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January 19, 2021

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Point of View Al Sikes Eco Top Story

Harm and Probability by Al Sikes

January 13, 2020 by Al Sikes

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Rising sea levels—resulting inundations. Extinctions—a serious blow to bio-diversity. Arctic ice melting releasing more carbon dioxide. And on and on. 

It is important to keep in mind that these are not ideological theories but scientific ones supported by the analysis and trajectory of past and current data. The next time a politician minimizes the risks of climate change ask him/her whether they favor de-funding the scientific work done by the National Space and Aeronautics Administrations (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

Climate change forecasts and consequences are not few in number. Yet, another kind of heat, political, often causes a quick thumbs up or down of a given study, chart or essay depending on the source. So here are readable summaries of key findings by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, from which we all get our weather forecasts. https://www.climate.gov/climate-and-energy-topics/climate-projections-0  

Devastated forests, acidic oceans, tidal inundation and, and; well I don’t want to roll the dice for my children, grandchildren and beyond.  Which, of course, brings me again to the question of probability. 

With apologies to the forgotten source, this analogy makes sense to me. A doctor can diagnose an illness just as NOAA can accurately predict the weather for several days.  A doctor can also predict troubles ahead if his/her patient is overweight and sedentary. Global choices of production, transportation, energy use and the like have altered atmospheric gasses in perilous ways. We, yes the global we, are overweight and sedentary.

Paris Climate Agreement

So, what should we do? Here again the literature is not sparse. There is no end of scientific journals, government agency studies and the like that point to ways we can mitigate the threat. And, of course, there is the Paris Climate Agreement that points to specific targets. There must be targets and initiatives that achieve their ends. The internationally agreed upon target of limiting global temperature increase to no more than a 2 degrees Celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit is the result of careful analysis. America should be an active member of the Convention which led to the Agreement and use its targets. 

Markets

The United States knows the power of markets. There is a carbon credits market—we should be a part of it. At its simplest, carbon emitters (for simplicity sake companies) are assigned acceptable levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Companies that emit less receive credits that they can sell to companies that exceed the limit. The force of financial rewards or penalties works.

Nuclear

I am all in favor of alternative energy incentives, but to meet ambitious goals we will need to use zero-carbon emission nuclear energy. It has always been passing strange to me that America has a nuclear navy but now resists civilian nuclear power generation. Since the Navy is well organized to manage a widespread nuclear program, I would be happy to put them in charge of a civilian one, a Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) if you will. TVA is the nation’s largest government-owned power provider and among other things sells electricity to local power companies. 

One thing to keep in mind, the worst power plant accidents in the United States were hydroelectric ones. Climate change threats, if taken seriously, need a comprehensive response.

Transportation

Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gasses and increasingly we buy things that are brought to our houses by trucks. China is already using drones for rural delivery. We should be doing the same.

Plus, all fossil fuel subsidies should be phased out. It will need to be done over some period of time so as to not drive up fuel prices rapidly with the likelihood of severe political backlash.

These thoughts are in no way exhaustive. Progress is being made in greenhouse gas recycling and sequestration, for example. What I do know is that if incentives are created for technologies that reduce greenhouse gases, American ingenuity will find solutions and build companies that cannot be currently imagined. Related investment, business start-ups and jobs will provide a significant economic boost. 

But here is my fear. We are in the middle of a political brawl. Too many Republicans dismiss science as somehow a part of the other side’s playlist. And, too many Democrats suffer from Three Mile Island syndrome, notwithstanding minimal health effects and noted precautionary improvements since the accident. 

Final Thought

A friend of mine recently used the word Staycation. I asked that it be repeated. I learned that it means a stay at home vacation. Maybe we need to think more about the wonders of our own backyards and the power of we.

We is a powerful pronoun, The power of we or if you prefer, concerted action, can move mountains. We have spent much of our energy seeking to dominate nature. We need a campaign to live with it. 

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Don’t miss the latest! You can subscribe to The Chestertown Spy‘s free Daily Intelligence Report here.

 

Filed Under: Al Sikes Eco, Top Story Tagged With: Al Sikes, Chestertown Spy, conservation, Talbot Spy

What Do We Comprehend? By Al Sikes

January 6, 2020 by Al Sikes

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One of my obligatory visits after becoming Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission was to Alaskan villages that were being transformed by communications technology. I can remember going into a very remote village store and seeing videocassette movies straight from Hollywood. More than just communications was being transformed.

Alaska’s subsistence farmers and fishermen were in nature’s loop—overfish or hunt or plant and nature’s bounty will disappear. The next generation was losing its connection.

In the “lower 48”, as Alaskans say, most people lost their organic connection to nature decades ago. The intersecting lines of production, storage, transportation and distribution and their effect on nature is barely understood. 

Yet, if we turn to our human-made infrastructure, the story is different. In 2018 Gallup reported that, “Infrastructure spending has bipartisan support: in addition to winning broad national support, infrastructure renewal sparked majority support from both major parties last year.” 

As this political consensus translates into another trillion dollar package, can we afford to compartmentalize the importance of nature’s infrastructure? What about the disappearance of pollinators and birds? When we abolish natural settings they disappear. And what happens when the plant life which helps to balance atmospheric gasses is largely replaced by the plow, chemicals or some version of concrete or hard metals?

Ultimately, the integrity of nature is often a neighborhood question. Governments can seek to regulate, but day-to-day attitudes are extremely important. And, they ultimately translate into who we elect. 

One easy attitude test is litter. Survey the rights-of-way before and after the “Do Not Litter” signs for attitude. And when you are driving or walking along streams, creeks, ditches and the like do you see tree rows? Trees are a first line defense against pollutants while providing an important CO2 sink and shade for the waterway. And, take a look at the larger water basin. Basins are plant nurseries. Do they exist or are they constrained by some form of engineered compaction?

Collectively we watched as the Cuyahoga River southeast of Cleveland actually caught fire. Yes, human actions or inactions caused water to burn. We learned causality in high school chemistry as chemical elements were altered. I recall guys loved to cause minor explosions. 

If attitude and individual approaches toward how we live our lives are important, our concerted action can be pivotal.

Ducks Unlimited (DU) is a good example of neighborhood attitudes writ large. It is also proof that individuals sharing a common goal can have an enormous impact on nature.

A New York Times article in September of 2018, The Crisis for Birds Is a Crisis for Us All began its review of a comprehensive study by scientists covering the United States and Canada with this preface: “Nearly one-third of the wild birds in the United States and Canada have vanished since 1970, a staggering loss that suggests the very fabric of North America’s ecosystem is unraveling.”

The study found an important outlier: “Fortunately, it’s not all bad news. Populations of North American ducks and geese have grown by 56 percent since 1970, according to the Science paper, and this is not an accident. During the first half of the 20th century, hunters became deeply concerned about declines in duck populations every bit as severe as those we’re witnessing among common songbirds today. The United States and Canada responded with laws to protect wetlands and collaborated with Mexico to safeguard migrating waterfowl. Conservation management became increasingly driven by science. Private philanthropy, especially by Ducks Unlimited, generated significant financial support for wetlands acquisitions. Millions of additional acres of wetlands were restored and protected by the federal and state governments. The result: Waterfowl populations are booming today.”

DU has protected or restored 14 million acres of wetland. And DU Canada reports: “Canada’s wetlands store approximately 150 billion tons of carbon. That’s equivalent to the emissions of roughly six billion cars over 20 years.”

If we turn to farmland use it is now mostly under the corporate plow, owned by entities seeking to maximize return. Iowa State University Farmland Value Survey reports a 346% increase in cost per acre since 1981. It further noted that the investors “..…favor conventional agriculture—the kind that uses the agro-chemicals, mono-cropping, and extensive tilling that continue to degrade American farmland. For financial investors, commodity crops are king, and it’s hard to imagine that they will change their minds anytime soon.”

As I turn back to my own neighborhood, the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, I am encouraged by the leadership of ShoreRivers, the Eastern Shore Land Conservancy and Chesapeake Wildlife Heritage and the splendid work they are doing to restore and protect. Among other initiatives, they work with the farm community to filter runoff, create buffers and convert farmland to natural habitats. 

Nature’s gifts are expressed in many ways. Poets, lyricists, and, most especially visual artists enliven our understanding and imagination. One way to appreciate nature is to understand it the way a subsistence forager in Alaska must.  

After-note: It is not possible to assess the challenges to biodiversity and climate with a column or two. I have reached this point by pairing what I know through personal experience with what is projected or recommended by others. The next columns will be even more specific.

A healthy earth requires us to both comprehend our role and take action. As to comprehension, let me suggest: The Creation: An Appeal to Save Life on Earth, by E.O. Wilson.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Filed Under: Al Sikes Eco, Top Story Tagged With: Chesapeake Wildlife Heritage, conservation, Eastern Shore Land Conservancy, global warming, Shorerivers

Is America’s Leadership Optional? By Al Sikes

December 30, 2019 by Al Sikes

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We have lost confidence in ourselves as America. Our collective expression is no longer government; it is politics—often hard-edged. We are too often marginalized as a national expression by a collection of very well organized and clever single interest groups. Life is simple for them; complex for us.

John F. Kennedy’s rallying cry — “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country” is only faintly remembered. President Reagan’s call for the Soviets to “tear down this wall” (separating East and West Berlin) might well apply to today’s politics. 

America ended the 20th Century prosperous. We had built and built and built, but too often we had taken the path of least resistance. And then twenty-one months into the new century we were attacked.

I remember, several hours after the twin towers fell to exploding planes, walking into Mt. Sinai hospital to give blood. There were so many of us wanting to give that the only type they would take was type O negative which is universally accepted.

America then fought two wars; well a few of us did. And to fight the wars we borrowed money. America was poised to sacrifice. Our political leadership decided to delegate our response to a few brave young men and women and bankers.

America has extraordinary strength; our political leadership is weak. And nowhere is this more apparent than in our response to the environmental threat of climate change—politics has overthrown science. 

In recent decades Americans have led in virtually every expression of personal industry and resolve, but have rarely come together to lead as a nation. Recall an earlier time.

On July 20, 1969, American astronauts Neil Armstrong and Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin became the first humans ever to land on the moon. As he took his first step, Armstrong famously said, “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” Armstrong’s expression became inspirational; when we faced challenges it was often said “if we can land on the moon we can ___________”.

It is increasingly clear, in small and large ways that our collective attention and strength need to focus on the space between the moon and earth – specifically the atmosphere. And, if you just dropped into this series on environmental damage, I would invite you to read the columns beginning with “The Issue of Our Times.”

To begin, America needs a President who believes the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). We have expended a sizable amount of our national treasure on understanding space – to reject its clear findings on climate change is, to say the least, irresponsible.

Our national leadership, understanding the enormous power of economic incentives, needs to focus a part of our capitalist mind on reducing C02 in the atmosphere. There is a coherent set of options that will in the long run strengthen us both environmentally and economically. If we lead the world, our enterprise and technology will create vast new opportunities. Efficacy of response is the overarching question; it will be determined if we can generate the same resolve that led us to the moon. 

And our leadership, with the diplomatic respect demanded of international engagement, must help lead globally. I am all in favor of fair trade with China and India, but we also need to work toward environmental reciprocity. If improving the air and water and climate globally is too big a challenge for a would-be President, he or she shouldn’t occupy the White House. And, to risk the obvious, we can’t lead internationally if we don’t understand what we need to do in our backyard.

I was struck by the author, Sebastian Junger’s lament in his book, Tribe: “How do you become an adult in a society that doesn’t ask for sacrifice?” We, Americans, need to comprehend our role and lead. What we buy, what we drive, how we produce and so much more impinge on nature’s infrastructure. Tens of millions of small steps day-by-day can make an extraordinary difference.

Let me end by drawing on the universal language, music. Tempo, rhythm and harmony are essential elements. Yet, it is often said that the lyrics make the song. In truth the music and lyrics must work together. And so it is with concerted action. Are there any good songwriters working the political beat? 

Even the phrase “climate change” sends a variety of verbal warriors to their respective corners. Interests and conflicts swirl, producing very disagreeable music. We need outreach. We need a leader and then leaders who can inspire while working the halls of opinion – domestically and internationally – for end results. And, we need an upbeat tempo.

Will we be called on to sacrifice? Sure. Indeed one very understandable and public test will hinge on the word sacrifice. If none is called for, the plan will not work.

Now a final word; the politics of environmental stewardship is changing. The online publication Grist reports: “A new poll suggests that Republicans and Democrats between 18 and 38 might as well be in the same party. Any red-vs-blue difference between them “virtually disappears,” according to the survey from Ipsos and Newsy.”

Before this series of columns comes to a close, I will share some thoughts about how we, on a more individual level, can do more. But, unifying leadership will be crucially important – without it the weather’s temperature will inexorably increase and the political temperature will reach boiling.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Filed Under: Al Sikes Eco, Top Story

Too Often, Blinded By Inertia by Al Sikes

December 23, 2019 by Al Sikes

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Human re-shaping of our natural infrastructure has confronted us with existential issues. This column is one in a series that began with, The Issue of Our Time.

September 11, 2001, remains a searing event in my memory. My wife and I were living in Manhattan on that day and were intensely interested in investigations that followed. Who knew what? When? And, how diligent were the authorities in investigative follow-through?

An informal view that resonated with me concluded that it is hard, if not impossible; to prevent what cannot be imagined. Commandeering passenger planes and flying them into buildings seemed the stuff of movies. Intelligence officials and their elected bosses failed to process evidence of a potential attack to a timely and logical conclusion and preventive actions. 

The threats as a consequence of climate change face a similar obstacle. The threat is even more troubling as the attackers are us, 7.5 billions of us. Generations of actions have created the risks; yet, we are told that society must be reordered, now!

And, we all know the overriding incentive that leads to self-denial. We continue behaviors that are proven to be harmful because they give us pleasure.

I grew up several miles from a farm my grandparents owned. I know what “hoeing cotton” means. Farmhands, using hoes, chopped the weeds that were competing with the cotton plants. As I would ride with my Grandfather to the farm, rows of workers were evident as they, to use another long gone phrase, were “chopping cotton”. Given the time and costs associated with this labor intensive effort, “poor land” was not planted.

The unplanted spaces were in tree rows with grasses and bushy plant life on either side. Today it might be called a pollinator or wildlife corridor.

What displaced these labor intensive practices in agricultural were chemicals that kill plants, generational improvements in farm machinery and government subsidies; they combined to eliminate wildlife corridors. There was certainly not a plan of action to eliminate the bees and butterflies or to release more CO2 in the atmosphere, but there was a plan of action to scale-up to maximize profit. Scaling up is capital intensive and turned into an invitation for intense commercialization. Return on investment is the dominant principle.

As the farmers, now mostly corporate, were maximizing profit, so too were the chemical and machinery industries. Reshaping nature was not explicit and that is a part of the problem—the formula: all reward no risks. Commodity production was the goal—traditional farm economics and environmental risks were overwhelmed. 

Damming rivers also became an aggressive intrusion on nature’s balance during my lifetime. A cluster of special interests began an insistent campaign for more lakes. While flood control of river basins was said to be the reason, recreation was often the motivating force.  My Dad’s business had several hundred square feet devoted to fishing and hunting equipment. Bass Pro Shop’s retail stores today are thousands of square feet and its catalog is thicker than many dictionaries. 

Technology helped serve our pleasure with lower commodity prices and new ways to spend our discretionary dollars. We went along for the ride—only our out-of-pocket costs were influential. Environmental costs were mostly not considered. 

As earlier noted my wife and I live on a farm called Nature’s Reach and over several years we have given nature some help by re-creating wetlands, meadows and a tree grove. 

We also started beekeeping with several colonies of honey bees and have become fascinated by their activities. But, more important than our honey bees, are the thousands of pollinators that now make Nature’s Reach their home. I should add: our garden flourishes.

My point is not to extoll obsolete and labor-intensive farming or what we have done at Nature’s Reach, but simply to point out what big feet humans have and how nature responds. Unfortunately we, for our own comfort, have often chosen to be imperious Kings and Queens of nature, not stewards. 

Much of what we value we count. We know about our own dollars and cents and the news media tell us each day whether the stock market is up or down. But, if I asked about the comparative population of pollinators in say 1960 and 2018, a satisfactory answer could not be found. Indeed only scientists would even attempt an answer. Fortunately I do not need to rely on computer models; I can see the dramatic changes on my farm.

I use pollinators illustratively, because of my personal experiences. Much more importantly, pollinators are as essential as clean water and air. They are keystones of nature’s balance. Our failure to protect them is a systemic failure—likewise climate change.

As I wrap this up, let me return to the central narrative—humans make a huge difference and those who have an intense interest in continuing to do things without due regard for the environmental consequences are quite good as my Dad would say, at “selling us a bill of goods.”

We need to comprehend our role in damaging nature’s profound balance and take the lead both at home and globally to reverse damaging trends. 

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

 

Filed Under: Al Sikes Eco, Top Story

The Controversy Thickens by Al Sikes

December 16, 2019 by Al Sikes

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Human re-shaping of our natural infrastructure has confronted us with existential issues. This column is one in a series that began with, The Issue of Our Time.

Climate change! What am I to think? What should I do? How can a non-scientist navigate the claims and counter-claims? Scientists themselves argue about whether the threat we face should be called an emergency.

Regardless of what one thinks it is not too difficult to reach an unsettling conclusion—“what I do or don’t do is not going to really move the dial on the threats of climate change.” After all there are over 7.5 billion people on the earth and we are measuring atmospheric carbon in parts per million—global atmospheric carbon dioxide was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm in 2018.

As those data spin around in our heads, many I suspect feel a bit like Peggy Lee’s refrain in the song “Is That All There Is.” With an upbeat but bluesy inflection she sang, “If that’s all there are my friends, then let’s keep dancing, Let’s break out the booze and have a ball.” And that is the problem—how do you break down a massive challenge into constituent parts, answers, plans and motivations? Or for that matter even understand how the challenge might be met?

Denial is a not unexpected response. It is not a studied denial; it is a thoroughly human one. Climate projections, after all, result from scientific modeling, are fully understood by a miniscule number of humans and inevitably they too have their biases. 

Martin Weitzman, a Harvard professor specializing in environmental economics, died recently. In reflecting on his legacy, The Economist said he tried to avoid testifying in Washington because “how could an economist ever make a precise recommendation in such a complex world.”

So we ask, can computer models produce truth when we know that accuracy depends on who is in charge of the model—the inputs and the analytics?

If those in charge of the model are perceived to have ulterior motives, there is a breakdown of trust. And truth and trust have an inescapable relationship. The one, trust, produces confidence in the other. Untrustworthy sources have difficulty delivering truth—real or perceived. If I were a climate scientist invited to testify before a Congressional Committee I would ask that the invitation come from the Committee leaders of both Parties.

And then you get to the hypocrisy of climate change advocates flying here and there urging people, who just get by, to pay much more for their gas to discourage the use of fossil fuels. Or, coming up with a political package that will cost trillions of dollars. It is no wonder that candidate Trump found it easy to campaign against the forces that want to take your car away or your hamburger or whatever.

It is why Emanuel Macron’s, France’s president, recommended tax on gasoline stoked the anger of the yellow jackets that brought Paris to its knees. Today the most oft cited reason for the mass demonstrations that have blossomed like the daffodils of spring is the forced increase in transportation costs.

The question is what can be done to bring the two in harmony? Can bold action to disrupt climate change align with the imperatives of politics? One thing is clear to me: if the advocates preach Armageddon unless we are carbon free by some relatively early date not enough will be accomplished.

Inevitably, claims of truth that foreshadow unwanted consequences carry a much higher burden of proof. And, as those who see themselves as the truth-tellers take on a messianic intensity, opposition becomes tribal. It’s my tribe’s story against your side’s version—the hell with truth.

In the weeks ahead I will weigh in on the toxic misalignment between climate and political sciences. Climate science often speaks the language of absolutes; political science deals with the art of the possible. Can they be aligned?

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

Don’t miss the latest! You can subscribe to The Chestertown Spy‘s free Daily Intelligence Report here. 

 

Filed Under: Al Sikes Eco, Top Story Tagged With: Al Sikes, local news, The Talbot Spy

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