When I woke up on Sunday, I planned to write my weekly Spy column about the importance of Democrats not becoming overconfident. After the Democratic Convention, too many friends had commented that they were feeling optimistic. One told me “The election is now Harris’ to lose.”
I shook my head when I heard these comments but, on reflection, I agreed, albeit for different reasons. As a long-term victim of TDS, I see Trump self-destructing. I see Trump’s inability to stay on scripts his advisors prepare for him. I see Trump’s physical decline and agree that, since Biden’s departure from the race, Trump is the man who is too old to run for president. I find myself thinking that “The election is Harris’ to lose.”
After reading the morning paper, I came across an article in the Capitol Hill newspaper, The Hill, that brought me back to reality. The Hill reports that the respected pollster Frank Luntz believes that the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could win Trump the presidency. The Hill quotes Luntz:
“It’s probably worth about 1 percent for Trump and that 1 percent could be everything if it’s in the swing states. In the end, the reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14 percent is because he was taking votes away from Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [Kennedy’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5 percent and what’s left is a Trump vote.”
Luntz continued:
“Some of them [the Kennedy supporters] are simply not going to participate in November, roughly two to one, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris, and that’s worth a single percent, and a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.”
Thank you, Mr. Kennedy. You may have just dropped a dead baby cub on America’s future, not that you care. You wanted a job in the next administration, and when Harris shrugged you off, you turned to Donald Trump. That stinks.
A few decades ago, I attended a crab feast on the day before a wedding. The hosts bought an abundance of crabs. (They were much cheaper than now.) After the feast, a full bushel of crabs remained. A member of the wedding party asked the host whether he could have the left-over crabs. The host graciously said yes.
The wedding party member had driven a brand-new BMW 7 series sedan to the party. He popped the trunk open, put the crabs in, still in the basket and with no ice. He then returned to the party. Several martinis later, he drove back to his hotel.
The next afternoon, after a very late breakfast, the BMW driver went down to his car. When he opened the door, an awful stench greeted him.
You can guess the rest of the story, but the BMW never recovered. The guest got another one less than a month later and, from that point forward, I am told, he never put crabs in a car trunk again.
The stench of the rotting crabs is what we smell from the bizarre RFK Jr. presidential bid. Nothing about it is good. Even his status as “a respected environmental lawyer and champion” wasn’t enough to justify running against an incumbent Democratic president.
I wish I could have predicted that Kennedy would end up snuggling with Trump, but that vision was too nasty for me (admittedly a low bar).
Unfortunately for America, dismissing Kennedy for the bizarre sideshow that it was and is will not help defeat Trump. Luntz is probably right about Kennedy’s endorsement helping Trump (although I have difficulty imagining a Democrat who supported Kennedy because “Biden is too old” following Junior into the Trump camp).
For more than a year, it has been obvious that the 2024 election would feature a string of surprises. There will be more. Maybe Trump will drop out with Kennedy replacing him as the head of MAGA. I can picture RFK Jr. chanting “drill, baby, drill,” vowing to close the border and deporting millions of undocumented migrants and spouting his own hateful rhetoric against his opponents.
I do not want Mr. Kennedy anywhere near any government agency. If you need another reason to oppose Trump, Trump just gave you one by promising RFK Jr. a job.
If you are an RFK Jr. supporter and smell the same stench I do, it is time to walk away and think about voting for the future–for the Democrats.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant. He writes on politics, government, and, too infrequently, other subjects.
Chris Gordon says
John, I have a lot of respect for Frank Luntz and his p0lls. But if I’m reading those excerpts correctly there’s a flaw in his reasoning. “Some of them [the Kennedy supporters] are simply not going to participate in November, roughly two to one, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris.” Really? All of the remaining Kennedy supporters will vote for Trump? He can’t mean that. Those Kennedy supporters were against both Biden and Trump. Now there’s a viable candidate who is neither Biden nor Trump. I’m sure there will be polls of former Kennedy supporters and I’ll be watching them.
Keep thinking Harris is the underdog, until the inauguration.
John Dean says
Chis: Good observation. I should have read the quote more closely. I suspect you are right and will be proven right by a subsequent poll.
Doug “Grumpy” Kliever says
63 years—From patriotism to ???—
• John F. Kennedy: Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your
country.
• (Joe Biden)/Kamala Harris: How much do you want your country to give you?
• Donald Trump: Huh? It is not about you or the country; it is about ME.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Need a dead bear cub?