Many of us who should know better, and those under forty, thought a war in Europe would never happen again and definitely not in the 21st Century. Maybe we got too used to Putin during his first 10 years as he rebuilt the Russian economy, made Western-sounding speeches, while investing much of the substantially increased national revenues, in the military. The first speech he made to the Duma in August 1999, when appointed prime minister, mentioned his two major policy themes: (1) restoring Russia’s natural great power status and (2) imposing greater discipline on the Russian people. They haven’t changed. .
In terms of where we are now, thanks to Putin, NATO and EU members are united in strong opposition to Russia’s unprovoked aggression and a willingness to punish him and others. Moreover, there is an unusual deep well of admiration for the courage of the Ukrainian people and their ferocious defense of their country’s independence. President Zelensky has emerged as a globally acknowledged inspirational wartime leader.
Putin’s Early Expectations Failed
Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine may well have resulted from the failure of his initial effort to bully it into submission by surrounding the country with 200,000 troops. To avoid looking weak at home and abroad, he invaded. The Russian military’s inept initial operations were met by clever, agile and effective Ukrainian tactics that probably explain Putin’s sudden escalation to savage brutality.
Russia’s dependence on tanks and other armored vehicles led to miles-long convoys, sitting ducks for Ukrainian anti-tank weapons and ambushes. The result: the latter now have more tanks than they had prior to the invasion and the former, hundreds fewer.
Putin employed the same progression of techniques in the Second Chechen War (1999-2009) to grind its “insolent” people into submission; they had dared to declare independence after the USSR collapsed. Chechnya’s months of tough resistance, led to the Russian destruction of their capital, Grozny with an estimated loss of 30,000 lives. In 2022, Russia is largely in control of a very restive, Muslim population, closely assessing events in Ukraine..
Moscow’s Ukrainian cake walk turned into something of a death march. Recent estimates of their KIA toll is between 15-18,000 — in one month. However, the preponderant Russian distance assault of artillery and missiles is taking a toll, but not yet on the spirit or resilience of the Ukrainians.
US, NATO and the EU: Revived Resolve and Collaboration
NATO – President Biden in 15 months has reacquired America’s earlier title: “Leader of the Free World”, no small achievement.. He and his administration have taken full advantage of Putin’s threatening encirclement and ill advised invasion of Ukraine, to refocus governments on Russia’s continued security threat. Putin’s recent mutterings about nukes and CBW, further tightened NATO commitment and acceptance that. Russia is the Arch Enemy of the Trans-Atlantic Community. US forces in NATO Europe now number some 83,000.
Germany’s post WWII pacifist-lite approach to military involvement, has dramatically changed. Berlin is sending military and financial aid to Ukraine and increased its defense budget substantially to improve its military capabilities. It is also prepared to accept Ukrainian refugees without visas.
EU – The European Union is an economic/trading bloc of 27 countries with a common currency. Some members, especially the richest,Germany, became overly energy-dependent on Russia. But, Putin’s War saw Berlin recently refuse to license the operation of Nordstrom 2, an $11 Billion investment in a Russian gas pipeline. Berlin has also warned the German people there may be an energy short-fall.
The policy coalescence among NATO, EU and the US represents a sea change from the 2009 and 20014 Russian invasions of Georgia and Eastern Ukraine, respectively. Then, sanctions were haphazardly applied by some Western European states and the US. However, the vicious, deadly assault on Ukraine shocked Americans and Europeans into accepting that the Russian threat to their security, democracy and prosperity never left. The close collaboration on sanctions now is evident: US/EU consult/agree; Europeans apply them first followed by the US.
Authoritarianism Interrupted? – Hungary & Poland (NATO and EU members) have been moving towards authoritarianism for years, while improving relations with Russia. This has changed. Poland plays a very important role in refugee reception/transfer (Hungary too) and as a transition point for military materiel and and emergency relief items. Whether this represents more than a pause in their politics, remains to be seen.
Tom Timberman is an Army vet, lawyer, former senior Foreign Service officer, adjunct professor at GWU, and economic development team leader or foreign government advisor in war zones. He is the author of four books, lectures locally and at US and European universities. He and his wife are 24 year residents of Kent County.
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