Chances are Nikki Haley will not beat Trump and steal the GOP nomination. It is more than a long shot for that to happen. Haley could not even get the Senator she appointed, Tim Scott (R-SC), to endorse her. And she is behind by more than 30 points in her home state. Haley may be the last woman standing between Trump and the nomination, but only the most unlikely scenario would find her around by the end of March.
Trump has proven that a majority of Republican voters either do not believe Trump is guilty of serious crimes or do not care. Most of them continue to believe Trump is the victim of unfair prosecution that Joe Biden launched against him.
Thus, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Fortunately, that does not mean he will be elected president. It is far more likely that Joe Biden will be inaugurated for a second term on January 20, 2025.
How will Biden win? It will not be because of his legal troubles. It will be the economy, stupid. Democratic and independent voters, and even a few sane Republicans, are starting to wake up to the fact that the economy is good and getting better. Maybe that is one reason why Donald Trump expressed the bizarre hope that the economy will crash before election day. Trump knows that the success of the Biden presidency will carry Biden over the line.
Economists now tell us that the U.S. economic recovery is stronger than that of any other western economy. They also now predict “a soft landing” for the economy, meaning there will not be a recession. And they also acknowledge something that consumers do not need an economist to tell them—inflation is subsiding. Mind you, prices are still high, but they are no longer rising precipitously.
Over the next 10 months, Donald Trump will do his best to convince voters that Joe Biden has been a disaster as president and that today’s strengthening economy resulted from his four years in the White House. That is a heavy lift that even Trump supporters are likely to question. Donald, they will say, you cannot have it both ways. Either the economy is a disaster, or it is not.
Joe Biden continues to have vulnerability on border security, crime, “wokeness” (many Republicans craft their own definition of wokeness and then condemn it), and, of course, Biden’s age and Vice President Harris. How many voters who are not already wedded to Trump will migrate to his camp on the basis of these issues? My guess is few.
James Carville, the Ragin’ Cajun who helped put Bill Clinton in the White House, told us, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He was and continues to be right. On election day, voters look at their own circumstances and focus on those issues. Are they hopeful about the future—things like jobs, inflation, housing, and health? If they are, they will support Biden.
Three years ago, Joe Biden decided to “go big.” He passed major infrastructure legislation, committing trillions of dollars to address a variety of national problems, including action on climate change, roads, and social services. The economy is now telling us that “Biden’s reckless spending” did not crash the economy or give us double-digit inflation.
Better yet is something not appreciated by most of us. Much of the stimulus to the economy inherent in the infrastructure legislation is yet to come. Many of the construction projects authorized by the legislation, for example, are only now getting underway. This means that the Biden legislation will continue to create jobs, making a rise in the unemployment rate less likely. And the money flowing into the economy as infrastructure projects get underway will help ensure a continued robust economy.
Finally, let’s look at foreign affairs. The world is a mess. Trump, right on cue, claims that if he had succeeded in stealing the 2020 election (he does not refer to it quite that way), there would be no war in Ukraine, Israel, or anywhere else. He claims the military loved him and that world leaders across the globe respected him. These claims defy credibility. They are patently absurd. Yes, the world is a mess, but it is easier to imagine it being much more of a mess had Trump won in 2020.
A few years ago, a wise friend told me that federal prosecutors should give Trump a pass—do not attempt to hold him accountable because he will paint himself a victim. In a way, my friend was right. But I disagreed with him then, and I disagree with him now. Nobody is above the law. If you do the crime, you should do the time.
On election day, 2024 voters will focus on their kitchen-table issues. If they do so, Biden will win. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but that is it. And voters do not have to trust anyone to see that the economy is strengthening, and that Biden is not the problem.
The economy will save Joe Biden.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government and other subjects.
Tom Timberman says
I agree that the economy should motivate all thinking people whose minds have not been seduced by Trump, to carry President Biden over the finish line in November. However, the icing on the victory cake that may bring out young voters to add their ballots, is the MAGAworld’s decision to ramp up its attacks on Taylor Swift and her football star, Kelse. According to this perhaps Qanon invented narrative, Taylor Swift was hired by DOD as a psych agent to support President Biden and part of the storyline is that her relationship with Kelsey is fake; they’re just acting. More recently, the conspiracy added a more sports directed baroque touch: the last game that ensured Taylor and her friend will go to the Superbowl, was fixed. Why? Because this Dem scheme leads to Taylor filling the halftime show with praise for the president. Not a bad idea, but unlikely.
David A Turner says
(Semafor news) ” …a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll out this morning. Those surveyed across seven battleground states — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — say they trust Donald Trump over Biden on immigration issues by a margin of 52% to 30%.”
Counsel, I appreciate the heartiness of your prognosis. You even were cheery about dreary Kamala Harris not being a drag on President Biden’s chances… carrying the millions and millions of skeptical (non liberal) voters who don’t much care for Trump. But are there enough of your unquestioning fellow liberals in America to elect any president? During a so-so economy?
I genuinely don’t know. Much will change before November. Afterall, didn’t Michael Dukakis do petty good without moderates and disgruntled conservatives? At the very least, you might live to regret your glee about Nikki Haley fading.
I’ll give you a bonus for your thesis: radical leftists and progressives will march back into the fold, like a Red Guard, once Gaza settles down and they’re staring at Trump’s frightening name on their ballots.
However, did your analysis largely gloss over something? “Joe Biden continues to have vulnerability on border security…” you say. Is that all — he’ll only loose “a few” votes on that one?
Currently, it’s fashionable for Democratic influencers (the media) to confuse voters with talk about “necessary” congressional deals to resolve this controversial issue. But there’s a lot of time for us marginal voters to figure out that any honest president would have significantly slowed the invasion with his own powers — without waiting for additional laws to force his reluctant hand.
Meanwhile, a plurality of November voters stubbornly sits on the fence. And we’re not “so few.”
Chris Gordon says
A “so-so economy”? Wherever you’re getting your propaganda is lying to you.
David A Turner says
Jim, did I spell counsel correctly in my reply. I believe Dean is a retired atty.
Thanks,
Dave
Paula Reeder says
Mr Dean, from your lips to God’s – and America’s voters’ – ears!
Deirdre LaMotte says
Let’s examine what people call “radical leftest” doctrine:
Every person regardless of gender, race, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation is created equal and must be treated so under the law.
The United States allows freedom of religion and leaves that decision to individuals – this country welcomes all (as stated by President Madison)
Who one loves is your business.
Health care is a human right.
Your medical decisions should be made by you and your doctor not by elected officials. Reproduction rights are human rights.
Our country has had a terrible history of racism and we must acknowledge that and strive towards making the American dream available to all, including indigenous Americans
Public education is the backbone of our country and no individual should get to decide which books my children read.
Everyone deserves an education.
The wealthy should pay their fair share of taxes.
We can work together and contribute together to build big things that benefit a Americans
The minimum wage should be raised.
Unions are important to ensure workers rights
Making voting easy for citizens is democracy. Keeping people
from voting,in the guise of “protecting” wink,wink, “voter integrity”
is white person anxiety fueled by far right big money interests.
The term “leftest, radical” is a term used by those who really
have no clue how a democracy works. It is a flippant easy way out
of any examination of policy.
And please stop the third party option and the dis on VP Harris:
shall we bring up that ridiculous man who was Trump’s VP?
The only legislative achievement Trump managed to pass was a massive tax cut for corporations and the wealthy, with special cutouts for real estate developers such as himself.
Trump talks a good game, but if you look back at his actual accomplishments during his tenure as President, they’re heavily weighted toward the wealthy.
If “things were better when Trump was president”, those “things” were riding the Obama economy, and were only better until a challenge – Covid – appeared – which Trump absolutely, totally, and completely muffed.
He is is a salesman with only dreams to sell. No substance.
Trump is the Republican Party and they deserve him.
They can pretend to be uncomfortable, but he represents their
vision of America.
Lastly, as someone recently said to me: Comparing the Biden & Trump presidencies is like saying Julia Child &
Jeffrey Dahmer are both cooks who just disagree on ingredients.
Bill Anderson says
As an attorney, Mr. Dean should be well familiar with the difference between “prosecution” and “persecution”. Mr. Dean, Donald J. Trump has recently become a subject of prosecution simply as a means of attempting to de-rail his bid for election to the presidency. Since his announcement of his candidacy in 2015, which ultimately led to his election and four-year term in office as the President of the United States, he has been relentlessly persecuted in an effort to drive him from office.
Here is a little something I have copied from an email for you, sir:
Like many citizens, I’ve wondered and tried hard to understand why Trump has such a remarkable following?🤔
(It’s also obvious why he probably should not!)
Then a friend sent me this raccoon story. It makes no difference about your political leanings; this is just a good explanation of WHY… (or it’s as good as any I can come up with).
If you really want to know how the majority of people feel? 🤔 This applies to both Democrats and Republicans; read below, it says it all.
You’ve been on vacation for two weeks, you come home, and your basement is infested with raccoons. Hundreds of rabid, messy, mean raccoons have overtaken your basement.
You want them gone immediately. You call the city, 4 different exterminators, but nobody can handle the job. But there is this one guy and he guarantees you to get rid of them, so you hire him.
You don’t care if the guy smells, you don’t care if the guy swears, you don’t care if he’s an alcoholic, you don’t care how many times he’s been married, you don’t care if he voted for Obama, you don’t care if he has a plumber’s crack, you simply want those raccoons gone! You want your problem fixed!😤
He’s the guy. He’s the best. Period !👍
Here’s why we want Trump, yes, he’s an egomaniac, but we don’t care!😤
The country is a mess because politicians suck, the Republicans and Democrats can be two-faced & gutless, and illegals are everywhere.
We want it all fixed! We don’t care that Trump is crude, we don’t care that he insults people, we don’t care that he once was friendly with Hillary, we don’t care that he has changed positions, we don’t care that he’s been married 3 times, we don’t care that he fights with Megan Kelly and Rosie O’Donnell, we don’t care that he doesn’t know the name of some Muslin terrorist.🤔
This country is weak, bankrupt, our enemies are making fun of us, we are being invaded by illegals, we are becoming a nation of victims where every Tom, Ricardo, and Hasid is a special group with special rights to a point where we don’t even recognize the country we were born and raised in; “AND……. WE JUST WANT IT FIXED”!
Trump is the only guy who seems to understand what the people want.👍
We’re sick of politicians, sick of the Democratic Party, Republican Party, and sick of illegals. We just want this thing fixed. Trump may not be a saint, but he doesn’t have lobbyist money holding him, he doesn’t have political correctness restraining him, all you know is that he has been very successful, a good negotiator, he has built a lot of things, and he’s also not a politician, he’s not a cowardly politician.
And ……….he says he’ll fix it.
And, we believe him because he is too much of an egotist to be proven wrong or looked at and called a liar.
Finally, we don’t care if the guy has bad hair. We just want those raccoons gone, out of our house, NOW!😤
Bob Moores says
Mr Anderson, your raccoon simile is one of the more sociopathic, bigotted reasons I’ve heard for preferring Trump, but it fits. Like peas in a pod.