Almost immediately after Governor Wes Moore was elected in 2022, political pundits in Maryland and beyond proclaimed Moore is destined to be a President of the United States.
Moore, in turn, is doing what one would expect from a potential future presidential candidate.
He supported President Joe Biden for re-election until Biden pulled out of the race. He then threw his support to Vice President Harris. He traveled regularly to speak on her behalf. He gave a prime-time speech at the Democratic National Convention. He helped Democratic Senator-Elect Angela Alsobrooks defeat Larry Hogan in a race previously deemed critical to Democratic Party efforts to retain control of the U.S. Senate.
All these efforts may be overcome by events in Annapolis next year when the General Assembly is back in session. Prior to adjourning, they must approve a state budget and send it to Governor Moore. Before that happens, the General Assembly will again engage in dialogue, deliberations, and decisions on unfinished business from the last session on state spending and tax increases.
Last session, a compromise was eventually reached on select tax increases, select fee increases, spending cuts, more state borrowing, and drawdowns from the state’s “rainy day” fund.
This compromise was approved over strong objections of progressive legislators who viewed this outcome as a temporary deal and a short term delay on future decisions to reject spending cuts and approve tax increases.
Progressives maintain tax increases are essential for full funding of the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future (the Kirwan Plan) and for a mass transit system extension in Baltimore.
As often happens in the General Assembly when state spending and tax increases are debated, those debates are overcome by events.
Next year this will be especially true given a recent bleak report from the General Assembly’s independent Department of Legislative Services.
That report projects that Maryland is heading into a severe fiscal crisis that could be the worst in twenty years. The report projects a gap between state tax revenues and state spending that is more significant than the outlook the state faced during the Great Recession in 2008- 2009.
Budget analysts suggest full funding for the Kirwan Plan is by far the biggest driver of the state’s long-term budget problems. They note that starting in the 2028 fiscal year, about $2 billion for Kirwan needs are unfunded, a figure that grows to $3.2 billion in the 2030 fiscal year.
Complicating matters further is uncertainty about how much and when Maryland will get federal funds to replace the former Key Bridge in Baltimore.
Whatever the General Assembly does on the spending budget and taxes, Governor Moore will have a major and highly visible role starting with submitting a proposed state budget in January. Following General Assembly approval of a budget bill, Moore can agree to it, make line-item vetoes, or veto the entire bill. The General Assembly can in turn override those vetoes.
I predict another contentious General Assembly session as there are still deep divides on budget priorities and tax increases between Governor Moore and the Democratic legislative leaders and progressive Democratic legislators who want tax increases now and who are increasingly unwilling to take no for answer.
Resolving these differences will be even more challenging with a President and Congress planning on significant cuts in federal spending and federal jobs. Both plans will reduce historical levels of federal monies coming into Maryland.
Last week, a Baltimore media outlet published a response from the Governor’s office on two questions – Should Marylanders anticipate any taxor fee increases in the coming years? Does Governor Moore plan to make any major spending cuts and if so where they might be?
His office responded with this written statement: The budgetary challenges that Maryland faces are as tough as they’ve ever been, and while the challenges have been years in the making, Governor Moore is committed to continuing to work in collaboration with the dedicated leaders of the state legislature, including Senate President Ferguson and Speaker Jones to fix them. The Moore-Miller Administration has a high bar for increasing the tax burden on Maryland families, and the governor knows the next leg of the mission to address our fiscal challenges will be harder than the last. We will continue the work of prioritizing our expenses and reviewing our revenue model to determine how it aligns with our objectives. Marylanders have come to expect fiscal responsibility from the Moore-Miller Administration and the governor will continue to move forward into the next session with that at the top of his mind.
These are his words now. The question is, what will his actions be next year and beyond?
I suggest voters should be ever mindful of an answer by Richard Nixon’s presidential campaign manager after Nixon’s election in 1972. When asked what to expect from the Nixon administration he replied, “Watch what we do, not what we say.”
If voters do so that could be problematic for Governor Moore in pursuit of a presidential bid.
Democratic primary voters may not embrace a Democratic candidate they see with a record of blocking or limiting progressive policy initiatives and higher taxes to pay for them. At the same time, general election voters may not embrace a Democratic candidate they see with a record of supporting progressive policy initiatives and higher taxes to pay for them.
In either case, voters may make voting decisions after deciding if what Governor Moore said on his intended actions on government spending and tax increases matches what he actually did.
David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant in Easton.
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