In the fall of 2021, when Putin began surrounding Ukraine with what now numbers some 150,000 military forces (41% of total), he could well have misread America’s readiness to react. The Pandemic’s deadly toll was mounting, the people appeared sharply divided and President Biden was losing public support, seemingly distracted by constant domestic political animus. Moreover, some NATO Allies had begun to act independently vis a vis Russia (unity cracking?). And the most powerful among them, Germany, was losing its long time, very effective chancellor, friend of Washington, Angela Merkel. And then there was the moderate Western response in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea.
But, the US under Biden has asserted itself powerfully, after a full year working to repair the damage to its standing and relationship with its European allies. Moreover, Putin’s continued reinforcement of troops, served to solidify the Europeans behind America’s tough response. The US, with its allies, undertook a very deliberate diplomatic effort over several weeks to deter the Russians while underscoring the serious, damaging economic and financial penalties Russia would face.
The result: Moscow’s clearly unacceptable demands that the US/NATO sign legally enforceable documents withdrawing NATO Forces to their 1997 positions, agreeing never to accept Ukraine as a NATO member and to remove Western missile bases from Allied countries contiguous to Russia.
The US and NATO Allies rejected them all, but at the same time provided topics for future negotiations addressing Moscow’s concerns. Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov reacted somewhat positively to future discussions, while repeating Russia had no intention of attacking Ukraine and continuing to move units closer to the border.
So what is going on? Why is Putin avoiding the several off-ramps on offer? There are, I believe, several reasons. First, Putin cannot be seen to back down, fearing the Russians and others would begin to think him weak, not all powerful. Second, is his background: teenage champion of martial arts, former KGB Lt. Col who insists the collapse of the Soviet Union was the 20th Century’s worst catastrophe, probably was for him and his colleagues. And third he asserts the mythology, once popular decades ago, that Russia and Ukraine are the same nation. He claims both are descended from an ancient 9th Century principality Kyivan Rus and share the same Orthodox Christian religion. Not true and definitely does not reflect modern Ukrainian attitudes As someone said, it’s like Texas claiming direct descent from William the Conqueror.
The likely outcome? Russia invades Donbas and adds it to its earlier seizure of Ukrainian Crimea, leaving the rest of the country alone. The Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, has already recognized two parts of Eastern Ukraine as “independent” (Donetsk and Luhansk, possibly supporting Putin’s seizure of them. Moscow may then begin withdrawing most of the 150,000 and accept the US/ NATO invitation to negotiate.
There is a practical problem: Russia’s GDP is smaller than California’s and adding more responsibilities may challenge future budgets.
Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.
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