Yesterday President Biden answered the question of whether he will run for reelection in 2024. The answer is yes. While I admire much that Biden has accomplished in the last 27 months, I am troubled. There are too many risks inherent in an octogenarian running for president. Remember, if Biden wins and completes a full second term as president, he will be 86 on the day he leaves office.
Biden’s advanced age, as well as the possibility that the indicted and arguably insane ex-president may win the Republican nomination, is likely to lead to a series of surprises for the rest of this year through election day 2024. The race will be historic. This is uncharted territory.
As we are well aware, people age at different speeds. Many of us have met people ready for retirement at age 50 and others who could and sometimes do work productively into their 90’s. Biden is young for his age, but too old to both run for president in 2024 and serve as our Chief Executive for another four years starting in 2025. And imagine an 85-year-old as our chief executive in 2028.
The President’s mental ability, stamina, and focus are legitimate worries even if you believe Biden is an exceptionally young 80-year-old. The problem is that healthy 80-year-olds often do not stay that way. Seniors in their 80’s can decline rapidly, especially after a fall or illness. Most of us have experienced such rapid decline with aging relatives which suggests that even if Biden is up for a stressful presidential campaign and four more years as president, the risk of his rapid decline or death cannot be overlooked.
A second worry about the President’s decision to run is that he does not enjoy the enthusiastic support of Democrats. Despite his achievements as president, rank-and-file Democrats don’t want Biden to run even while saying, as I do, that they will support him if he gets the nomination.
What happens if, in the middle of the 2024 campaign season, something happens to Biden that makes it obvious he is not ready to serve four more years? That situation would benefit Republicans. Why take this risk?
In addition to issues directly involving Biden is his choice for vice president. Kamala Harris is a flawed and unpopular vice president. She has not been impressive in her work on border security and has occasionally been an embarrassment on diplomatic missions. It is difficult to imagine her as a competent commander-in-chief. In short, the principal problem with Harris is that given President Biden’s age, if she runs again as his vice president, she is likely to become president. Many strong Democrats I have spoken to want someone other than Harris on the 2024 ticket. Their rationale is not only that she is not the best choice for a potential future president, but that her unpopularity will hurt the 2024 Democratic ticket. Will her presence on the ticket hurt Biden’s reelection chances? Maybe. Why take the risk?
Some Democrats claim the reelection of Joe Biden is the best means of preventing Donald Trump from returning to the White House. That is a legitimate rationale given that, as of today, Trump remains the Republican front-runner. But how likely is it that Trump will remain a viable candidate by the end of the year?
Polls suggest Trump’s support may decline or even collapse in the coming months. Many voters who supported him in the past want to move on. They are just waiting for the right candidate to emerge. Trump has become boring by repeating the Big Lie, attacking RINOs and prosecutors, and engaging in other strange behaviors. Also, there is the question of how his base will react to his likely indictments for election fraud in Georgia, obstruction of justice, and for crimes associated with the January 6 insurrection.
In my view, a Trump decision to quit the 2024 race increases rather than decreases the risk of chaos in the 2024 elections. Trump’s decision would encourage Democrats to look beyond Biden. Several Democrats who would otherwise reluctantly defer to Biden as the best candidate to defeat Trump, may reconsider their decisions. The president currently benefits from the perception that because he defeated Trump in 2020, he is the best bet to do so again. With no Trump in the race, that benefit disappears.
As we look at the 2024 election, we must also consider the possibility of an economic, foreign policy, or climate crisis that would convince Democrats that the situation is beyond Biden’s ability to manage, even if he did not age another day. Will President Biden be ready to take 3 a.m. phone calls when he is 84?
Do the risks of a Biden 2024 reelection bid outweigh the benefits? Yes. The president’s decision to run for reelection is selfish and egotistical. Does Biden believe there is no other democrat who could run the country as well as he could? Do you?
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Gina O'Brien says
I am voting for the party that wants free lunches for 4th graders, NOT the party who wants to force them to give birth. I’m ridin’ with Biden. We do have a competent Vice President in case of an issue. BTW.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece and sharing your view. Please know I am not recommending voting Republican, but believe that the President, who has done a good job in office, is too old to run for reelection.
Clark Bjorke says
Don’t change horses in mid stream. Biden is doing a much better job than anyone expected, despite the lies told every day by Trump, Tucker and the whole Republican House. The most likely sudden change will likely be the incarceration of the Republican front runner. Carry on, Joe!
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece and for your comment. I would be with you completely if Biden were not 80 years old.
Gren Whitman says
RUN, JOE, RUN
HOLD THE FORT
KEEP THE FAITH
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece. I would be cheering with you but for the president’s advanced age. I worry about the ability of an octogenarian to carry out the duties of the presidency. I also believe there are several good Democrats who could win in 2024 and do a better job 2025-29 as president.
Bob Moores says
What good does it do to cry over spilt milk? I, like you, would have preferred a younger, mentally sharper, more energetic candidate than Joe. But that is not to be, so we have to do the best with what we’ve got. And what we’ve got is a guy who has an excellent record of accomplishment in his first two-years-plus, and is a descent human being compared to his likely opponent.
I heard someone ask a good question: “If not Joe, who?” I thought Whitmer was a reasonable choice until she emphatically declined to run. Klobuchar? Too nice. Buttigieg? Too gay. Newsom? Too busy. Warnock? Too quiet. Harris? Too secure. All potential challengers defer to the incumbent president. And why not? History shows the incumbent to have a big advantage, the best chance of repeating.
A big problem Democrats have in going against Trump (at this point, the presumptive Republican nominee) is we don’t have anybody meanspirited enough to fight him with his own tactics. We don’t have anybody good at character assassination and telling people what they want to hear (“Covid will be over by Easter. Elect me and I will end the Ukraine war in 24 hours”). Our candidates are too focused on positive policies that will help all Americans, not just the privileged few who long for the “good ole days” before their domination began to erode (Isn’t this what “MAGA” means?)
We could do a lot worse than Joe. He passed three important pieces of legislation in a little more than two years, compared to Trump’s one in four years. He beat Trump in 2020, so he is a proven winner in that regard. He has Jim Clyburn’s indorsement, a big deal if you are paying attention. As Tom Friedman recently wrote, Joe needs to give Harris an assignment where she has a chance to succeed. Then his age will be less of a negative in 2024.
Beryl Smith says
Even a 50 year old can get a catastrophic illness or have a life-changing accident. There are many younger dems in the wings, but none are ready yet for prime time and changing to a new candidate would only insure that a loss may occur. Stick with the date that “brung ya” and give him all the help and encouragement and thanks for all he has already done.
James Nick says
This is nothing more than the usual and predictable Democratic pearl clutching that just serves to feed the MAGA attack machine. Thanks for that, Mr Dean.
donald trump was born on June 6, 1946. President Biden was born on November 20, 1942. Do the math. I get a 3-1/2 year difference. Not enough to make any practical difference, it seems to me.
Ten of the oldest senators range in age from 76 to 89. Chuck Grassley is 89 and running for re-election. Mitch McConnell is 80. If Mr Dean is going to rant about the age of our elected leaders he needs to cast a wider net.
Perhaps there needs to be upper age limits (and term limits, as well) for all three branches of government but until then, age alone is not a disqualifier.
As for the choice of VP, how was everyone feeling about Dan Quayle being a heartbeat away from the presidency? Suppose John McCain had been elected president and Sarah Palin was waiting in the wings. Kamala Harris looks like a Rhoads Scholar compared to these two jokers who were probably among the dimmest of the many dim bulbs ever to be, or come close to being, VP.
DIANE SHIELDS says
I think Joe Biden is the best candidate for the 2024 election; he has accomplished a LOT with what he was dealt. Everyone is talking about his age – Trump is not that much younger (and obviously in much poorer health, in many ways) – why is that not an issue, not to mention his involvement in Jan. 6 insurrection, attacks on democracy and civil rights and women’s rights, etc.