on February 24, 2022 a major oil and gas producing country, Russia, invaded a major grain, fertilizer and vegetable oils exporter, Ukraine.  Four months on, the death and destruction imposed on the Ukrainian people has introduced another global shortage – life threatening – food. 

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed

Ukrainian Refugees and the Eastern Shore by Tom Timberman

June 4, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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Kent County isn’t the only Eastern Shore county with a declining, aging population.  But, it’s Maryland’s smallest, with 19,198 and a median age approaching 50 (2020 Census) and it’s where my wife Judy and I live. 

Thus, when I began to write about the death and destruction Russia has forced on Ukraine and watched the number of Ukrainians fleeing their homes rise over 5 million, I thought of Kent County’s demographics  However, I know there are other Eastern Shore communities that might be interested in sponsoring these innocent victims for resettlement in our nine counties so am sharing my research.

Brief General Description of Average Ukrainian Refugees: 

They are younger (27-40), many are mothers with 1-2 children, are educated (14-15 years the norm), highly literate (national rate 99%), speak English, very responsible, self-reliant, and are highly motivated to work hard to support/raise their families. And they are tough and resilient, as we know.. 

Documentation:

The US Government has responded very positively to the the plight of these millions of desperate people and will allow an initial 100,000 to enter the United States based on the “parole authority” of the Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), for an an initial period of 2 years. The entry document is called an I-134. 

DHS has begun to introduce a program called U4U that will manage the entry of the 100,000 parolees. Over the next month or two, it will create interactive websites on-line. The other, traditional visa options are also available, but are much more time-consuming. To participate in U4U, the Ukrainian must have lived in Ukraine on 2/11/22. 

As soon as the Ukrainians are settled in the United States, they may apply for a work permit, but the approval takes on average 7 months to be granted. 

U4U Program Details:

No Federal funding supports U4U, but a number of 501 C3 organizations became operational to  help transition the Afghan refugees or asylum beneficiaries, into the United States. They are now working with the Ukrainians as well and have recruited large numbers of volunteers. 

The U4U program is entirely dependent on “sponsors” (individuals, companies, foundations, churches, etc.)  It is the sponsor, not the refugee, who initiates the process using application form I-134. I’m working with one of the major sponsorship support organizations. 

There is a large Ukrainian diaspora in America, mostly in major cities, e.g  Washington, D.C., NYC, Chicago and Indianapolis. They are actively sponsoring relatives, friends, friends of friends, business associates or suppliers, colleagues etc. At the moment, the diaspora sponsor activities are centered in Frankfurt, KY.  

Those with these direct connections have been in touch with each other since the Russians began to surround Ukraine in 2021 and then exploded after the  2/24/22 Russian invasion.  However, there are many without these relationships. 

DHS’ cost estimate that prospective sponsors must accept and demonstrate capacity to provide, is $13,140 per person, per year.  However, the Department is in the early stages of  setting up its operation, so it is likely this figure will change as it is broken down more specifically, i.e. per child, per teen, per adult male, female and adjusted to geographic location.  

Personal Experience:

I’m working with friends at the State and Homeland Security Departments and large, long-established organizations that have been working in the crisis resettlement arena for years. A tentative target for Kent resettlement, depending on sponsors, is 5- 10 Ukrainian families or 30-50 people  We’ve decided that the best sponsor is one who can offer employment, housing and 6 months of financial support. This argues for a sponsor group, private sector employers, humanitarian organizations, several churches or family clusters..

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed, Opinion

What’s Going on with the US Economy? It’s complicated. By Tom Timberman

May 14, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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First Some Statistics:

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released final data on the economy’s 2021 performance; from October to December, GDP grew at an impressive rate of 6.9%. For the total 12 months, the increase was a very respectable 5.7%.  The GDP projection for 2022 is 3.9% . 

Six million jobs were added during 2021 including 473,000 in the manufacturing sector. And extending, the period to end-March 2022 the total rose to 8 million. America’s overall economic growth and jobs-added, outpaced any other wealthy country in the G-7.  

Current Reality Check:

OK, but with record inflation rates, particularly in gas prices (East Coast average $4.28, West Coast $5.75), it doesn’t feel like a great economy, despite the stats. Why?

There are a number of reasons and the Federal Reserve has intervened recently to force inflation down by increasing the interest rates banks and their clients pay for loans. 

  1. US Wages have increased 5.5% which contributes to higher service delivery &  production costs. The end-March Personal Consumption Expenditures Index noted a 6.6% cost hike for an average consumer’s purchases.

  2. Pandemic Related Supply Chain Issues, e.g. China Lock-downs, factory closures, worker absences in other centers of export production and difficulty obtaining manufacturing or assembly input items.  And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Breadbasket of Europe) has severely limited agricultural, fertilizer and vegetable oils production and export. Exacerbating the above, is the unprecedented increase in prices charged by the ten largest international shipping companies.  Their 2019 profit level was $23 Billion, but in 2022 it is projected to be circa $300 Billion.

  3. International Limits on Oil Production has led to the widespread gas pump shock, referred to above. Much increased gas prices are also contributing significantly to current inflation levels linked to shipping and delivery.  What happened?
    • During pandemic, oil producing countries reduced production an average of 10%, when global demand dropped. They’ve welcomed the record profits as demand has risen and are refusing to increase production or doing so very slowly. For example, Shell Oil (largest European provider) just announced its first 2022 quarter profit, a record breaking $9.1 Billion.

    • The USG asked Saudi Arabia and its partners in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to match increasing demand with increased production levels. The answer was no because, they said, it’s the Western sanctions on Russia that are responsible for the crisis.   

Economic Philosophies Impact Policies:

No surprise. However, it’s interesting that various commentators describe President Biden’s economic approach as similar to President Lincoln’s. The Republican Lincoln believed workers, not employers, were the engines of long term economic growth. The wealthy Southern Democrats of the day objected saying strengthening property rights of the rich should be the priority. They claimed to know best where in the US economy to invest to increase their fortunes, thus expanding them and the economy at the same time.    

The Federal Government should, in Biden’s view, nurture, protect and train/educate workers at younger ages, because given access to resources and a much improved public infrastructure, they would work hardest to grow the economy across all sectors. The post-WWII US economic policies were based on the belief that the government should manage the economy to benefit everyone, not just the rich. 

In the 1980s, President Reagan introduced a reinterpreted Austrian Economic School policy (fierce free marketers, anti-government economic intervention). His Administration reduced taxes largely for the top 10% of income earners & large corporations, to ignite private capital investment in more efficient production of consumer goods at lower prices. President Trump did much the same and cut more Federal regulations. 

American economists’ continuing concern since the 1970s  is the widening  income gap between the top 5-10% and everyone else. The former are increasing their wealth much faster than the middle (size shrinking) and lower earners (size growing). In 2018 The median  range of middle income Americans was $58, 100 – 86,600  and upper from $126,100 – 207,400.  The immigrant (South Africa) American Elon Musk’s personal fortune is estimated at $266 Billion making him the richest man in the world.   

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed, Opinion

Have US Political Parties Outlived their Usefulness? By Tom Timberman

April 30, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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Definition:

A political party is a group of people working together to establish, promote or gain acceptance for principles, processes and positions of governance, they hold in common. In a democracy, political parties actively support their members as candidates in elections who, if successful ,will enact as law or execute as policy, preferences they share.

If Everything is Politicized, How do Parties Govern?

The poisonous, near dysfunctional national politics we are experiencing now may reflect an emerging critical fact: our 18th and 19th Century two party construct is inadequate for the 21st Century’s black/white, hyper- emotional and violent social and political reality. Or it may be something else.

The US Constitution describes America’s form of government as a Representative Democracy. It needs the will of a majority of voters (James Madison:”“derives all its powers directly or indirectly from the great body of the people.”) to be honestly represented and honestly deliberated from a single perspective, albeit with multiple interpretations: how best to advance and improve the lives of the American people.

More Parties?

Possibly, in 2022 our political system just requires more than 2 major political parties to deliver to the 3 branches of the US Government, the myriad of opinions, concerns and substantive needs of 332 million Americans. One possible, if unlikely, parliamentary result of having more active, participating parties, could be the formation in Congress of coalitions behind policy positions; compromise would be essential for them to survive.

Parties and Voting Ballots Obsolete?

Also, in the 21st Century, the communications revolution could have made today’s political parties and hard copy election ballots, obsolete. Cyberworld allows any blogger, Twitter-meister or cloud-based messaging service to function like a political party. Like minded people can coalesce and amplify their thoughts to the world, based on facts or fables.

A 2022 Washington, D.C. proposal now under consideration, would allow the electorate to cast their votes entirely online, using smartphones, laptops or tablets. Massive objections will erupt. But, updating our electoral systems does make sense; it would be faster, cheaper, easier and encourage more people to vote.
Power is a Party’s Policy Vehicle: Why was the Whig Party organized in the 1680s? Put simply, to empower the collective energy of an expanding group of upper class Brits who were strongly opposed to absolute monarchy. The Magna Carta was a 1215 AD British precedent for limiting monarchical power. By 1930, the major social changes resulting from industrialization (rise of the working man voter) and WWI (weakened rigid antebellum class system) brought about a broad based British democracy.

Something Worth thinking About?

It’s also possible that the reasons for our current ruptured national sentiment are found in changes to the general national character of the American people. The living context in which generations exist shapes who we are. Mass male voting and loosened class boundaries certainly did in the UK, affecting politics and much more.
In the early 1900s, Americans were globally perceived as honest, trustworthy, reasonable and very practical problem-solvers. The Persian Empire hired two Americans circa 1906. to manage its finances and thwart rampant corruption and disorder.

Again, just me, but for many Americans, our information and opinions are no longer informed by personal interactions with family, friends, coworkers, team members and neighbors, people we trust. We may have argued, but we listened and learned from each other. Now we react, possibly emotionally, go on line and discover others agree. Before long we’re in a self perpetuating, possibly expanding, cocoon of firm “belief”. Elon Musk is poised to remove guardrails and standards from Twitter, possibly allowing even more convinced people cocoons to form and really go global.

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed

The Russians may have Nukes, but the Rest, not so Much by Tom Timberman

April 9, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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Some former colleagues and friends with substantial military experience as unit commanders in combat, described why Russia’s invasion is stumbling.  This despite, what should have been an overwhelming conventional warfare advantage.  

Planning Assumptions: This has been examined by the media in some detail. Putin’s intelligence and military advisors were not accustomed to speaking truth to power….and for very good reasons. They also assumed the West’s response to an invasion would be nothing more that that in 2014, which was manageable.

Thus, missing was  any evaluation of the development since 2014 of opposition to  Putin’s Russia and the commitment of a majority of the Ukrainian population  (particularly the young) to a Western oriented independence.  Similarly absent, was information about the training and rearmament of their military, particularly special forces, by NATO countries over the same 7 plus year period. 

Neither naysayers nor critical media were permitted to deter Putin from believing the invasion would lead quickly to the capture of the capital Kiev and the removal of the elected Zelensky Government. The identity of the Ukrainian slated to become the new president is not kn0own, but his subservience to the Kremlin is a given. 

Russian Military Problems: First, we’ve learned many of the 170,000 or more troops that attacked Ukraine on February 24, 2022 were conscripts who did not know they were going to war. A morale problem?

Weather: February and March bring snow, sleet and rain to Ukraine. Thus, thick mud is everywhere. A serious problem, evidently ignored when the decision was made to rely heavily on tanks and other mobile weapon systems. Thus, the invading forces were confined to Ukraine’s narrow roads because the fields were mush. These conditions seriously reduced the ability of Russia’s armor to mass or tactically maneuver.  Also, relying on tanks principally, when the initial targets were large cities, introduced a bad, vulnerable urban environment for maneuvering.

Logistics: The Russians never organized a separate logistics command responsible for providing fuel, food, shelter, clothing etc. to field deployments. Each unit organized their own or, as the intercepts indicate,  desperately asked for provisions, especially for fuel. The number of abandoned out-of-gas tanks testifies to the serious logistical muddle.   

Leadership: No commander-in-chief for the invasion was appointed. There are four senior generals, each of whom is fighting his own war.  One of my friends described the general running the Mariupol operations as competent and effective. The other three he described as “soup sandwiches”.

The Future:  Little improvement in the logistics situation has been noted since the early weeks. However, one known change that might improve Russia’s military fortunes, is warm weather drying the mud. 

The severe economic, financial and personal sanctions the EU and NATO nations with US leadership, quickly imposed are having an impact, although oddly, Russian support for Putin is increasing. And then there are conflicting statements from Moscow, re its intent to transfer forces to the Donbas and annex this Eastern slice of Ukraine?   

Or those ongoing negotiations hosted by Turkey which one day seem hopeful of a settlement and the next not so much. The basis is fluid, but seems to include Ukraine’s agreement to neutrality in return for allied action-oriented security guarantees and the removal of Russian troops. The current sticking point is what land concessions would Zelensky accept: recognize Crimea as a legitimate part of Russia? Or more? 

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County. 

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed

Ukraine, Russia, NATO, EU and the US by Tom Timberman

April 2, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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Many of us who should know better, and those under forty, thought a war in Europe would never happen again and definitely not in the 21st Century. Maybe we got too used to Putin during his first 10 years as he rebuilt the Russian economy, made Western-sounding speeches, while investing much of the substantially increased national revenues, in the military. The first speech he made to the Duma in August 1999, when appointed prime minister, mentioned his two major policy themes: (1) restoring Russia’s natural great power status and  (2) imposing greater discipline on the Russian people. They haven’t changed. . 

In terms of where we are now, thanks to Putin, NATO and EU members are united in strong opposition to Russia’s unprovoked aggression and a willingness to punish him and others. Moreover, there is an unusual deep well of admiration for the courage of the Ukrainian people and their ferocious defense of their country’s independence. President Zelensky has emerged as a globally acknowledged inspirational wartime leader.    

Putin’s Early Expectations Failed

Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine may well have resulted from the failure of his initial effort to bully it into submission by surrounding the country with 200,000 troops. To avoid looking weak at home and abroad, he  invaded.  The Russian military’s inept initial operations were met by clever, agile and effective Ukrainian tactics that probably explain Putin’s sudden escalation to savage brutality.

Russia’s dependence on tanks and other armored vehicles led to miles-long convoys, sitting ducks for Ukrainian anti-tank weapons and ambushes.  The result: the latter now have more tanks than they had prior to the invasion and the former, hundreds fewer.  

Putin employed the same progression of techniques in the Second Chechen War (1999-2009) to grind its “insolent” people into submission; they had dared to declare independence after the USSR collapsed. Chechnya’s months of tough resistance, led to the Russian destruction of their capital, Grozny with an estimated loss of 30,000 lives. In 2022, Russia is largely in control of a very restive, Muslim population, closely assessing events in Ukraine..     

Moscow’s Ukrainian cake walk turned into something of  a death march. Recent estimates of their KIA toll is between 15-18,000 — in one month. However, the preponderant Russian distance assault of artillery and missiles is taking a toll, but not yet on the spirit or resilience of the Ukrainians. 

US, NATO and the EU: Revived Resolve and Collaboration

NATO – President Biden in 15 months has reacquired America’s earlier title: “Leader of the Free World”, no small achievement.. He and his administration have taken full advantage of Putin’s threatening encirclement and ill advised invasion of Ukraine, to refocus governments on Russia’s continued security threat.  Putin’s recent mutterings about nukes and CBW,  further tightened NATO commitment and acceptance that. Russia is the Arch Enemy of the Trans-Atlantic Community. US forces in NATO Europe now number some 83,000.

Germany’s post WWII  pacifist-lite approach to military involvement, has dramatically changed.  Berlin is sending military and financial aid to Ukraine and increased its defense budget substantially to improve its military capabilities. It is also prepared to accept Ukrainian refugees without visas. 

EU – The European Union is an economic/trading bloc of 27 countries with a common currency.  Some members, especially the richest,Germany, became overly energy-dependent on Russia. But, Putin’s War saw Berlin recently refuse to license the operation of Nordstrom 2, an $11 Billion investment in a Russian gas pipeline.  Berlin has also warned the German people there may be an energy short-fall. 

The policy coalescence among NATO, EU and the US represents a sea change from the 2009 and 20014 Russian invasions of Georgia and Eastern Ukraine, respectively.  Then, sanctions were haphazardly applied by some Western European states and the US.  However, the vicious, deadly assault on Ukraine shocked Americans and Europeans into accepting that the Russian threat to their security, democracy and prosperity never left. The close collaboration on sanctions now is evident: US/EU consult/agree; Europeans apply them first followed by the US.

Authoritarianism Interrupted? –  Hungary  & Poland (NATO and EU members) have been moving towards authoritarianism for years, while improving relations with Russia. This has changed. Poland plays a very important role in refugee reception/transfer (Hungary too) and as a transition point for military materiel and and emergency relief items. Whether this represents more than a pause in their politics, remains to be seen.

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed, Opinion

Is this Really the Time to Rewrite the Constitution? Fifteen States say Yes by Tom Timberman

March 28, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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I’m probably not alone on the Eastern Shore in believing Americans in March 2022 already have more than enough on their minds. We’ve recently exceeded 970,000 COVID deaths, but the omicron infections are declining significantly, though the US still records above 1200 deaths every 24 hours. Understandably, Americans were losing patience with vaccinations, masking and school restrictions. Many are now being loosened or removed.  

Meanwhile, our economy is recovering with substantial job gains, but continues to deal with pandemic-generated supply/demand and inflation problems. The latter became sufficiently serious that the Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates. But, our political division and near dysfunction may be healing as a result of Putin’s  brutal invasion of Ukraine. Most Americans support the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its Allies and cheer the stiff and courageous resistance by Ukrainians and their president. 

Thus, I was depressed to learn the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is pressing to convene a Constitutional Convention to consider amendments aimed at limiting the power and jurisdiction of the Federal Government. Fifteen states already have passed legislation supporting a Convention and 17 others  are considering similar action.  

Why? Because states rights versus Federal authority has been and continues to be, a readily available platform for both Democrats and Republicans to justify their partisan desiderata of the moment. The usual issues involved are: race, power, elections, sex and money.  

The following briefly traces the  two century evolution of this US political/constitutional conflict. 

Back to the Beginning

The Articles of Confederation: 

Soon after the initial American/British fighting at Lexington and Concord, the 2nd Continental Congress met to chart the way forward as they fought to separate the 13 colonies from the British crown.  Thomas Jefferson’s eloquent Declaration of Independence explained the rationale for independence and the Congress also created a committee to propose an administrative structure to meet the former colonies’ interim needs.   

In November 1777, the draft Articles of Confederation was approved. They described an alliance of 13 independent states “… a firm league of friendship entered into for their common defense”; not a national government. As George Washington would discover the Confederation had no authority to levy requirements on the states to provide the recruits or the financial and in-kind support,h his forces required.  

The Constitution of the United States:

Representatives of five states met in September 1786 intending simply, to revise the Articles. But, it quickly became obvious that revision of such a decentralized concept could not serve as the new country’s government. 

Fifty-five men wrote the Constitution between May and September 1787, which was finally ratified in June 1788. It established the United States as a  union of its people, not a confederation of independent states. It created three independent branches of Government: a bicameral legislature, an executive led by a president and a judiciary led by a chief justice.  Each of the three Branches had enumerated Constitutional powers. . 

The Bill of Rights:

Americans emerged from the Revolution with a legitimate concern that their just ratified Constitution needed express protections for its citizens.  Otherwise, they feared, future generations could manipulate it to substitute another disdainful, overbearing master, for the will of the people. The result was the Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the Constitution. The Tenth Amendment itself generally clarified the relationship between the Federal and state governments, but contained the Reserved Powers Clause: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people” 

This clause has been employed frequently ever since to support the Constitutionality of a claim of superior states’ rights. 

States Rights in the 19th Century

Slavery, and the Civil War 

In the 1830s, Democratic Southern state leaders referred to the Reserved Powers Clause to support their claimed right to refuse to abide by Congressional laws, signed by the president. If, they asserted, their voters wanted to enslave Blacks or take land from Native Americans, that was their democratic right. The result 30 years later, was the devastating Civil War.

Reconstruction and Jim Crow

Slavery may have ended, but the former confederate states were not prepared to accept the racial equality of Blacks and whites.  Thus, their political leaders enacted the Jim Crow laws which segregated the one from the other and comprehensively discriminated against African Americans. It took almost another century for Jim Crow to end. Racial equality and equal justice may take longer.

In 1868, the 14th Amendment was added to the Constitution clarifying whether states or the Federal government, had superior authority vis a vis American citizens: “No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.” Two years later, a 15th Amendment guaranteed that: “the right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color or previous condition of servitude.”

The Civil War changed American federalism forever, but until the 1920s and 30s, the actual powers the central government exercised were limited.  

Post War Economic Impact on Politics.

The Civil War reversed the regional economic balance. Antebellum, the South was the richest region in America, based primarily on the growth, processing and sale of cotton. The North (the Union), under  Republican Administrations, had experienced a wartime industrial boom. However, the Wall Street donors began  to object to the Republican Party’s post-war economic policies: too pro poor, too pro business regulation. The Party in 1872 backed away from its support for workers, in return for Wall Street’s continued largess. Republican U.S. Grant was re-elected president.   

It was a serious political blunder. The 1873 – 77 Panic (depression) sank many banks and railroads and in 1874 cost the Republicans, half their House seats, ceding the majority to the Democrats. In 1885, Grover Cleveland won the presidency, the first Democrat since the Civil War.     

States Rights in the 20th Century

In the early 1920s, some states opposed the Federal extension of business regulatory authority as an invasion of their own responsibilities. Other people,  were similarly irritated by states’ efforts to do the same, i.e. regulate commerce..  

The onslaught of the Great Depression changed the conversation dramatically and stimulated a 20th Century tendency for Americans to look to the Federal Government for help when they were in desperate straits. In 2020, 21 and early 22, this trust in Washington to solve big problems seems to have waned.  

WWII reintroduced race into this Fed/State debate.  On 12/07/1941 (Pearl Harbor Day), the United States was  largely segregated either de facto (North) or de jure (South) as were the US Armed Forces. Moreover, Blacks were discouraged from volunteering to serve in their nation’s military and were not being hired for the jobs created by the war-related  boom.  FDR issued Executive Order 8802 correcting this discrimination, but only after thousands of African Americans threatened to march on Washington

Harry Truman abandoned his original Missouri-bred anti-Black attitude after learning that two returning African American soldiers in uniform had been murdered by white Southern mobs. He introduced a civil rights agenda and in 1948 issued Executive Order #9981 desegregating the US military.

Federal power grew during the administrations of FDR, Harry Truman, Ike, JFK and LBJ via their huge nationwide programs, e.g. the New Deal, New Frontier, Great Society etc. However, in terms of States Rights, it was the national American Civil Rights Movement and Southern whites’ violent, deadly opposition that dominated the subject in the 20th Century.

Harry Truman wasn’t the only Southern reared Democratic president to surrender earlier prejudices to the superior rights of the Constitution.  Lyndon Johnson (Texas) signed into law the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Both had passed Congress with strong bipartisan support..

The Reagan Era (1981-89): States Rights vs the Feds, Civil & Voting Rights & Self-Sufficiency 

President Reagan’s  two terms in office substantially impacted the last decades of the 20th Century and beyond. His foreign policy successes were signal achievements, while his optimistic imagery of the “Shining city on a Hill”helped improve the national mood. 

However, domestically his early campaign statement that the Federal Government was the problem, soured millions of Americans on Washington. The 2022 public belief that the national government is overbearing and robbing citizens of individual freedoms, is an amplified, modern manifestation. 

Reagan also delivered, perhaps inadvertently, an early, discouraging message to African Americans. He chose to deliver a campaign speech in Neshoba County, Mississippi where, in 1964, three civil rights volunteers (2 white, 1 Black) had been kidnapped and murdered by white local police officers. The following except from his Neshoba remarks did please a number of American politicians:   

“I believe in states rights, I believe in people doing as much as they can for themselves at the community level and at the private level. I believe we’ve distorted the balance of our government today by giving powers never intended in the Constitution, to the Federal establishment.”  

The President’s early emphasis on individual responsibility was an early alert to his Administration’s lower emphasis on Safety Net priorities.  He reduced budget support for Medicaid, Medicare, school lunch programs and others. 

In eight years, the Reagan Administration halted 30 years of work by his predecessors to overturn state laws that restricted minority Federal Civil and Election Rights, An early example: was his decision to end funding to enforce civil rights’ violations. On a more positive note, President Reagan did declare Martin Luther King, Jr.’s’ birthday, a national holiday. 

States Rights and Electoral Politics march towards 2022

Political Party Transformations

By the time the 21st Century began, the two principal political parties (Democratic and Republican) had changed or exchanged major planks in their platforms. Most significant was the post Civil War gradual evolution of the Democrats away from its traditional pro-slavery, pro-Jim Crow, racist principles.  This shift culminated in the 1964 and 65 signature of the Civil and Voting Rights Acts, by Democratic President Lyndon Johnson. LBJ knew this would be the death knell of his Party’s  long political domination of the former confederate states. And it was. 

The Republican Party adjusted its earlier abolitionist views, revisited its states’ rights portfolio and adapted its conservative positions to encompass local Southern opinion. They replaced the Democrats as the majority Party in the South and have used the States Rights platform to further their developing positions on abortion, freedom of religion, corporate political rights and individual freedoms versus alleged Federal encroachment. 

Following President Trump’s 2020 loss to Joe Biden, voter fraud and politicization of election management plus removal of pandemic mandates became included on states rights agendas of those controlled by Republicans. 

States Rights and the US Supreme Court in the 21st Century:

 Electoral politics writ larger became the subject of judicial challenges citing different parts of the Constitution.  In 2010, the Supreme Court in Citizens United vs. the FEC, decided the 1st Amendment’s free speech guarantees also applied to corporations’, non-profits and union’s, campaign contributions.  The Federal Election Commission cannot, the Court determined, restrict them. 

Three years later, in Shelby County (Alabama) v. Holder (2013), the Supreme Court decided that Section 4 (a) of the Voting Rights Act (1965) requiring certain Southern states to obtain DOJ clearance before changing election laws, was no longer necessary. 

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed

The Ukraine War and the American Revolution by Tom Timberman

March 5, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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The courageous people of Ukraine and their impressive war-time, freedom-fighter  President, have aroused a personal admiration and sense of connection, that is new.  

I’ve served as a civilian advisor or team leader in five of the wars in which the US has been involved.  Then, I was a small cog in a major US effort to help rebuild the lives of the civilian victims caught in the war zones.  Possibly as EMT, or emergency room staff or police or fire fighters react, I felt deep concern and a powerful urgency to do my job and make things better. But, that was all.

But, Ukraine is different. I’m an American observer, not directly involved, so why the bonding sensation? After some reflection, I think I understand.  I’ve been researching US political evolution from the Revolution to the present for the past 6 weeks. It’s highly likely, the Ukrainians reminded me of our own struggle for independence and a participatory democracy, rather than foreign despotic rule.  

Great Britain was the powerful super power of the 18th Century. The 3 plus million  Americans were subjects of the king. We belonged to and had been created by, the British, they said. We were a principal source of revenue to London and spoke the same language. But, we were not equals, we were colonists. 

Initially, George III and his aristocratic government found it amusing that a flyspeck like America would think of challenging the might of the British Empire. The generals believed the early armed local resistance would soon be squashed.  Does any of this sound familiar? It should.

Putin personally believes Ukraine belongs to Mother Russia and that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the worst calamity of the 20th Century.  He embarked on a 20 plus year campaign to rebuild an approximation of Soviet or former imperial, power, by intimidating/invading former “constituent republics”, e.g. Georgia, Chechnya, Moldova, Armenia and now Ukraine. Belarus appears part of his restoration plan and seems on the brink of incorporation.  

There are 44 million Ukrainian citizens and all of them under 60 have been reacting defiantly and very actively since 200,000 troops surrounded them and then attacked.  Men, women and children are making Molotov cocktails, feeding their soldiers and fellow neighborhood fighters and  helping top the Russian forces from entering their major cities. They have succeeded in blunting the assault, but Moscow has now escalated to a new level of death and destruction. 

Remember the minute men, and the Valley Forge enlistees freezing at Valley Forge?   The Ukrainians are facing no energy, no lights, no heat in their own snow filled winter and are being bombed every night. But, they are going to make this war very costly for the invaders. Groups of families are standing in front of tanks.  Farmers are shooting down Russian helicopters and computer nerds, hackers are sending photos and narrative into Russia, including the names of Russian KIA and penetrating their cyber security.

They are doing this because none of them want to give up what they’ve fought so hard to get:in 2014: freedom, independence and their own Western oriented, democratic government. 

It’s their faces on the TV, their posts on social media and the scenes of devastated houses and apartments and their enthusiasm and spirit, that struck me.  

They are us, several centuries later. 

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed, Opinion

Putin, Russia, and Ukraine: a Moscow Miscalculation? 

February 21, 2022 by Tom Timberman

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In the fall of 2021, when Putin began surrounding Ukraine with what now numbers some 150,000 military forces (41% of total), he could well have misread America’s readiness to react.  The Pandemic’s deadly toll was mounting, the people appeared sharply divided and President Biden was losing public support, seemingly distracted by constant domestic political animus. Moreover, some NATO Allies had begun to act independently vis a vis Russia (unity cracking?).  And the most powerful among them, Germany, was losing its long time, very effective chancellor, friend of Washington, Angela Merkel. And then there was the moderate Western response in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea.

But, the US under Biden has asserted itself powerfully, after a full year working to repair the damage to its standing and relationship with its European allies. Moreover, Putin’s continued reinforcement of troops, served to solidify the Europeans behind America’s tough response. The US, with its allies, undertook a very deliberate diplomatic effort over several weeks to deter the Russians while underscoring the serious, damaging economic and financial penalties Russia would face. 

The result: Moscow’s clearly unacceptable demands that the US/NATO sign legally enforceable documents withdrawing NATO Forces to their 1997 positions, agreeing never to accept Ukraine as a NATO member and to remove Western missile bases from Allied countries contiguous to Russia. 

The US and NATO Allies rejected them all, but at the same time provided topics for future negotiations addressing Moscow’s concerns. Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov reacted somewhat positively to future discussions, while repeating Russia had no intention of attacking Ukraine and continuing to move units closer to the border.   

So what is going on?  Why is Putin avoiding the several off-ramps on offer?  There are, I believe, several reasons.  First, Putin cannot be seen to back down, fearing the Russians and others would begin to think him weak, not all powerful. Second, is his background: teenage champion of martial arts, former KGB Lt. Col who insists the collapse of the Soviet Union was the 20th Century’s worst catastrophe, probably was for him and his colleagues. And third he asserts the mythology, once popular decades ago, that Russia and Ukraine are the same nation. He claims both are descended from an ancient 9th Century principality Kyivan Rus and share the same Orthodox Christian religion. Not true and definitely does not reflect modern Ukrainian attitudes  As someone said, it’s like Texas claiming direct descent from William the Conqueror. 

The likely outcome? Russia invades Donbas and adds it to its earlier seizure of Ukrainian Crimea, leaving the rest of the country alone. The Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, has already recognized two parts of Eastern Ukraine as “independent” (Donetsk and Luhansk, possibly supporting Putin’s seizure of them. Moscow may then begin withdrawing most of the 150,000 and accept the US/ NATO invitation to negotiate. 

There is a practical problem: Russia’s GDP is smaller than California’s and adding more responsibilities may challenge future budgets.     

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed

Checking in on the US Economy by Tom Timberman

December 15, 2021 by Tom Timberman

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The recent arrival of another COVID variant and the familiar spikes in infections and deaths, after 2 years of pandemic, is yet more depressing. If Americans ever needed some good news, it’s now. And we have it, but it doesn’t appear to be cheering anyone up. As Bill Clinton once said: “It’s the economy stupid.” And it is.

Starting with the macro numbers, over the past three quarters, America’s real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 7.8%. Between 2000 – 2019, the average GDP was 2.2% and never reached 3%. The Federal Reserve projects 2021` will see an average of 5.9%. US disposable income grew 3% after inflation from January to October 2021. In 2018, the increase was 1.7% and in 2019, 0.5%.

And since January, unemployment has fallen by 1/3 and the Boston Globe reports (12/09/21 edition) that over the year now ending, lowest paid wages have increased by some 8%, but inflation gobbled up 5.5%. Bottom line, increase in wages is ahead of inflation, The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the job increase in November was 210,000, OK, but not extraordinary. However, the most impressive data point is that in the months since January, the economy, has added 4.5 million jobs, the largest number in any administration’s first seven months.

A curious result of recent Bureau of Labor Statistics polling doesn’t help much. The Bureau asks two different groups questions about the economy, Employers and Households and generally expects the two responses to be similar. Last month’s however, were not. Employers said economy was good to very good, while consumers, Households, said it wasn’t.

The public’s dismal sense of the economy, contradicts the standard measures as per above. Moreover, businesses are making huge capital investments which reflects confidence in the economy and its future, while consumers are buying at a high rate. Something they wouldn’t do if America was on the edge of recession.

So what is going on? First, rising inflation is frightening to many Americans who have gone through its negative personal impacts in the past, this despite the fact incomes are keeping pace. Second, there is considerable attention being paid in the media and on social media, to inflation. Much more than to the “Good News” economic statistics. Repetition eventually convinces people, inflation is a VERY BIG PROBLEM. Third, the price of gasoline, not Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, is what makes an impression.

And beyond this dull data, the hyper publicized Congressional decision whether to raise the debt ceiling and the familiar squeal that the NATIONAL DEBT WILL GO UP and the country will go bankrupt, doesn’t help. Given we finance our deficits largely from US debt instruments bought by Americans, the deficits/national debt shouldn’t induce panic.

Our economy is making an amazing recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis, much better than other major countries’.

We should be enjoying the holidays with our families and friends and not be seduced into unnecessary worry.

Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.

 

The Spy Newspapers may periodically employ the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the clarity and accuracy of our content.

Filed Under: Op-Ed

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