Election Day 2024 is now less than six months away. Nobody I know is saying, “we’ve seen it all,” because if we have learned anything from the last six months it is in politics, expect the unexpected.
No political pundits predicted that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would run for president, drop his affiliation with the Democratic Party, and disclose that a worm ate part of his brain. Pundits now are analyzing which voters support Mr. Kennedy and whether his candidacy will hurt Trump or Biden more. A prominent Kennedy family member recently summed up RFK, Jr.’s contribution to American politics by calling him an a*shole.
Most of my friends who follow politics closely did not expect Joe Biden to seek a second term. Given his age, we figured, why would he want the stress? My contacts that disagreed were all people who had either worked with Biden in the Senate or during the Obama years or who otherwise know him beyond what is written in the newspaper.
Biden’s decision created one of the biggest uncertainties of 2024—whether he will stay healthy enough to campaign through election day. Biden’s decision has also forced Democrats to shelve concerns most of them have about Biden’s vice president. Although most Democrats will not say it, the assumption is that if Biden wins, Ms. Harris will be president before Election Day 2028.
Then we come to Trump. Who expected four indictments with dozens of felony charges? Who expected Trump’s supporters to shrug off the indictments and, in truly troubling behavior, support him more fiercely than they would if he were a saint?
Trump is showing the effects of the stress of endless legal problems and financial challenges resulting from judgments against him in the New York business fraud and E. Jean Carroll defamation cases. His problems will only get worse. Trump may even have to mark-up his Bibles or issue more NFTs.
The Grateful Dead used to sing, “What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been.” I am singing, “What a Long Strange Trip It Will Be.”
I expect events in the next six months to eclipse those of the last six in terms of weirdness. This worries me. As Joe Biden says, “Democracy is at stake in this election.” But that is not all to worry about. The Constitution might not survive into 2025 if Trump loses the election and mobilizes what could be a waiting army of brown-shirted thugs.
I confess to being most worried about Trump, but there is plenty of uncertainty to go around. Here are some things I worry about that, likely, would-be surprises.
An eruption of a regional war in Gaza and Israel. Netanyahu is the equivalent of a drunk flying a Boeing 737MAX. Israel is our ally, but Netanyahu is prompting a reassessment. Some now conclude that America’s unrestrained support for Israel is a mistake that is costing America its credibility in the world.
Joe Biden has had the misfortune of serving as president as this crisis continues to evolve. He did not put Netanyahu in office or have anything to do with the October 7 attacks, but he is now accused of aiding and abetting genocide.
Biden is already a historically unpopular president. The Middle East could cost him the election.
Turning to Trump, one worry is that he, rather than Biden, will have a health crisis. He is already showing signs of mental instability. Did you hear or read about his comments about Hannibal Lecter? Trump is getting crazier. What happens if Trump crashes—falls apart by becoming incapacitated—what happens to his MAGA movement?
We also must worry about the possibility of Trump supporters attempting to disrupt the election before it takes place. One way to get people not to vote is to instill fear in them.
Not all the uncertainties of the next six months involve the candidates. The economy is the biggest wildcard. There is also the possibility of the Supreme Court issuing a decision that mobilizes one side or the other. And what if Putin wins in Ukraine? Will voters blame Biden (unfairly, probably yes) or the Republicans who blocked aid for more than six months?
More surprises are in store. I am writing this on Tuesday morning, May 14. I just learned that House Speaker Mike Johnson and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum will attend Trump’s hush money trial today. I am sorry Johnson was not in the audience for Stormy Daniels’ testimony. I have not seen Speaker Johnson blush. That would be a surprise, but in 2024, maybe not.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and all too infrequently, other subjects.
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