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October 25, 2021

The Chestertown Spy

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Shore Residents Say Legislative Redistricting Panel Should Boost Representation of People of Color

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Eastern Shore residents urged members of the Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission to boost representation for people of color in their legislative maps at a Monday evening public hearing.

Sonya Whited, a Wicomico County resident, said during a public hearing at the Todd Performing Arts Center in Wye Mills that the commission should look at drawing an additional single-member delegate district with a majority of people of color on the Eastern Shore in their proposed legislative maps in addition to District 37A, which is represented by House of Delegates Speaker Pro Tem Sheree Sample-Hughes (D).

“We are at the point where carving out one minority district represented by Delegate Sheree Sample-Hughes is not enough to truly address the concerns of other minority and sometimes marginalized communities,” Whited said. “I am hopeful that this critical district could be part of the fair map drawing process versus a court case.”

Patrick Firth, the chairman of the Talbot County Democratic Central Committee, said the panel could create an additional single-member district that would stretch from Salisbury University to the University of Maryland Eastern Shore, the historically Black university in Princess Anne.

“It’s time for the General Assembly to recognize the changing population and growing diversity (of) the Eastern Shore,” Firth said.

He also said Talbot County should be drawn into a single-member district with parts of Caroline Counties rather than a broader district with portions of the lower Eastern Shore.

Whited also said she wants the commission to largely keep multi-member delegate districts in their legislative maps. Maryland’s delegate maps currently contain a mix of single- and multi-member districts, with multi-member districts generally used in more densely populated areas and some rural areas including on the Eastern Shore. Whited and other proponents of multi-member districts say having multiple delegates gives voters access to legislators with different areas of expertise and broader representation.

Single-member districts are generally used in geographically larger and more rural districts or when required by the Voting Rights Act to ensure representation of people of color. They are also sometimes used when a portion of a senatorial district crosses county lines. Proponents of single-member delegate districts say they make it easier for political newcomers to challenge incumbents and also give voters a single point of contact in the House of Delegates.

Diana Waterman, a Queen Anne’s County resident and former state Republican Party chair, testified in favor of single-member districts at the public hearing, and argued that using single-member districts statewide “would ensure that all citizens receive the same level of service from their delegate.”

Waterman said the LRAC should consider supporting maps drawn up by the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission, a multi-partisan panel created by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) and tasked with drawing up congressional and legislative maps that he will propose to the General Assembly. That panel recently released draft delegate maps with both single- and multi-member districts based largely on population density, and will hold a virtual public hearing Wednesday at 6 p.m.

The General Assembly, where Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate, will have the final say over the state’s next set of maps, and legislative leaders created the bipartisan LRAC to draw up their own set of maps.

Sen. Adelaide C. Eckardt (R-Lower Shore) said she supports single-member districts to ensure that individual counties have a shot at electing local delegates.

“Most of the counties want to make sure that they have somebody that lives in their district representing them,” Eckardt said.

Kathleen Bangert, speaking on behalf of several Eastern Shore chapters of the League of Women Voters, said her organization supports maintaining a mix of single- and multi-member districts in legislative maps.

“It is our position that the right mix of the two helps to promote full minority representation, preserve political and community boundaries, and encourage a more diverse candidate pool,” Bangert said.

Some Eastern Shore residents who testified at the public hearing also said the commission should look at crossing the Chesapeake Bay to include portions of Anne Arundel County with the Eastern Shore in congressional maps. The 1st Congressional District currently stretches into Harford, Carroll and Baltimore counties — but some who testified said Eastern Shore residents have more in common with Anne Arundel County because of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.

“There is clearly a strong association between the Eastern Shore and Anne Arundel-related business and workforce development interests that impact our shared regional economy,” Chestertown resident Rebecca Flora said.

Tara Newman-Bell, a Talbot County resident, said in addition to ensuring that people of color’s voting power isn’t diluted and that maps aren’t drawn to favor any particular political party, commission members should provide clear rationale behind their eventual congressional and legislative maps.

By Bennett Leckrone

Marylanders Urge Transparency at Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission Hearing

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Marylanders urged members of the General Assembly’s Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission at a Tuesday hearing to make draft maps available for public comment before the panel’s last public hearing in November, arguing that the public should have a chance to weigh in before the General Assembly takes them up for a vote.

“It seems rather difficult for people to comment on the basis of a blank map,” Jacqueline Coolidge of the League of Women Voters told the panel at the online hearing.

Edward Johnson, co-leader of the Maryland Legislative Coalition, a progressive advocacy group, said that meaningful hearings can happen only when the commission presents draft maps.

Legislative leaders are tentatively planning a special session in early December to handle congressional redistricting, and Johnson said maps should be produced for public comment before then.

Morgan Drayton, policy and engagement manager for Common Cause Maryland, also urged the commission to produce draft maps before it concludes its public hearings in November. And she said the commission should consider starting its next statewide virtual public hearing at 6 p.m., rather than 3 p.m., to allow Maryland residents who work during the day to participate.

Nicole Y. Drew of Delta Sigma Theta, a public service-focused sorority that advocates for black communities, said the commission needs to undertake a “fair and transparent” process. She also urged members of the commission to ensure that people of color don’t have their votes diluted in the state’s next set of maps.

Commission Chair Karl Aro, a former director of the Department of Legislative Services, said the commission “will have draft maps for comment” but is gathering information.

Commission member Sen. Bryan W. Simonaire (R) noted the commission is set to conclude its public hearings on Nov. 18, and pressed Aro on when draft maps will be available for public comment.

Aro said he hopes the commission will produce draft maps by Nov. 15, and said the pandemic-related delay in Census redistricting data is to blame for the panel’s time constraints.

Aro said the public will also be able to comment when proposed district maps come up for committee hearings in the General Assembly’s special and regular sessions.

The Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission’s next in-person meeting is set for Tuesday, Oct. 12 at 6 p.m. at Morgan State University in Baltimore.

The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission, a separate panel created by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) to draw maps that he will propose to the General Assembly, has already drafted maps for state senate and congressional districts and is currently weighing single- vs. multi-member delegate districts. That panel is set to begin its final round of virtual public hearings Wednesday at 6 p.m.

On Tuesday, the legislative commission also heard from Brandon Russell, a St. Mary’s County resident, who urged them to keep his county whole in congressional and state legislative maps. He noted that members of the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission included a portion of St. Mary’s County with Calvert County in their initial senate district maps, but that commission reversed course after backlash from county residents and made the county whole in a subsequent draft.

While both the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission and Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission are tasked with conducting public hearings and drafting maps for congressional and state legislative districts, the General Assembly will have the final say over the state’s coming redistricting. Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate.

By Bennett Leckrone

Commentary: Numbers That Tell Political Stories in the 1st District by Josh Kurtz

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Now that the General Assembly’s redistricting commission has begun meeting, even as Republican Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr.’s redistricting commission continues to hold sessions, it feels a little like the varsity team has finally taken the field. With all due respect to the other redistricting commissioners.

Hogan will attempt to get as much political mileage as he can from the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission he assembled earlier this year, and whatever maps the commission proposes for Congress and the state legislature will undergird Hogan’s bully pulpit when he argues, yet again, that partisanship needs to be taken out of the redistricting process.

The Hogan commission itself has been a bit of a masquerade — both the notion that its work product would result in maps that actually get due consideration in the General Assembly, along with the fiction that this has really been a non-partisan effort, when one of the co-chairs, Walter Olson, a senior fellow with the right-wing Cato Institute, has been calling most of the shots. It’s the legislature’s commission that’s going to produce the congressional and legislative boundaries that get adopted — unless and until the maps get taken to court.

With the Democrats firmly in control of the process for now, the big question is whether they will attempt to draw an 8-0 Democratic congressional map, potentially sending Republican Rep. Andrew P. Harris into political oblivion, or whether they will keep it at 7-1 but generate a cleaner-looking product.

The draft map that the Hogan/Olson commission circulated earlier this month appeared to have five solid Democratic districts, two Republican districts, and one that theoretically could be up for grabs. That more or less accurately reflects the state’s political makeup.

But when has that ever been a consideration during redistricting — here or in the other states where one political party controls the process? And why should Maryland Democrats “disarm” when Republicans aren’t going to do so in Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania? It may be the right thing to do but it isn’t the smart thing to do in the current national political environment.

According to sources on Capitol Hill and here in the Free State, no less an eminence than U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been brandishing a proposed Maryland map that shows Democrats with eight seats and Republicans with zero. She is touting it to her Maryland colleagues, urging them to embrace the idea, fully aware that are very few states where Democrats can take advantage of redistricting. In fact, national political analysts say that Republicans could take over control of the U.S. House in 2023 on redistricting gains alone — never mind whatever seats they’ll invariably pick up in the midterm elections.

Drawing an 8-0 Maryland map in favor of the Democrats, believe it or not, isn’t that difficult as a cartographic and statistical exercise. The resistance comes from the Democratic members of Congress themselves, who are often reluctant to give up safe territory even if doing so would help the partisan cause.

A quick look at the 2020 election results suggests that each of the seven Democratic House incumbents from Maryland have plenty of safe territory to sacrifice: Rep. Anthony G. Brown, whose 4th District includes Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties, won by 59 points last November; Rep. Kweisi Mfume, whose 7th District is anchored in Baltimore City but also takes in territory in Howard and Baltimore counties, won by 43 points; Rep. John P. Sarbanes, whose hideous-looking 3rd District touches five jurisdictions, won by 39 points.

Those bulging margins were followed by Rep. Steny H. Hoyer’s 38-point victory in the 5th District, which covers the three Southern Maryland counties plus Prince George’s and a piece of Anne Arundel; Rep. Jamie B. Raskin’s 36-point win in the 8th District, which is based in Montgomery but also takes in Frederick and Carroll counties; and Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger’s 35-point victory in the 2nd District, which touches Baltimore City and Baltimore and Harford counties.

Even in what’s seen as the closest thing to a competitive district in the state, the 6th — the district Democrats specifically carved out in Montgomery County and Western Maryland after the 2010 Census to pick up an extra seat — Rep. David J. Trone won by 16 points last year.

Imagine if each of these guys, minus Trone, said, “I’d be willing to shave 20 points off my victory margin.” How much easier would it then be for Democrats to put Harris’ seat in danger? Harris won reelection, by the way, by 27 points last year.

Our appointed General Assembly

When Cheryl S. Landis is sworn in as the next delegate from District 23B in Prince George’s County sometime this fall, she’ll become the 33rd member of the House of Delegates who was originally appointed to their seat. This is about one-quarter of the 141-member chamber.

And the numbers are certain to grow, with Del. Michael E. Malone (R-Anne Arundel) set to resign soon to take a judgeship, and Del. Erek L. Barron (D-Prince George’s) awaiting U.S. Senate confirmation to become Maryland’s U.S. attorney. Their slots will have to be filled as well.

The numbers aren’t any better in the Senate: In all, 12 of the 47 senators were originally appointed to their seats — five since the 2018 election alone. Add to that two senators who first entered the legislature as appointees to the House.

For those who need reminding, legislative vacancies in Maryland are filled by the governor, usually after receiving a recommendation from the relevant Democratic or Republican central committees in a departed lawmaker’s county. For Landis, it was probably pretty easy to get the recommendation: She’s the chair of the Prince George’s Democratic Central Committee. Several other appointees got their starts in politics serving on a central committee, which greased the skids for their appointment to the legislature.

Some lawmakers have tried to change the system, introducing legislation to require special elections to fill House and Senate vacancies in the first two years of the legislative term. The bill has passed the Senate in the past two years, and unanimously last year, but has stalled in the House.

It’s time to pass that bill. Is this the people’s legislature, or is it the province of political bosses and insiders?

In the meantime, we’d probably all better pay closer attention to central committee elections.

Josh Kurtz, founding editor of Maryland Matters, has been writing about state and local politics since 1995.

Md. Citizens Redistricting Panel Starts Second Round Of Public Hearings, Draws Draft Map

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The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission kicked off its second round of public hearings Thursday night, and drew up their first complete draft congressional map.

Commission members reviewed several draft maps of individual congressional districts drawn up by their resident redistricting expert, Nathaniel Persily, for “illustrative, instructional and potential discussion” purposes at the meeting.

Those maps mostly deal with individual regions of the state and are available online, but aren’t meant to reflect the commission’s final plans. Commission members also drew up a draft congressional map and agreed on a few general principles such as not crossing the Chesapeake Bay and creating a western Maryland district that includes Carroll County.

In addition to those principles, the draft map combines the three southern Maryland counties with southern Prince George’s County; combines most of Anne Arundel County with Howard County; keeps Baltimore City whole by combining it with portions of northern Anne Arundel County; and includes part of northern Montgomery County in the western Maryland district.

The draft map, which would add a second Republican-leaning district in western Maryland, generally features fewer county splits than the state’s current congressional maps. Baltimore is currently split between three congressional districts, and in the draft it is entirely contained within one. Anne Arundel County is currently split between four congressional districts, and is split between two in the draft map. Baltimore County also sees less splits in the draft.

The commission is still conducting public hearings and accepting map submissions for the public, so the draft map is likely to change.

The individual congressional districts included in the draft congressional map may be viewed in the pdf below.

2021-0909-individual-district-maps-for-draft-cong-plan

 

Just two speakers from the public testified at last week’s hearing: Zulieka Baysmore, a Baltimore resident who was a candidate in the 2020 Republican mayoral primary, and Reuben Collins, the Democratic president of the Charles County Board of Commissioners.

Collins noted that Charles County was one of the fastest-growing counties in Maryland, according to U.S. Census data, and said commission members should “look at amplifying opportunities for minority representation” in his county.

Baysmore urged commission members to keep districts competitive in their proposed maps rather than “fully red or fully blue.”

The commission has received 10 map submissions from the public to date, Maryland Department of Planning Director of Public Affairs Kristin Fleckenstein said at the meeting. The commission’s next virtual public hearings are set for 6 p.m. Monday, Sept. 13, and Tuesday, Sept. 14.

The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission was created via executive order by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) and includes three Republicans, three Democrats and three unaffiliated voters. The commission is tasked with drawing up congressional and legislative maps that Hogan plans to submit to the General Assembly.

The General Assembly, where Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate, will have the final say over proposed maps. The Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission announced Friday that it would hold its first public hearing at 6 p.m. Sept. 20 at Prince George’s Community College in Largo as part of its map-making process.

By Bennett Leckrone

Mid-Shore Saw Little Population Growth; QA’s County Added 2K Residents, Kent Lost 1K

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Although Maryland’s population increased nearly 7% between 2010 and 2020, population growth on the Mid-Shore was virtually stagnant. Queen Anne’s County accounted for most of the growth in the last decade; Kent County’s population decline was the highest in the region.

Census population numbers are used to “determine the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives and is also used to distribute hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funds to local communities,” according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The numbers are also used to draw state legislative districts and county-level districts for county council or commission and board of education where those seats are elected by district.

While much of the focus is on the congressional and state legislative districts, the 2020 population figures may require some small adjustments for county-level seats that are elected from districts.

Queen Anne’s County, with 2,000 more residents, likely will require the most adjustments for its county commission and school board seats, depending on where the new residents are distributed. Kent County does not elect members from districts for county commission or school board and will not need to make any adjustments despite losing nearly 1,000 residents.

Mid-Shore public bodies with districts include:

Caroline County — board of education, three districts;

Dorchester County — county council, five districts; board of education, five districts;

Queen Anne’s County — county commissioners, four districts, one at-large; board of education, four districts, one at-large;

Talbot County — board of education, seven districts.

The biggest battles will occur with the congressional and state legislative district maps. Maryland’s current congressional map is considered one of the most gerrymandered in the nation. Gov. Martin O’Malley and Democratic lawmakers packed Democratic areas into a western Maryland district that had repeatedly elected a Republican to Congress. The mapping process following the 201o Census also put more Republicans into the First District, which encompasses the Eastern Shore.

As a result, Maryland’s congressional representation went from six Democrats and two Republicans to seven Democrats and one Republican (the First District’s Andy Harris).

Two redistricting commissions — one appointed by Gov. Larry Hogan and another by Maryland legislative leaders — are already at work on the maps for the congressional and legislative district maps.

The state planning department offers adjusted redistricting data on its website, which also includes a link to a mapping web portal through which anyone may submit proposed redistricting maps for review by the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission appointed by Hogan.

Outside groups also have offered maps, with several available to view at Dave’s Redistricting, “a free web app to create, view, analyze and share redistricting maps for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, according to the site.

The website offers five notable maps — most proportional, most competitive, best minority representation, most compact, and least splitting — for congressional, state senate, and state house redistricting plans.

At presstime, the notable congressional maps for proportionality, competitiveness, and compactness would split the Eastern Shore into two districts. The First Congressional District currently includes the entire Eastern Shore from Cecil to Worcester county and portions of Harford, Baltimore, and Carroll counties.

The current most proportional and most competitive congressional map would create a district that includes Queen Anne’s to Worcester county on the Eastern Shore, the southern Maryland counties of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s, and a portion of Prince George’s County. That district is seen in yellow below.

The most proportional and most competitive Maryland congressional district maps published thus far would include seven Eastern Shore counties, three southern Maryland counties, and a portion of Prince George’s County. Screenshot from Dave’s Redistricting.

The most compact congressional map has a district that includes Kent to Worcester county, the three southern Maryland counties, and portions of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties. That district is seen in light purple below.

The most compact Maryland congressional district maps published thus far would include eight Eastern Shore counties, three southern Maryland counties, and portions of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties. Screenshot from Dave’s Redistricting.

It’s Map Drawing Time. Citizens Redistricting Commission Opens Public Submissions

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Marylanders can now submit their own proposals for redistricting to the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission, state officials announced Thursday.

The Maryland Department of Planning’s new submission portal allows users to map their proposals for congressional and state legislative districts, and includes instructions on how to draw districts.

Members of the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission will review maps that are received by noon on Sept. 24, according to the planning department. More submissions will be accepted when that panel begins its third round of hearings in October.

The map submission portal uses redistricting data which counts incarcerated Marylanders as residents of their last known address, as required by Maryland law, according to the release.

The nine-member commission — which includes three Democrats, three Republicans and three unaffiliated voters — is set to start a new round of public hearings on Sept. 9. That hearing will be virtual.

The commission worked with Stanford Law School professor Nathaniel Persily to hash out some rough criteria for maps on Wednesday. Although the commission won’t make its redistricting proposal for some time and will consider citizens’ proposals, members said they hope to have some early drafts ready for public comment by next week.

Commission members also mulled whether to keep the Eastern Shore whole or cross the Chesapeake Bay to create a district consisting of part of Southern Maryland and the Lower Shore. Commission Member Kimberly Rose Cummings (R), a Dorchester County resident, noted that some Lower Shore residents told panelists, during an initial round of public hearings, that they have more in common with Southern Maryland residents than with residents of north and central Maryland.

There is historical precedent for crossing the Chesapeake Bay in a congressional district, as the state’s 1st Congressional District once included portions of Southern Maryland as well as the entire Eastern Shore from the early 1970s to the early 1990s. The 1st District currently includes all of Maryland’s Eastern Shore and portions of Baltimore, Harford and Carroll countries.

Commission Co-chair Alexander Williams Jr. (D), a Prince George’s County resident and retired federal judge, said that rapidly developing Charles County has more in common with parts of Prince George’s County than with other parts of Southern Maryland. Commission members chose to leave both options on the table for public comment and map submissions.

As for drawing a district in Western Maryland, commission Co-chair Walter Olson (R) said the panel should look to include Carroll County with Frederick, Garrett and Allegany counties. Olson and Williams served on an emergency commission to redraw the state’s 6th Congressional District before the Supreme Court reversed a 2018 order to redraw the district. Olson said that, during the emergency commission’s run, Carroll County residents “overwhelmingly” asked to be included in a Western Maryland district.

Whether the Western Maryland district would draw from portions of northern Montgomery or Howard counties remains an open question for commission members.

None of the commission’s initial criteria are set in stone, rather they are meant to be a baseline for public comment during upcoming public hearings.

Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) created the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission via executive order to draw congressional and legislative maps that he will propose to the General Assembly. Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate, and lawmakers will have the final say over the state’s next set of maps.

Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) and House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County) created their own bipartisan redistricting commission, the Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission, to draw congressional and legislative maps. The legislative commission held its first meeting this week and is set to kick off a statewide round of public hearings on Sept. 20 with a hearing focused on Prince George’s County.

By Bennett Leckrone

Legislative Redistricting Commission Promises Transparent Process at First Meeting

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Maryland’s General Assembly will have the final say over the state’s next set of congressional and legislative maps, and legislative leaders’ bipartisan redistricting commission held its first meeting Tuesday evening.

The Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission, convened by Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) and House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County), will conduct public hearings before proposing congressional and legislative maps. Karl Aro, former executive director of the non-partisan Department of Legislative Services, is the commission’s chair.

The Department of Legislative Services will be responsible for drawing maps based on the commission’s input, Aro said. He said the map drafts will be confidential until the commission is ready to release its proposal to the public.

Jodie Chilson of the Department of Legislative Services said that any member of the General Assembly will be able to request a map be drawn.

“Any request that comes to us for that would be confidential even with respect to the commission,” Chilson said. “Once the map is drawn and you get it, you can do with it what you want, but as we’re drawing it that would be confidential.”

The departments of Planning and Legislative Services finalized data to be used for redistricting on Tuesday, Legislative Services Senior Policy Analyst Michelle Davis told members of the panel. The U.S. Census data used for redistricting was released last month, but state officials needed to adjust that data to comply with Maryland law, which requires that incarcerated people are counted as residents of their known address. She said that data will be available to the public soon.

Senate Minority Leader Bryan W. Simonaire (R-Anne Arundel), a member of the panel, pressed for a bipartisan map-drawing process, and said he hopes commission members work together when it comes to creating a single, cohesive map.

“We’re not in the majority and don’t pretend to be there, but I would like to be included as opposed to Republicans going off and doing their maps, Democrats going off and doing their maps,” he said.

Simonaire noted that after the 2010 Census, Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) created a redistricting commission to conduct public hearings, but according to depositions from the Benisek v. Lamone case, most map-drawing during that process was done away from the public eye by political operatives and incumbents.

“We ended up with some of the worst maps in the nation … especially on the congressional side,” Simonaire said.

Aro said he hopes the legislative commission will produce a map that makes people feel that their communities are largely kept whole, but warned that some areas will likely have to be split due to how complex the process is. He likened redistricting to “doing brain surgery with a sledge hammer.”

“My hope too is that the geography will look, for lack of a better word, prettier,” Aro said. “It should. I imagine we’ll just have to work our way through it.”

Ferguson said public input will be “absolutely essential” to the commission’s work and pledged a transparent process.

“We will have a fair and transparent process, and in order for that to happen we need to hear from the public,” Ferguson said.

Jones likewise underscored the importance of public input.

“For those Marylanders watching this online, we are asking you to show up at our hearings, write us letters, and send us your ideas,” Jones said. “We are listening.”

Jones also acknowledged that the redistricting debate likely won’t end when the General Assembly adopts maps.

“There’s a good chance that these maps will end up in court,” she said. “That is the nature of redistricting. We will follow the advice of counsel at every step, making sure that the rights of all Marylanders are protected.”

The Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission will conduct region-based and statewide public hearings in the coming months, and will kick off with a public hearing in Prince George’s County on Monday, Sept. 20. The location of that meeting wasn’t immediately available, but the meeting will be live streamed.

Other lawmakers on the commission are Senate President Pro Tempore Melony Griffith (D-Prince George’s), House Majority Leader Eric Luedtke (D-Montgomery) and House Minority Leader Jason Buckel (R-Allegany).

The Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission is one of two panels tasked with conducting public hearings and drawing up a proposed set of congressional and legislative maps in the coming months: Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) created the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission earlier this year to create maps that he will propose to the General Assembly.

That commission includes three Republicans, three Democrats and three unaffiliated voters, and completed one round of public hearings before the release of U.S. Census data in August.

Hogan plans to introduce both the congressional and legislative maps that are drawn by the Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission. The governor is required to introduce legislative maps, but statutes are silent on who is responsible for introducing congressional maps. The General Assembly is allowed to make changes to those maps and draw their own.

While both commissions are tasked with drawing up maps, the ultimate authority for mapmaking in Maryland rests with the General Assembly, where Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate.

Hogan can veto only congressional maps, although lawmakers easily overrode his vetoes on such measures as police and education reform during the 2021 legislative session. He can’t veto the General Assembly’s legislative maps, but his proposed maps would become law if the General Assembly doesn’t pass a redistricting plan within the first half of the 2022 legislative session.

At a media briefing ahead of the legislative panel’s first meeting Tuesday, Simonaire and Buckel reiterated their support for Hogan’s Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission.

“The best way to do redistricting is in a bipartisan or nonpartisan fashion, letting the citizens drive the redistricting process rather than the politicians in the back room,” Buckel said.

Simonaire previously predicted that the legislative commission’s final vote would come down to a party-line split. He said Tuesday that he remains “skeptical” of the legislative redistricting commission.

Congressional maps could be adopted by the General Assembly later this year, with legislative leaders considering a special session in December to tackle congressional redistricting.

By Bennett Leckrone

Md. Citizens Redistricting Commission Brings on National Election Law Expert as Consultant

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The Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission is bringing on Nathaniel Persily, a nationally recognized expert on redistricting, to help draw up their congressional and legislative maps.

Commission Co-chair Walter Olson, a senior fellow at Cato Institute’s Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies, announced at a Wednesday night meeting that Persily would serve as the panel’s adviser. He called Persily an “eminent” figure in the field of redistricting.

Redistricting expert Nathaniel Persily

Persily, the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, previously served as a court-appointed expert for the redrawing of Maryland’s legislative plan in 2002. He has also been appointed by courts to help redraw legislative or congressional districts in Connecticut, Georgia, New York and North Carolina.

Persily will serve as the commission’s chief map-drawer and resident redistricting expert, and will use the panel’s input to craft congressional and legislative maps.

Persily is advising commissions across the country as part of the current round of redistricting — including the Prince George’s County Redistricting Commission. His role will be paid, Department of Planning spokeswoman Kristin Fleckenstein said in an email, but an exact funding figure wasn’t immediately available Wednesday night.

The multi-partisan Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission was created by Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) to draw up congressional and legislative maps that he will propose to the General Assembly. Lawmakers will have the final say over what the state’s next set of maps look like, and Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate.

House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County) and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) announced their own bipartisan redistricting commission earlier this summer. That commission is chaired by former Department of Legislative Services Executive Director Karl Aro, who was appointed alongside Persily to redraw the state’s legislative maps after a 2002 lawsuit overturned the state’s legislative map.

Both of the commissions are planning to hold public hearings after Census redistricting data is adjusted to comply with Maryland law by having incarcerated individuals reallocated to their last known address. Fleckenstein said at the meeting that the data is expected to be ready next week.

By Bennett Leckrone

Analysis: Census Data and the Political Reordering to Come in Md.

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Baltimore City leaders knew they were coming.

And yet, the newest population numbers from the U.S. Census, delivered Thursday on the hottest day of the year, hit them like a torrent of cold water in the face.

Baltimore’s dramatic 5.7% population loss over the past 10 years means the city is sure to face a corresponding loss of political clout in the decade ahead — no matter how many allies it has in the highest echelons of power in Annapolis.

That’s one of many political threads that will be pulled over the next several months, as state politicians and policymakers seek to use the Census data as part of the recipe for congressional and legislative district maps that will be in place until the elections of 2032.

Baltimore wasn’t the only Maryland jurisdiction to see significant population losses — far from it. But the latest numbers did produce a significant degree of handwringing in the city.

Donald C. Fry, president and CEO of the business group the Greater Baltimore Committee, called it “unacceptable for a city with the many positive attributes Baltimore has, from its affordability, diversity, strong neighborhoods, historical and cultural attractions to world class healthcare and universities, to lose residents.”

Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott (D) scrambled to put the dreary numbers in historical context and asserted that city leaders are putting policies in place to stanch the bleeding and slowly build back the city’s population.

“Today’s population figures are the culmination of more than 70 years of population decline, showing why we must pivot from the status quo towards inclusive economic policies that improve the lives of our legacy residents, while attracting new residents,” Scott said Thursday. “Understanding that much of Baltimore’s 21st century population loss has been driven by an exodus of African American households, my administration will be focused on equitable economic development. We can no longer leave any corner of our city behind.”

Census figures help determine how much federal aid is distributed to states and local jurisdictions, but they are also key weapons in the raw redistricting political battles that will follow.

Overlaying Maryland’s current congressional and legislative district maps with the map of of the latest county-by-county population trends is an interesting exercise.

Even the most gerrymandered political maps must start at the corners of the state — far Western Maryland and the Lower Eastern Shore. And at both poles of the state, the population, with the exception of Wicomico County on the Shore, has declined over the past decade. That’s part of a national trend that saw rural population drop sharply while it increased in urban and suburban areas — and will have implications for what congressional and legislative boundaries in Maryland look like.

From the minute he took office, Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R) has sought to inject himself in the redistricting process — or at least take the power away from the Democratic supermajorities in the General Assembly and, by extension, the most senior Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation. But the fact remains that legislative leaders, working in tandem with U.S. House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), will have the most say.

For State House Democrats, knowing that Republican legislatures will attempt to help the GOP seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives by muscling through baldly gerrymandered maps, there will be temptations to create an 8-0 Democratic congressional map in Maryland (the state delegation currently has seven Democrats and one Republican). But the Census figures show that population trends in certain red states weren’t as stark as they could have been — meaning Republicans won’t have quite as much power to bludgeon Democrats in those places as they might have expected.

“Early read: based on the strong urban and weaker rural numbers I’m seeing, this is a much more favorable Census count than minority advocacy groups/Dems had feared,” Dave Wasserman, the House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report tweeted Thursday.

As a result, Maryland Democratic strategists believe, party leaders are more likely to try to produce a 7-1 Democratic congressional map again — albeit one that is cleaner, with fewer tortured contours, and that is less susceptible to lawsuit than the post-2010 Census map.

Baltimore City currently has three congressional districts cutting through its borders. Anne Arundel County has four. Howard County has three. Baltimore County has four. The result is messy, nonsensical districts in the central part of the state. That may change.

With population losses on the Eastern Shore, the 1st Congressional District, held by the state’s lone Republican member of Congress, Rep. Andrew P. Harris, will probably need to gain more territory on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. Where those precincts are added may determine how competitive a re-election race Harris will face in 2022 — most likely against former state Del. Heather R. Mizeur (D).

Maryland mapmakers actually have more flexibility when it comes to drawing legislative districts — where population variations of as much as 10% are permissible (each congressional district must contain the exact same population, to the extent possible). Even so, Baltimore City, which has steadily lost representation over the past few decades, is likely to lose more seats.

It’s already accepted wisdom in Annapolis that the 44th District, which currently contains a one-member House subdistrict in Baltimore City and two House seats in Baltimore County, will push out into the county exclusively — meaning the legislative tenure of Roxane Prettyman (D), who has been recommended by the Baltimore City Democratic Central Committee to fill a vacancy in District 44A, could be short-lived.

Another Baltimore City legislative district that has seen modest population growth, District 46, may have to lose some city precincts to make whole other city districts — and could extend south toward Glen Burnie or even BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport.

Howard County’s population growth means it may no longer have to share one legislative district with Baltimore County. Frederick County’s population growth means it may not have to share a legislative district with Carroll County. Southern Maryland’s representation in Annapolis is also likely to grow — though Democrats undoubtedly will try to maximize their advantage in fast-growing Charles County, which, according to the latest Census figures, is now over 50% Black.

And population losses in Garrett and Allegany counties mean the 1st legislative district will necessarily have to push farther east into Washington County.

The Maryland Department of Planning will now take the Census figures and spend the next few weeks adjusting them to account for the state’s incarcerated population. Under state law, incarcerated individuals are countered as residents of the jurisdictions where they previously lived, rather than the jurisdiction of the prisons where they are serving their sentences. This could help limit Baltimore City’s population loss to a small degree.

Hogan and legislative leaders are relying on the work of dueling redistricting commissions to help guide them on the maps they will propose in an upcoming special session of the General Assembly to finalize a congressional map, and during the regular 2022 session when legislative lines must be adopted. Even though Democrats have the upper hand, Hogan was already attempting to grab the moral high ground on Thursday.

“All across our state, Marylanders are demanding an end to partisan gerrymandering from partisan politicians in the legislature and supporting the work of the independent and nonpartisan Maryland Citizens Redistricting Commission,” he said on Twitter.

By Josh Kurtz

2020 Census Data: Fewer than Half of Marylanders are White, Baltimore Population Slips, Montgomery Surpasses 1M

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Maryland became more diverse over the last decade and the number of residents who identify as white alone dropped below half the state’s population, reflecting a nationwide trend, according to U.S. Census bureau data released Thursday afternoon.

The state’s overall population increased 7% since 2010, up to 6,177,224 residents in 2020. It is the first time the state’s population has topped more than 6 million residents in a decennial Census.

Montgomery County accounts for about one-sixth of the state population, and became the first jurisdiction in state history to register more than 1 million residents in the Census.

The data released Thursday also confirmed continued population loss in the city of Baltimore. In 1950, the city had just under a million residents — 949,708 — but that figure has been sliding ever since.

There were 585,708 Baltimoreans counted in the 2020 Census.

Here are four takeaways from the data:

Less than half of Marylanders identified as white

Less than half of Maryland’s population now identifies as white alone, according to Census data. The state saw a 10.5% decrease in the number of people who identify as white alone between 2010 and 2020, according to Census data, and that figure now stands at 48.7%.

Every county in the state saw decreases in the number of people identifying as white alone over the past decade.

The percentage of the population identifying as Hispanic or Latino increased from 8.2% in 2010 to 11.8% in 2020.

The percentage of Marylanders identifying as Asian alone increased from 5.5% in 2010 to 6.8% in 2020, and the percentage that identifies as Black or African American alone increased slightly from 29.4% in 2010 to 29.5% in 2020, according to the data.

Those figures reflect increasing diversity across the United States, according to Census data. The percentage of Americans identifying as white alone fell 8.6% nationwide between 2010 and 2020.

Garrett County had the largest white population in Maryland — 95.5% of county residents — while Prince George’s County had the smallest — 12.9%. The percentage of Prince George’s County residents who identify as white alone fell by nearly 25% over the last decade; the county ranks 11th nationwide for its percentage of non-white population, according to the Census Bureau.

Baltimore’s population dropped below 600,000 for the first time in a century

While Baltimore County grew between 2010 and 2020, the city of Baltimore saw yet another decline in population during the last decade.

The city had a population of 585,708 as of the 2020 Census compared with 620,961 in 2010, a 5.7% decrease. The 1910 Census was the last time Baltimore’s population was under 600,000. Baltimore’s population has been in decline since it topped out at 949,708 in 1950, according to the city’s planning department.

In a Thursday news release, Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott (D) said he plans to launch a growth plan for 2030 aimed at improving quality of life in the city.

“Today’s population figures are the culmination of more than 70 years of population decline, showing why we must pivot from the status quo towards inclusive economic policies that improve the lives of our legacy residents, while attracting new residents,” Scott said in a release. “Understanding that much of Baltimore’s 21st century population loss has been driven by an exodus of African American households, my administration will be focused on equitable economic development. We can no longer leave any corner of our city behind.”

Baltimore’s 5.7% population percentage drop wasn’t the most dramatic in the state: Allegany County lost 9.3% of its population between 2010 and 2020, dropping from 75,087 to 68,106.

Somerset County saw a 7% decrease, with its population decreasing from 26,470 to 24,620.

Kent County, Maryland’s smallest by population, saw a 4.9% decrease, dipping below 20,000 to 19,198.

Dorchester, Garrett and Talbot counties also saw population decreases.

Montgomery County tops 1 million residents; Frederick, Howard and Charles saw massive growth

Montgomery County became the first Maryland jurisdiction in history with a population topping 1 million in a decennial census. The county’s official population grew 9.3% in the last decade and now stands at 1,062,061.

Montgomery’s population has more than doubled since the 1970 Census, when there were 522,809 residents.

Frederick County was home to the fastest growth in Maryland, with its population increasing by 16.4% between 2010 and 2020.

Howard County saw a 15.8% increase in its population, and Charles County saw a 13.7% increase.

In all, seven of Maryland’s “Big Eight” counties saw population growth over the past decade.

Prince George’s County’s population grew by 12%; Anne Arundel County saw a 9.4% increase and now has a higher population than Baltimore City at 588,261; Harford County saw a 6.6% increase; and Baltimore County’s population increased by 6.1%.

Southern Maryland’s growth wasn’t confined to Charles County: St. Mary’s County saw a population increase of 8.2% and Calvert County’s population increased by 4.6%.

What does this data mean for redistricting?

The raw, untabulated data released by Census officials Thursday will be used by lawmakers and redistricting commissions across the country for mapmaking — but it will need some adjustments before it’s ready to be used in Maryland’s redistricting process.

Maryland Department of Planning officials will need several weeks to adjust the data to comply with Maryland law and move currently incarcerated people back to their last known address. Once that adjustment is finished, that data will be used by Maryland’s dueling redistricting commissions to draw up proposed congressional and legislative maps.

By Bennett Leckrone, Danielle E. Gaines, and William F. Zorzi.