Nullification comes to mind. Not the kind asserted unsuccessfully by State’s rights advocates but the kind that begins at the “grass roots” as they say. The kind of nullification that looks East from West.
Let me begin. Many Iowans turned out, almost defiantly as so many reporting the news said that severe cold would keep many in. And some stayed home. The Iowans that turned out were not January 6 “take over the government at all costs” people. They were not frothing at the mouth. Indeed CNN, one of two channels I watched, made this clear as they interviewed dutiful caucus-goers with their kids looking on.
The interviews fleshed out MAGA (Make America Great Again). Rather than a besmirched minority, it was clear that in Iowa they were regular citizens who do not like the turn America has taken. They have heard Harvard, Harvard, Harvard when worthies are being discussed and then found out its President thought calling for genocidal actions against Jews was not harassment sufficient to be a violation of the schools code of conduct.
And then what’s all this stuff about pronouns and males who want to transition to female sports? While in many respects these are arguments that do not represent majorities passing new laws the evening news from whatever source makes sure we hear over and over about the movements.
The former President, Donald J Trump, has been talking about these things. He directly or indirectly says we must turn the page; although he is short on detail. Why get into detail when your four word slogan allows people to dream about the “good old days”.
Of course there is the inevitable “but”. While President Joe Biden and Trump see-saw in the polls of the day, Trump must be unnerved by the 20 to 30% in his own party that said a felony conviction would be disabling. Right now Trump is playing his various legal problems as the Left is weaponizing the justice system. “I am your retribution” his supporters are told. Trump, an unlikely leader of a revolution, has nonetheless positioned himself to be seen that way by many in his Party and beyond.
The legal problems are both Trumps and ours. Are we done with the Courts? As an institution is our court system to be honored? As a way-out-of-practice lawyer looking at the court calendar and the political one it appears to me that the Republicans will have virtually chosen their nominee before the first jury panel is sworn in. Voir Dire, the choosing of jurors will be one for the TV cameras and history books. Can you imagine a jury of 12 persons who do not have pre-conceived notions about Trump?
But, Iowa is just one State. Yet, President Biden choose to bypass it because political professionals know it punches above its weight.
It’s now on to New Hampshire where polls show Niki Haley doing well. Ron DeSantis promises to take her on there and again in the third primary in her home state. Good luck with that. DeSantis was the big loser in Iowa as he put all of his chips down after being endorsed by it’s popular Governor.
While Biden shoved Iowa down his calendar, he is paying attention. He can’t be pleased to see Immigration as the top issue on caucus goer’s minds. Or the economy close behind with inflation top of mind. Nor can his Party stalwarts be pleased as they see Congressman Dean Phillips gain more support in the unauthorized primary in New Hampshire. And the latest poll from ABC/Ispos has Biden’s approval rating at only 33%.
While I am not a fan of incessant polling and believe it particularly discriminates against the emergence of new candidates, I know that politicians read the polls at breakfast. And the polls say that President Biden is weak even against Trump. If you could find a group of people who were neutral about today’s polarizing politics and overlayed on a mythical Republican candidate Trump’s problems, this group of neutrals would say he was fatally damaged. But, the polls say not against Biden.
It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for a national alternative to Biden to emerge without Biden stepping down. And it is hard to win nationally if you are unknown. The only candidate, in my view, who is a true alternative, is Niki Haley. She has put in the work. Even though castigated by her Republican competitors as not “tough enough” she has proven plenty tough. The “not tough enough” label sounds an awful lot like male arrogance. I have daughters, I listen. Plus, any good leader in a democratic system must display collaborative temperament.
While Haley will undoubtedly do better in New Hampshire, is there a path in today’s Republican Party to the nomination? Not without developments not easily anticipated. She might, however, find her Party has left her and take the Independent line presumptively through the No Labels independent candidate structure.
Maybe Iowa’s results are just not very important. We are certainly at the beginning of the sorting out process. Yet, I have the feeling that Iowans on the Right have delivered some sobering messages to all Never Trumpers, regardless of which side of the divide they are on.
January might be a disagreeable weather month, but this January is going to be eventful. It is likely that a presumptive nominee of the Republican Party will be an all but certain choice. The President will either stand down or not. Vice President Kamala Harris will either remain the presumptive Vice President nominee or not. And the emergence of a third party with the resources to actually win will emerge or not. If not January, then maybe a week of two in February.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
Deirdre LaMotte says
The border, transgender rights and a beef at those smarter than they are is nothing if we lose our democracy. And to call these people “regular” is terrifying.
Trump is a liar, thief, rapist and insurrectionist wanna-be dictator, who already tried to steal the last election. Thank God the idiot failed. If you think all of the above is bad now, and Republicans want to bring back a man who puts kids in cages and separates them from their families, then kiss your beloved country goodbye.
These problems cannot be addressed by the Trump who did nothing but treason and stuffing his pockets with millions in foreign money while in office, and who now has pledged to destroy our democracy. He says it openly as if we are the dumbest nation in the world. Fooled us twice, shame on Us.
Biden is not superman, but he is a powerfully good president, and yes, 4 years of Trump chaos left Biden with 10x the work a normal president should have to do. Don’t play the stupids game. Biden is the only way forward.
The ironically named christianists who voted in Iowa for Trump are rabidly supporting an amoral, dishonest, hypocritical grifter
solely because he empowers their efforts to impose Western Sharia law on those of us that don’t want or need such lunacy. Go on and have your revival in the arctic tundra, lowa … because let us have a shred of hope that other states know better. Not really holding my breath.
Dennis Young says
Deirdre, it is clear that you have strong opinions about Biden and about Trump. You are entitled to that. You step over the line, however, when you extend that right to make blanket assumptions about all the “rabid” citizens who voted in the Iowa caucuses. Every one of them? But if you concede that not every such voter is rabid then what differentiates the sane from the rabid? Maybe the sane ones have beliefs that make sense to them after they have weighed the information and made a decision consistent with their values. The same clear eyed examination applies to the voters for the President. Our country can be on a better path when we give some time to consider that people can have different views without automatically labeling them all as extreme. Otherwise we haven’t successfully incorporated the lessons from slavery, suffragettes and “those people”.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Sorry, but one can not be accused of being decent if they are rabid Trump followers. Obviously, decency
has been abandoned by a Party whose standard barrier is Trump. It is a choice.
David A Turner says
Sikes, you pretty well nailed the Iowa thing. Thanks.
It’s going to be a lively January/February, especially for anti-Trump conservatives and moderates. Anti-Trump liberals (all) are already hitched to their torturous, solo course with their two dreary candidates. They haughtily demand that we compromise our principles to vote for their campaign to save democracy. They, on the other hand, are unwilling to compromise at all — for example, enacting a strong border policy or that we must swallow Kamala Harris’ proven incompetence. Harris is waiting in the corner like a spider, for something again to be handed to her when President Biden’s health fails during his second term. Spare us the misogyny and racism charges, we voted for her once. She’s Dan Quayle to Biden.
On the other hand, I, as a natural conservative, stand disturbed at the rough, discordant voices coming from the Right. Something new is brewing (and it’s not fascism, that’s a sophomore’s/liberal’s take). It is not yet clear where our conservative policies and views will finally emerge. Even George Will doesn’t know. Media too quickly labelled it “populist.” But they’re not quite correct. I was raised in the waning days of the old Democratic party’s southern populism — like Lyndon’s. I know the feel of populism, and today’s rightwing brew is different. The current sentiment bears the strong hallmark of reaction. Swing the pendulum back from the leftist direction it hit most recently with the George Floyd riots, DEI, anti-Israel/Jew, and social justice mob demands, even in Chestertown, i.e. their unjust attacks against our wonderful former mayor Chris Cerino. Street violence, trying to ruin politicians’ reputations, and tearing down historic statues on one side; and Jan. 6th as a reaction on the other. It’s sure not clear to me what candidate all this will generate on the right.
I look forward to reading more of your thoughts as we move through this lively campaign.
Chris Gordon says
Mr. Turner, you seem like a sensible, rational conservative with whom I could disagree amiably without being labelled a marxist thug as Mr. Trump portrays me. There was one sentence in your well thought out comment that I would take issue with. You fault the administration for not “enacting a strong border policy.” I believe that is the responsibility of the Congress who has kicked that can down the road for decades. The current Speaker of the House once again said now is not the time for that discussion. I completely agree with you about the need for immigration reform. I hope you will lobby your Republican representatives to make that happen.
David A Turner says
Thanks Chris. My Republican congressman, like yours, is Andy Harris. We don’t get along (at all) well enough for me to ask him to moderate his viewpoint.
Most of my friends in Chestertown are good liberals, with whom I can reason. However, they are as implacable about adjusting their ticket, as my pro-Trump friends are toward not voting for the former president because of his obvious personal failings. I suspect we anti-Trump conservatives and moderates will end up dining on crow before this year is over. But first, I wanted to give it the old college try.
Deirdre LaMotte says
There is a cognitive dissonance with those who relish a jolly fight between Trump and Biden, or who in anyway explain away the failure of the Republican Party and, esp. those who call themselves “conservatives”. I am reminded of Steve Schmidt’s comments yesterday. Schmidt was Sen. McCain’s campaign director. “Trump stands at the edge of the Republican nomination without much campaigning and 91 felony indictments pending against him. His campaign message is explicit. He is running to punish his enemies and rule without restraint. The United States stands at a dangerous hour”.
This is fascism, or would using the word Hitler, Orban or Mussolini make it more understandable?
On the one hand we have Biden/Harris making lives objectively better (new infrastructure projects in 50 states, historically low unemployment, $35 cap on insulin, etc.) and on the other, inciters of chaos, with help from the
Russians, Chinese and Iranian digital provocateurs.
And then we have people worried about “woke” or whatever is being pushed by Fox to sow upheaval .
Oh dear.
James Nick says
Mr Turner opines that “Something new is brewing (and it’s not fascism…). I know the feel of populism, and today’s rightwing brew is different… It’s sure not clear to me what candidate all this will generate on the right.”
That certain je ne sais quoi that Mr Turner can’t seem to put his finger on that distinguishes today’s rightwing (the redundant prefix “far” no longer need be appended) from the before times is religion, namely, virulent, dominionist, unyielding white Christian nationalism that intends to permeate every aspect of life in this country. And trump, an immensely flawed and ignorant individual who has had more incarnations than Vishnu, will be their candidate. But this time around, he will be running as a Messianic Warrior complete with a persecution and martyrdom backstory he knows will seal the deal with his unquestioning supporters.
If anyone doubts this characterization, I would point them to this video posted on trump’s social media website…
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111703421569603715
The video proclaims…
“… God had to have someone willing to go into the den of vipers. Call out the fake news for their tongues as sharp as a serpent’s. The poison of vipers is on their lips. So God made Trump…”
It goes on…
“…God said, “I will need someone who will be strong and courageous. Who will not be afraid or terrified of wolves when they attack. A man who cares for the flock. A shepherd to mankind who won’t ever leave or forsake them. I need the most diligent worker to follow the path and remain strong in faith. And know the belief in God and country…”
I guess this video is supposed to (absolutely does?) evoke pangs of loyalty and patriotism in the hearts of ardent trumpers but this is the very sort of thing that sends shivers up and down the spine of every clear-thinking trump opponent. It pretty much makes the case in one brief package why trump must never occupy the White House again.