Will America’s Role as the Post World War II World Leader Pass to China? By David Reel

Tom Blair, a former Eastern Shore resident who shared imaginative and amusing displays on his estate on St. Michaels Road between Easton and St. Michaels also wrote a New York Times bestselling book — Poorer Richard’s America — What would Ben Say?

His book is based on Poor Richard’s Almanack, a widely read annual publication written between 1732 and 1758 by American patriot, diplomat, and prolific inventor Ben Franklin.

In his book, Blair artfully blends a ‘what if’ scenario of Ben Franklin traveling through time to offer his observations on America today along with Blair’s personal observations on the same.

There are chapters on such issues as federal budget deficits, democracy, political parties, leadership, the Bill of Rights, foreign affairs, America’s greatest generation, Keynesian economics, health care, and many others.

One very timely chapter is “The Rise and Fall of Nations.”

In it, Blair recaps a hypothetical conversation between an American scholar and a professor at Cambridge University on Charles Darwin’s theory on natural selection on the evolution of animal and plant species.

In Blair’s recap of that conversation, the Cambridge professor maintains, as have others, that natural selection applies to civilizations, societies, and nations as well as animal and plant species.

Accordingly, civilizations, societies, and nations also rise and then fall as the fittest become less fit and others become more fit.

The reasoning put forth by the Cambridge professor is the fitness level of civilizations, societies, and nations are impacted greatly by changes in the speed of commerce. The speed of those changes increases continuously over time. Such increases must be met with a commitment by a dominant civilization, society, and nation to develop and use technology to maintain its position.

Failure to do so will inevitably lead to the rise of another dominant civilization, society, and nation.

That view is affirmed with a review of the 16th and 17th centuries when Spain was the dominant global power. Spain chose not to apply their wealth to technology to expand their power further but to enjoy a “good life.” As a result, Spain entered a period of steady and permanent decline.

During Spain’s decline, Britain built a navy using steam-powered ships rather than wind-powered ships as used by Spain.

As Spain became less fit, Britain became more fit and became the largest empire in history. When Britain eventually controlled roughly a quarter of the earth’s land mass, it was said the sun never set on the British Empire.

After World War II, Britain was exhausted from years of enduring relentless German bombings, preparing for a German invasion that almost occurred and demands for freedom from a large number of their colonies.

As a result, Britain replicated Spain’s steady and permanent decline as the world’s dominant nation.

America replaced them and has held that role ever since.

Blair suggests America may be the next dominant nation to be replaced.

He further suggests the new dominant nation in the world may be China.

Blair writes that China astutely watched the decades-long cold war superpower arms race between America and the former Soviet Union.

In that decades long war, America and the former Soviet Union spent enormous amounts of resources on defense spending. That led to widespread economic turmoil in the former Soviet Union that ultimately led to their complete economic restructuring and an end to a cold war without a hot war between the two superpowers.

While exact levels of defense spending by China are difficult to determine, experts estimate China’s defense spending has been and is approximately one third the levels of America’s defense spending.

China shrewdly decided their strategy would not be to try and position themselves as the preeminent military power in the world. Instead, their strategy has been to be the preeminent economic power in the world by developing (and in many cases stealing from America) the most innovative technologies in the world.

So far, they have been largely successful.

Blair ends his book with a warning: “America is peering in the wrong direction to see its greatest challenges; it is playing the wrong game.”

Left unanswered in Blair’s book is whether the American public and America’s government leaders will acknowledge this grim reality.

If they do, another unanswered question is whether they will take necessary steps to avoid passing the role of world leadership to China before it is too late.

David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant who lives in Easton.