There are four principal facts worth remembering when evaluating Putin’s “surprise” initiatives (Syria/Crimea/E. Ukraine), general bluster and super powerish assertions (UN speech): (1) the Russian economy is in serious trouble and is beginning to bite more and more people; (2) Putin needs to distract the population from their life style erosion; (3) Russian military is stretched very thin, particularly logistics and (4) appeals to past Russian glories, nationalism and sticking it to the US are popular. However, the Ukraine adventure, the body bags and the costs are becoming a domestic problem. A new diversion was necessary.
And then there is the emotional issue: Putin has repeatedly said the collapse of the Soviet Union was the worst disaster ever to befall Russia; not the 26 million Russians who died in WWII or the loss to Japan in the 1904 war or the declining population, now less than half America’s etc. His strongest motivation is to return Russia to its former status as a feared, highly respected global power of which he is the personification. His challenge: there’s no there there except the nukes.
Russia has been arming, resupplying and helping to finance the Assads for decades. In return, Moscow gained a small naval base at Latakia, it’s only Mediterranean port and a foothold in the Middle East. It is this base that Putin is now upgrading with a larger runway and more support facilities and to which he’s sent combat aircraft, drones, tanks, antiaircraft systems and several hundred “advisors”.
His announcement that Baghdad and Teheran are going to share intelligence about ISIS with Russia (no mention of Moscow’s contribution) is meaningless, unless Russia actually engages in combat. To date that has not happened.
Actually, Baghdad’s loosening grip on Iraq governance, is far more threatening to US interests than Russia’s entry onto the scene.
Putin’s move grabbed headlines and provided him a stage to intervene in the Middle East. He now postures himself and Russia as the powerful option to the US and as such to be taken seriously. He has proposed a new coalition (Russia, Iran and Iraq??) that will support Assad and his government (now control 17% of Syria) and successfully fight ISIS.
My view, wish the Russians well and encourage them to engage with ISIS, AQ, Al Nusra etc etc and possibly, bog down in a new Afghanistan, from which they were forced to withdrew after ten years. My guess, that’s not going to happen for all the reasons cited above.
Tom Timberman has, among his many assignments with the US Department of State, headed a provincial reconstruction team, embedded within a combat brigade in Iraq. He has also helped implement a new counterterrorism strategy in South East Asia as Senior Advisor for South Asia in the Office of Coordinator for Counterterrorism.
Stephan Sonn says
We are fortunate to have a person in this community with such vast and enduring expertise in his own element.
Now if only there were someone here who could offer the same level of expertise to the understanding of domestic matters.
Maybe because the range and substance of domestic matters is so riddled by subversion that reason is lost the fog of war.
joe diamond says
Tom,
What can you say of the Syrian Diaspora that seems to have depopulated the country? Refugees from the fighting are arriving all over Europe; 100,000 headed here. Any chance they will get home any time soon?
Thanks,
Joe
Stephen Meehan says
I think that it is naive to believe that Putin’s move in Syria is for domestic political diversion. That Russia wants to expand its warm water base is true, but the bigger reality is that Iran has long controlled both Assad regimes with money and technical assets. I traveled to Syria during 2006 while the Israelis were bombing in Lebanon. It is not overstating the role of Iran at the time (and now) when you saw the banner posters of Iranian President Ali Khameni, President Bashir Assad, and Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nezrollah hanging from nearly every lamp post from Damascus and beyond. It was very clear from talking to cab drivers and stall owners in the Souk that Assad was more puppet than master.
I have not been back, but keep in touch with people that are informed. Not much has changed except that now that the United States has completely destabilized Iraq creating the opportunity for Iran create the “Shi’ite Funnel” from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea. The last push could only be accomplished by bringing in Putin, the Strong Arm of Eurasia. Winter is coming and Europeans may have short term concerns about engaging Putin militarily, despite the Islamic invasion (or creep) that is likely to occur if the Russia-Iranian axis is not shut down.
Syria is nothing like Afghanistan. I am confident Mr. Timberman understands the latter region, but the Syrians are not rebellious or overtly nationalistic like the Afghanis. They are much more like Russians. People who despite the promise of Democracy and Equal Opportunity suffer from the beaten down social cancer of Marxist Equal Outcome, and always less and less outcome to share. They are growing tired and will submit to the new regime like they have submitted to the Assad regime, born in the era of Soviet satellite development.
This current result was set in motion by President Bush and those in Congress who voted for W’s war in Iraq. President Obama must now complete his burden of the total reversal of the disaster that was the Bush War. Like Nixon cleaning up after Kennedy and Johnson in Vietnam, President Obama must do so while preserving stability in Europe and the Middle East. Unfortunately, I see no prize of a trip to China.
Stephan Sonn says
Excellent
joe diamond says
Uh, Stephen,
Nixon was crazy….much in the same way Johnson was. Both wanted to be seen as the great leader / savior. Each failed to look out the window. If Nixon had not been shown the door he would have continued to send in plays from the sidelines as Lyndon had done. They saw a light at the end of the tunnel. I worry that the explanation of Putin’s actions is likewise found in his own ego and sense of how he will appear to other Russian politicians. Can it be that Obama will win this one by not playing?
Joe
Stephan Sonn says
This out of respect for you . I will not be writing here any more for lack of preferred venue.
I agree. Some of of Obama’s strategies work well, even if the given strategy is just to pass
The Koch are more dangerous to humanity than even Hitler
because media like this contribute to an uninformed public.
And some so called experts here wrap their confabulations in cold war cliche’.