It is now clear. What is thought to be the Donald Trump movement is largely an “I’m not going to take it anymore” rebellion. Trump, while not a cheese sandwich, is to some degree irrelevant but fortunate. His political timing enables his political success. Recall, he was expected to lose in 2016.
The ideological and political forces that make up the Far Left are largely spent, both literally and figuratively. Identity politics is its latest fashion.
To some degree, and the degree is elusive, it is not clear whether Trump helps or hurts the rebellious cause. I believe he hurts it. There is a considerable volume of Center-Right voters who will not vote for him.
People who write and edit legacy media throw around the phrase “Far Right” as an epithet. Rarely do we encounter the phrase “Far Left.” And since “Far Right” branding is thought to be injurious to conservative candidates, all but Centrists are said to be “Far Right”.
Current branding is easy to find in European politics. While most people in America do not pay much attention to European politics, the “Far Right” (as it is called) is doing so well electorally that some commentators on the Left feel compelled to warn of incipient Nazism. If every far-left movement recalled Stalin, that would at least even the score. But certainly if there is evidence of Nazism the harshest light should target it.
Europe is now deep in a political cycle with America not far behind. In America, if the nomination to be the Democrat nominee was still open I suspect Democrats would be trying to find their Center. But they have decided to stand pat. Warning: four years ago Biden seemed to have some Centrist credentials; not anymore.
So what is the fuel for a resurgent move to the Right? My headline words are: Immigration, Inflation, Gender and Abortion. I’ll repeat one word: Immigration.
Historically, there has been an underlying assumption that the United States government controlled its borders with other countries and that newly arriving immigrants would go through a step-by-step qualifying procedure. Most voters now assume we have lost control and that the loss is dangerous. Biden and Kamala Harris are perceived to be at fault. If you have the top jobs, the burden of disruption is yours. Shouldering the burden requires timely and effective action.
Moving on, people have assumed gender continuity to the extent it has been thought about at all. But, let me be specific, the razor edge in politics refers to gender fluidity, men transitioning to women and competing in women’s sports has led to outrage. The upcoming Olympics will keep this story topical. And many are also startled and angry that surgical procedures are being used at relatively early ages to affirm a youth’s perception of his/her sex.
Next, the reversal of Roe v Wade brought abortion back to the front page. Inevitably it also caused politics in religion to spike. This development bites. Trump, notwithstanding conduct the church would presumably find abhorrent, finds himself favored by a majority of those who wear comfortably the Evangelical Christian designation. Trump is perceived to be more pro-life than Biden and is aided by the Left pulling Biden toward the extreme—the right to an abortion just before delivery.
Inflation. This is a non-partisan issue. Steep price increases hurt whoever occupies the White House. And control of inflation is not ripe for quick solutions as its underlying forces are not easy to influence, much less control.
As noted, Trump is the beneficiary of much of the societal angst. Biden, well he is a bit like a kite. When the winds are conflicting he seems weak.
Afghanistan was particularly harmful. The wind favored a withdrawal but no one favored withdrawal at any cost and that is what we got. It was indelibly attached to our brain by excruciating images. The damaging images cannot be reversed. I suspect we will see them over and over in political advertising.
The other irreversible issue is age. Biden’s age and infirmities are easily assessed. We all assess the drag age has in our own lives. And the more youthful voters see this as they look at the older generations in their own families.
So here is the wager. Democrats seem to be wagering that Trump’s immorality will result in his defeat. I wouldn’t bet the house on that outcome. A strong wind is in charge, not weak candidates.
Recollection
Pardon this short aside provoked by recalling the early 1980s and tax reform.
The next successful convergence of ideas needs to confront our financial mess—national revenues way behind costs. The convergence must provide new sources of revenue and not on the back of American workers. Perhaps the challenge will draw leaders from both political parties as happened when Jack Kemp (R) worked successfully with Bill Bradley (D) and Dick Gephardt (D) on tax reform.
These Members were not post-partisan. All three ran for President. I believe the two athletes recognized that some degree of team play was essential to victory. And, so my younger readers do not have to go to Wikipedia—Jack Kemp was for many years the successful quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and Bill Bradley was an All-Star forward for the New York Knicks.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
James Nick says
Ok, let’s talk about the insurgent rocket fuel.
Immigration
From https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/asylum-united-states…
“Asylum is a protection grantable to foreign nationals already in the United States or arriving at the border who meet the international law definition of a ‘refugee.’ The United Nations 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol define a refugee as a person who is unable or unwilling to return to his or her home country, and cannot obtain protection in that country, due to past persecution or a well-founded fear of being persecuted in the future ‘on account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.’ Congress incorporated this definition into U.S. immigration law in the Refugee Act of 1980… As a signatory to the 1967 Protocol, and through enacted U.S. immigration law, the United States has legal obligations to provide protection to those who qualify as refugees.”
So right off the bat, this country has laws in effect that say we are obligated to accept refugees seeking asylum. The laws make no reference to numbers or country of origin. So when the party of trump rails against accepting refugees seeking asylum they are proposing that we violate our own laws.
But most everyone agrees that our 40 y/o asylum laws do not match the reality of what’s happening today. They are incapable of dealing with the industrial-scale of both illegal immigration and legitimate asylum seekers. There are well in excess of 100 million people around the world that are displaced because of war, famine, poverty, and environmental collapse due to climate change. Combine that with the human traffickers that are moving people across our southern border using the same effective means and methods they developed to smuggle drugs and we have a situation for which our laws and immigration infrastructure were never designed. We’re in a gun fight and our current laws only give us a knife (if even) to fight back.
So why doesn’t congress act? The reason our immigration laws have not been updated is because each party uses them to beat up the other. This has been going on for decades and always peaks in election years. The party of trump sees illegal immigration as a winning issue for them. This was forcefully driven home last February when, egged on by trump, the House killed a bipartisan bill that would have addressed many of the funding and structural issues in our immigration system. Or, saying the quiet part out loud, Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) told CNN at the time “I will not help the Democrats try to improve [Biden’s] dismal approval ratings. I’m not going to do it. Why would I?” This is naked, unadorned, and undisguised party politics over country in its most bare-knuckle form. Our emotions are being manipulated by Machiavellian connivers and political bottom feeders.
Gender Identity
In March, 2024, Statista reported that in a recent survey conducted among Americans, 7.6% of respondents identified themselves as part of the LGBT community and in June, USAfacts.org, found that about 1.14% of the nation’s adult population identifies as transgender. And in April, 2023 Newsweek quoted a researcher and physician as saying that “While we don’t know the exact number of trans women (because of privacy laws) competing in NCAA sports, I would be very surprised if there were more than 100 of them in the women’s category”.
Are people really going to make a voting decision of who will be the Commander in Chief on the basis of gender continuity and gender identity??? How is it that such an infinitesimal number of people is creating so much angst and brouhaha? Who cares? Why does it bother so many people?
Once again, we’re being manipulated by, yes, The Right (the modifier “Far” is now redundant). The fact is, it’s not about LGBTQ rights at all, is it? It’s about Evangelical Christian zealots who somehow have decided that they, and they alone, get to set the moral tenor of this country and will pick any social scab they think that will put people on the razor’s edge as Mr Sikes so notes.
Ditto for abortion. Except here Mr Sikes does his level best to stoke the rage by citing the lie and purposely emotional trope that the Left wants to permit abortion right up to delivery. Does anyone really think that a woman who has carried a pregnancy for 9 months suddenly wakes up some day and spontaneously decides to abort a perfectly healthy fetus for some bizarre reason? There’s not an ethical physician, nurse, nor medical institution in this country that would aid and abet that woman. If/when that happens it’s because something has gone terribly wrong and the mother’s life is in imminent mortal danger.
Finally, let’s talk inflation. The party of trump is notorious for their selective amnesia. Think about what has and is happening around the world. In no particular order, without a doubt the biggest driver of inflation was the pandemic and the sudden reopening of the economy that stripped the gears of the worldwide economy. And that is still with us to some extent. Russia invaded Ukraine disrupting prices on the global oil market as well as global grain supplies. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have shut off all commercial shipping through the Red Sea forcing all shipborne traffic to travel an extra 11,000 miles adding costs. Drought in Panama has also reduced shipping through the Panama Canal with the same consequences. Drought is also causing coffee and chocolate prices to spike. Bird flu has wiped out millions of flocks of chickens and turkeys driving up prices on poultry and eggs and everything made from them. Home construction and other industries are still reeling from pandemic supply chain and labor disruptions. Then there is just plain old greedflation caused by opportunistic price gouging going on with many consumer products. And finally, there’s nothing like an active and expanding war in the Middle East to rile the markets.
It’s a wonder inflation is as low as it is. But even if this doesn’t give you pause, ponder this: What’s tump’s plan to lower inflation? Go ahead, try to find one… I’ll wait.