Loss of Power by Al Sikes

Fact: President Joe Biden has all the appearances of a lame duck. When a person of authority is unlikely to succeed himself there is a palpable loss of power.

Unless. The perception and hopefully the reality of a continuation of a strong Alliance compensates for the status of its leading figure. In capability, the United States is the leading member of the Alliance, that is, with Ukraine, fighting Russia. What we now need is an assertion from Former President Donald Trump that the U.S. will remain a stalwart member of the Alliance. A failure to do that will weaken Trump if he is president again.

The Alliance operationally is the Ukraine Contact Group (It is called the Ramstein Group because it meets at the U.S. Ramstein Air Force base in Germany) and it contains 57 member nations. The Group currently is led by the United States. The documented support of this Alliance assures that Ukraine will ultimately have a strong position at the negotiating table.

In every foreign conflict there are first and last years—provocation and settlement. The first year of the Alliance for a free Ukraine is, of course, long past. Knowing what we now know should we have engaged? My view, an unalterable yes. Regardless, we are engaged and the Congressional leaders of both Parties have been supportive.

The resulting war has seriously weakened Russia. It lost the semi-neutrality it had with Finland and Sweden. Russia borders Finland for 833 miles, now 833 miles with the NATO alliance.

It has dissipated wealth and talent as a large number of its most talented left Russia early in the war. It has also dissipated whatever goodwill might have existed in Ukraine for the Russians. And now its only unqualified supporters overseas tend to be North Korea and Iran. They are principally motivated by a hatred of our country. Neither provide Russia strong trade partnerships.

Imagine: The Ramstein Group of 57 nations is in one way or another fighting Russia, Iran and North Korea (active Russians allies). Relatedly the stronger the Ramstein Group, the more wary the Chinese about accelerating its support for Russia or invading Taiwan.

But, back to the first and last. America’s strength abroad and its internal strength for international alliances received a serious set back as the Afghanistan war resulted in an embarrassing retreat. We left and the Taliban took over. As the Ukraine war enters the third year we must have a tight understanding of what victory is. Eventually, Ukraine and its allies will get out of the war. Hopefully the end will be a favorable boundary map for Ukraine along with a positive trajectory toward membership in NATO.

Donald Trump knows how to conduct successful negotiations. His business career assured that at any given point he was involved in some sort of buy or sell negotiation. We are told that he was “a tough customer”. And he knows, but probably won’t admit, that a loss to Russia will cause severe friction in NATO and weaken the Alliance for the next time around. And there will be a next time around and especially if the Ramstein Group and Ukraine together fold.

Recall Kenny Rogers’ admonition to the young gambler “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em—Know when to fold ‘em—Know when to walk away”. In war the strong do not walk away. The strong make sure the last year is worthy of the first.

Fact Checking

Article after article regarding last week’s debate mentioned the need for fact checkers and a somewhat instantaneous posting. Presumably by the debate host.

Fact checking is important, but my sense of a gifted debater is that he/she know the facts so the pushback can be immediate. Most of the questions and their contexts can be anticipated; the debaters need to be able to correct the record. While the media can fact check over the next few hours; the debaters need to do it with confidence at the time.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.