With the Iowa caucuses less than two months away, the papers are awash in stories on why Joe Biden will lose in 2024. He is too old. The public does not understand all the good things he has made happen. Donald Trump’s base is just too dug in to shrink, even in the face of a legal Armageddon. And they perceive that Joe Biden’s presidency has hurt them.
This last claim has me scratching my head. I have thought long and hard about Joe Biden but have not once thought that his time in the White House has hurt me. Apparently, I am missing something. Last week I read a Wall Street Journal poll conducted on December 4 that found that 53 percent of respondents indicated that “Biden’s policies have hurt me personally.” This compares with only 37 percent who claim that Trump’s policies have hurt them.
Respondents in polls routinely blame incumbent presidents for things like soaring prices, crime, and responses to crises deemed insufficient (think of George W. Bush’s response to Hurricane Katrina). They also blame incumbents for things like climate change, falling stock markets, and the rise of dictators like Vladimir Putin. The blame is legitimate, but only to a degree. If respondents thought more about it, they might accept that a rise in the price of gasoline might have been caused by OPEC or by disruptions in the supply chain. Similarly, they might accept that a rise in carjackings in Washington might not have resulted from something President Biden did.
I do not like soaring prices, crime, Putin, war, and a lot of other societal and economic problems any more than anybody else but still think Biden is getting a bum rap. Just to look at crime—Biden has not “defunded” police, does not hate the police, and has not coddled criminals. I do not hold him responsible for increases in crime. And if the solution to combatting crime is to shoot drug dealers, mandate racist stop-and-frisk programs, increase incarceration for minor crimes, and abandon efforts to reform policing, count me out. I want less crime but not at the cost of establishing a police state.
But what about other results in the WSJ poll? Incredibly, 49 percent of respondents indicated that Trump’s policies have helped them while only 23 percent found the same about Biden’s policies.
What is going on here? It is possible that the poll was just too small, consisting of 1,500 phone calls and text messages. Also, the poll did not indicate how the sample was chosen. If we are talking about 1,500 Alabamians or, sadly, 1,500 people on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, maybe the poll makes sense. But what, I wonder, are the Biden policies that respondents said personally hurt them really Biden’s fault?
Setting aside things like permitting the Department of Justice to prosecute crimes associated with the January 6 insurrection, a policy that would prompt Proud Boys, Trump, and several hundred January 6 rioters to face prosecution, it is hard to figure out what the issues are. I suspect the answers are things like, “Biden raised the price of gas,” or “Biden defunded the police and promoted crime,” or “Biden discriminates against White people.” But are any of these things that Biden should be held accountable for? I do not think so.
Importantly, in looking at inflation, the impact of Biden’s massive spending bills needs to be looked at in the context of where the money was spent. In the case of the infrastructure bill, the money is going to rebuild failing roads, bridges, the electrical grid, and to replace lead pipes. Most of us would accept these expenditures as needed if asked about them separately. And, If Biden’s spending bills are to blame for inflation, he should also get credit for keeping the economy out of recession. Is anyone giving Biden credit for keeping us out of an economic recession?
Finally, let’s remember that the U.S. economy simply is not controlled by one person, even the president of the U.S. That is why I am unable to blame Biden for inflation or to give him primary credit for low unemployment rates. And I am definitely not ready to credit Trump for good economic developments, like a booming stock market, or to pretend that the massive tax cuts enacted under his watch did not contribute to today’s inflation.
The same WSJ poll asked the 1,500 respondents whether Trump or Biden is “better able” to oversee certain issues. I choked at the reference to Trump’s abilities because he governed by “gut instinct,” refusing to attend national security briefings or rely on experts. What Trump abilities are involved here? President Biden’s abilities, of course, are also questioned by many, but he clearly relies heavily on a team of highly qualified, able advisors. Even if you disagree with various Biden policies, I think, you have to give him the edge on “ability.” Right?
The poll found that respondents view Trump as more “able” than Biden to oversee the economy, inflation, crime, border security, and “Israel-Hamas.” Biden edged out Trump in only two categories: Abortion and “Tone in Politics.” Frankly, had the poll found that Trump is more able to oversee the issue of tone in politics, I would have thrown away the paper reporting on the poll, and you would not be reading this article.
Is it possible that Trump really is more able than Biden and that Biden’s policies hurt more people personally than Trump’s did? I do not think so. As president and since leaving office, Trump has led an assault on people of color, the LGBQT community, the media, and many others. Biden has limited his attacks to those denying anyone their civil rights.
How do you explain a poll that seems to endorse a return of Trump to the White House? One answer is to acknowledge that lies work when running for office in a country where too many of us accept claims without verifying or at least questioning them. Trump tells working people that Biden’s policies will flood the country with undocumented immigrants, fentanyl, criminals, communists, and other undesirables. Unfortunately, many people believe him. The same people believe Trump when he says he could end the war in Ukraine in “one day,” prevent wars from breaking out, and won the 2020 presidential election.
I worry for the future of America when the only politician who lies more than George Santos is shown in a poll to beat Joe Biden if the 2024 election is Biden against Trump. Our only hope is that between now and November of next year, Trump is found guilty of at least some of the 91 felonies he’s charged with, and the public still sufficiently believes in the legitimacy of the U.S. legal system to conclude that Trump, regardless of his abilities and love for flag-hugging working people, is unfit for office.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Holly Johnson says
Thank you.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece.
Bill Anderson says
Mr. Dean, it is abundantly clear that at birth you were given a complete transfusion of democrat blood and perhaps an organ transplant. You see nothing but Godliness and good in president Joe Biden and nothing but bad in president Donald Trump. To expand upon the very few things that president Biden has done seems to blindly ignore the stupidity of his administration.
Evidently you have chosen to forget Biden’s executive orders that halted construction of the XL pipeline that would have delivered 800,000 barrels of Canadian oil to America on a daily basis. Biden’s orders that make it all but impossile for oil producers to drill for new oil in the nation further our energy problems and require that we purchase foreign supplies. Biden’s directive to utilize about twp-thirds of the nation’s strategic oil reserve, not for emergency use as intended, but in hopes of keeping gasoline prices artificially loe in the face of the 2022 mid-term elections. Biden’s “Build back better” lunacy has caused the country to borrow billions of dollars for unidentified projects which even he cannot discuss. Those are some of Biden’s largest failures, all designed to appease his environmental backers to whom he owed his election.
These failures are some of Mr. Biden’s failures and I view them as unforgivable.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Oh the faux outrage! What I call unforgivable are Republican book bans, canceling Bud light because a LGBT person was in an ad, and endorsing a sexual predator, who wants to tear up
the constitution.
I vote for individual freedom for every American and I vote for democracy.
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece. Please know that for several years, I was Republican counsel to a Congressional Committee. The Republican party I supported is dead. Also, I support Biden’s efforts to fight climate change. I see efforts to support the oil industry as “hurting me personally.”
In any case, except for your negative comment about me, thanks for the response.
Joseph A. Fick, Jr. says
Bravo!
Bridget Piasecki says
Perfectly said. I just hope people read this. I just wish people would educate themselves on politics. Seems like people base their decision on who the biggest bully is and the misinformation on facebook. I can’t believe that people rely on facebook to get the news. We the Free America has so many other news outlets available to us.
Jane E. Hukill says
Thank you for a very balanced letter.
Katherine M Grier says
Responding to Bill Anderson’s letter, from my reading, the Canadian oil intended for the XL pipeline was not meant for US consumption but to ship overseas. The oil traveling that pipeline would have had no effect, up or down, on our oil prices. That oil originates in the Alberta oil sands, where industrial chemicals are leeching into the groundwater. Pipelines distribute oil resources broadly, but there are huge contamination risks as well. Currently, the US has some 50% of existing pipelines standing idle, with no demand for increased capacity. Perhaps the goal for the US, the world’s largest importer and largest exporter of oil, might focus on cleaner, more efficient uses of the oil resources we have, as we transition gradually into renewable energy resources. As we did in the early 20th century, transitioning from coal, steam, and animal energy to fossil fuels. The cycle of change continues.
Beryl Smith says
Thank you Katherine. It was the explanation I was contemplating on making but you did it ever so much better than I would have. Sometimes people are too willing to jerk their knees with answers before they know the facts.
Joseph A. Fick, Jr. says
There he goes again…. Trump, Trump, Trump. A one-track mind.
…”Highly qualified, able advisors” I think that might be the problem as Biden himself doesn’t seem quite up to being responsible for much except reading(?) the cue cards they give him.
And what about that reference to the people of the Maryland Eastern Shore? Sounded like a Hilary Clinton ‘Basket of Deplorables’ comment.
Can’t wait to see the Christmas chapter of Mr. Dean’s Trump bashing diatribe.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Maybe open your eyes to what the Republican front runner is advocating: dismantling our Constitution,
using the Justice Department to avenge “his political enemies”, have “his” Justice Department erase
any Federal cases against him….the Founding Fathers are rolling in their graves as are the rest us living with a functioning brain. The reason he is running is to win and avoid prosecution.
Joe Biden does his job, does the right thing, makes good decisions based on facts at the moment.
As usual, Trump whines and complains and spins fantasies about what he would have done. Anyone talking about Biden’s age is just ignoring the truth – that he is still on top of his game, makes good calls and actually upholds the principles which have served this country well for over 200 years. Trump just rambles on like a drunk reliving what he sees as his 15 minutes. He just blathers incoherently, lying every time he opens those weird puckering lips with that grating voice that sets your teeth on edge like fingernails on a chalkboard. He just gets smaller and smaller and meaner and more incoherent and less relevant every day as his trials inch closer and closer. Trials which will reveal even more what a complete farce and traitor he
is.
LOL, what’s not to like, ugh. Can we please cancel for good this man in 2024 ? We all need a rest.
Tatiana Croissette says
I’m a bit confused: are the rest of the Leftists alive and with a functioning brain rolling in the grave with the Founding Fathers, or just you, Mrs. LaMotte?
Deirdre LaMotte says
Touché. But for you it is Ms. LaMotte. You know, we “leftest” progressives,
LOL
Patty Heaps says
Truly, now you just beclown yourself.
“The poll found that respondents view Trump as more “able” than Biden to oversee the economy, inflation, crime, border security, and “Israel-Hamas.”
Given our current state of affairs in each of these divisions, why wouldn’t they? Each and every American has been hurt by his policies in at least one of these areas. You brush off questions surrounding Biden’s mental acuity, allowing it because he relies heavily on “highly qualified, able advisors”, but are they really? The identity politics that rules this administration seems to prioritize checked boxes over ability, with press secretary KJP being a prime example. More often than not, we watch as he asks the press to leave the room, usually with a smile and smirk. A “press conference” is nothing more than performance art as he asks pre-approved reporters to ask pre-approved questions, with the answers on a cheat sheet, now with the added advantage of pictures for our “leader”. Given his dementia-like actions, some question how “able” he is to do anything and wonder who these trusted advisors are behind the curtain. All of us have seen him struggle and no, it’s not a stutter. All of us have watched him use 1/3 of his term on vacation and please don’t try to justify it by saying he’s working. Is he really? No one had ever heard the term “taking a lid” until Biden came into office and funny how those visitor logs to the Delaware beach house are not available.
“Even if you disagree with various Biden policies, I think, you have to give him the edge on “ability.” Right?” Incredible! When he came into office, all he had to do was leave those things alone. Instead, he has abused the privilege of Executive Orders and seems hell-bent on destroying our energy sector in a rabid push for green policies that are unproven. Everyone laughed at the suggestion that gas stoves would be banned but look at that – it’s happening at a cost that will far outweigh any benefits. Ability? Again, the mental abilities should take center stage. The folksy Uncle Joe is a fairy-tale by the media – he was a lackluster, mediocre Senator and is the worst President of my lifetime.
Just as Isaiah warned; in the last days, wrong will be right, and right will be wrong.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Are you serious? Biden is on top of EVERY
issue facing our nation. Daily. I am so sick of
hearing this….and with a GOP that cannot
function despite having the House majority
is comical. Please invest some reality because your post is a comment on
the mentality of a sad minority of your type.
Sorry, but true.
Holly Geddes says
Mr. Dean, I agree that polls are not a perfect measure of anything. The members of the other party, whichever one it is, always blames the other side for poor performance. Sometimes the problem with polls is that they set the beginning of the research too late or have too small a sample size. Also it is not entirely fair to blame the federal government for things within the jurisdiction of the states.
On the other hand, the WSJ poll shows a trend that others feel. If the leaders in the federal government encourage the states to certain policies that prove detrimental to our society, they must shoulder some of the blame.
If a primary cause for January 6 is that Ms. Pelosi turned down the offer for more security forces, then some of the blame is on her. If the federal government overspends and does not keep track of those expenditures, then the resulting economic turmoil lands in the lap of the federal government that is headed by the current president, Joe Biden. If the abandonment of both military supplies and friendly personnel (even Americans) from Afghanistan results in emboldening Mr. Putin to start the war in Ukraine, then Mr. Biden will be rightly blamed. If the shutting of any pipeline from Canada forces thousands of American fuel workers to loose their jobs with no possible replacement positions causing economic difficulties for those workers and their communities then the person who shut those pipelines, Mr. Biden is to blame. By the way this includes the hundreds of folks who worked in the refining plants in both Nebraska and Texas. Also, we were buying quite a bit of that oil. Shutting down the process of both permitting and licensing for drilling in the US on public and private land is also on Mr. Biden. Draining our emergency supply of oil to improve his election prospects also didn’t help the economy in the long run. If funding an enemy with the misguided guess that they will be more favorable towards ourselves and our allies emboldens Iran to fund Hamas in their monstrous behavior, then the war in Israel is in part Mr. Biden’s fault. And if an open border in the south west allows unvetted persons from both friendly and adversarial countries into our country is not the single most destructive thing a president can do, I don’t know what does. Many of these unvetted persons are terrorists who aim is to destroy our country by both actions and importing poison. There is one quote from Mr. Obama that I think bears repeating here. “Never underestimate Joe Biden’s ability … to f__k things up.”
As to competent advisors, to whom do you point? Mr. Mayorkas who claims the border is closed when south western states can produce pictures of thousands of persons crossing daily. Or is your star advisor Mr. Blinken, Ms. Yellen who curried favor of our good “friends” the Chinese, or Mr. Garland who has lied to congress multiple times, or Mr Buttigieg who couldn’t find a train wreck or airport problem even when looking for them?
I also worry for our country. The liberal faction has taken over the Democratic Party and it is destroying its very fabric. The demonstrations across our country and others point out the power of dictatorships to encourage the destruction of democracies. The anti-semitism that is so vocal is testament to an old evil that refuses to see people as individuals and looks at groups that are now viewed as good or bad. Our country has the enlightened philosophy that all persons are created equal and endowed with inborn rights. The current “liberal’ segregationist democrats who insist on dividing us all into separate groups are poison to our freedoms. The content of a person’s character is the best evaluation method. If this were still the method used by the Democrats, I would still be a member of the party. My new hero is Bill Maher.