On a regular, almost daily basis, political pundits and observers are focusing on the November 2026 “mid-term” congressional general elections that will determine which party will have majorities in both houses of Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump’s second term.
While the outcome of those elections is consequential, next year there will also be two significant elections in Maryland, including a primary to determine which major party candidates will compete in the November 2026 general election for governor.
Currently, there are at least two members of the Democratic party and at least five members of the Republican party who have filed to run for governor, announced an intent to run, or have launched an exploratory committee. There will likely be more.
In the volatile and ever-changing political environment in Maryland, few election outcomes can be predicted with a high degree of certainty.
For now, one certainty is Governor Wes Moore running for reelection.
Another certainty is the Moore re- election campaign will have ample funding as reports are
they already have more than $4,000,000 in the bank.
One more certainty is Wes Moore will handily win the Democratic party nomination, unlike the first time he ran for governor and defeated ten Democratic Party primary opponents including several who had impressive political resumes.
Moore’s primary campaign this time will be a smooth flight with a soft landing.
That is not say his re-election in the November 2026 general election is a certainty.
The Republicans may have at least one candidate who has the potential to mount a serious challenge to Moore — former Governor Larry Hogan.
Hogan was first elected governor in a historic upset in 2014 and re-elected to a second term in 2018.
In the closing days of his two terms as governor, Hogan had a 77% positive job performance rating.
Based in part on that rating, Hogan won the Republican primary in 2024 to be the Republican candidate for a U.S. Senate general election, but he lost that election.
Hogan has not yet announced if he is running for governor again, but indications are he will. A Facebook initiative launched last February – “No Moore” –compares and contrasts Hogan’s and Moore’s records on state spending, new taxes, tax increases, new fees, and fee increases.
The reaction to these comparisons may help Hogan to announce he is running and may also be a gauge for a Hogan campaign to refine campaign messages that will most likely resonate with primary and general election voters next year.
The negative comparisons and contrasts to Moore posted regularly on the “No Moore” Facebook page may already be resonating with some voters.
The Baltimore Banner newspaper engaged Maryland-based Opinion Works to survey nine hundred registered Maryland voters between October 7 and October 10, 2025
The survey results are: 45 % of the nine hundred survey participants would vote for Moore, 37 % would vote for Hogan and 14% were undecided.
Two experts on Maryland politics shared their opinions on these results in a recent issue of Newsweek magazine.
Mileah Kromer is director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and is the author of Blue State Republican: How Larry Hogan Won Where Republicans Lose and Lessons for a Future GOP. In her Newsweek remarks, Kromer said, “Larry Hogan has always been a formidable politician. He does really well regarding retail politics and getting out and talking to voters. His particular strength has been in a blue state like Maryland. He’s been able to convince around 30 percent, at least in his two gubernatorial cycles, of Democrats to vote for him.” Kromer does inject a word of caution to any Hogan come back campaign — “The 2026 election would be different in that Moore, as an incumbent, will receive the backing of the Democratic Governors Association and have no trouble fundraising.”
David Karol is a political science professor at the University of Maryland. He told Newsweek: “Hogan is the best hope for Maryland Republicans,” but he also suggested “Hogan would be an underdog versus Moore.”
No matter who prevails in the November 2026 gubernatorial general election, there are three more certainties to keep in mind.
Wes Moore has the most to gain with in a big reelection win. If it is a landslide win, he will further enhance his current standing as a rising star in the Democratic Party with a bright political future beyond Maryland.
Conversely, Wes Moore has the most to lose if he is in a deep blue state and is defeated or wins reelection by a narrow margin.
If either of these two outcomes occurs, he most certainly will lose momentum on his thinly disguised ambition to be nominated by the Democratic Party for president or vice president in the future.
David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant. He is also a consultant to not-for-profit organizations on governance, leadership, and management matters. He lives in Easton.
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