Donald Trump and the art of the deal By David Reel

Donald Trump and the art of the deal By David Reel

In 1987, well before entering the political arena as a candidate for president the first time in 2016, Donald Trump wrote a bestselling book – The Art of the Deal.

In promoting his book, Trump said, “I like thinking big, I always have. To me it’s very simple. If you’re going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big.”

During his third presidential campaign in 2024, Trump’s campaign slogan and platform –”Make America Great Again” was most certainly thinking big.

Trump’s proposed big ideas included new federal government policies and actions on immigration, energy, foreign affairs, taxes, government reorganization, and government spending.

His big idea messaging resonated so well with voters, Trump was elected in 2024 winning both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote.

He was the first Republican presidential candidate to do that since George W. Bush in 1988.

Branding his win as a mandate, Trump announced he wanted Congress to enact legislation implementing a wide range of his big ideas no later than May of this year.

To be seen is if he can convert his election success into governing success.

It will not be easy.

In 1513, political observer, philosopher, and historian, Nicolai Machiavelli wrote the following in his classic book, The Prince:

“It must be remembered that that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies, all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.”

This timeless advice is especially relevant when Trump will be dealing with Congress, a legislative body often characterized by a lot of talk and little meaningful action on significant changes to the status quo.

Even with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, expected to be the case for at least the next two years, Trump’s efforts to secure approval of big ideas in Congress will be like herding cats.

Case in point was recently warring factions within the Republican majority in the U.S. House deciding whether or not to retain or replace Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.

It brought back memories of another divisive Speaker election where Republicans needed sixteen rounds of voting to elect a new speaker after incumbent speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted from that position.

That experience was hardly a branding moment for House Republicans. It has been suggested that was one reason some Republican House candidates lost in November, losses that reduced their already slim majority in the House to two seats.

The final outcome on this most recent speaker election was a huge win for President-elect Trump.

Without a Speaker the House could not certify his election, which could have delayed his swearing in.

Only after Trump and Elon Musk pivoted from a largely hands-off position on Johnson being reelected to a strong endorsement of Johnson by both Trump and Musk, Johnson was reelected as Speaker.

No doubt they were aided by the fact that Congressman Andy Harris, a loyal Trump supporter now chairs the House Freedom Caucus. Several caucus members have long been critical of Speaker Johnson.

Harris, also pivoted from announcing his uncertainty on supporting Johnson. Harris casted a vote for him near the end of the lengthy vote count where Johnson received just enough votes to win.

Perhaps Andy remembered or was reminded that former Congressman and former Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good lost in a Republican primary to an opponent endorsed by Trump.

Fresh off a big win in the House Speaker election, Trump’s next steps are more challenging.

Some Republican House members are already considering opposing using reconciliation legislation to consider and approve some of Trump’s big thinking ideas.

In the Senate, Trump is also currently facing uncertainty on his nominations requiring Senate approval.

Senate Majority Leader, John Thune has said he does not know if all of Trump’s choices for cabinet and sub-cabinet appointments will be supported by all the Republican senators. He has said candidly and bluntly — “Some of them will make it, but I don’t know if all of them will.”

The largest looming challenge facing Trump is voter reaction to what legislation Congress approves and what they do not approve over the next two years.

The voters who elected Trump and Republican majorities in Congress know that if Trump’s MAGA big idea agenda is not enacted by Congress with those majorities they will have opportunities to vent their frustration and displeasure as soon as the 2026 midterm elections.

It is also possible If the historical pattern of mid-term elections could happen, a pattern where candidates of the President’s party lose congressional races. Either way Republican majorities in Congress could go away like melting snow on a warm winter day.

Those election results could result in Democratic majorities in one or both house of Congress majorities that would never advance Trump’s big ideas agenda.

Such results could also challenge the notion that Republican wins in 2024 will be followed by a measurable realignment in American politics that favors Republicans going forward.

I suggest the ultimate verdict on Trump’s success on his big ideas will not depend on his thinking big ideas. It will depend on his success in delivering on the big ideas that meet the high expectations of the voters who elected Trump him and other Republicans in 2024.

Voting against candidates (especially incumbent members of Congress s) who fail to deliver on campaign promises made is how they may see the art of the deal.

David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant in Easton.