America celebrated another birthday last week, but as I watched the fireworks I wondered, is this the next to last one? I sense our political system may be at a breaking point. If the 2024 election proves to be the disaster it is shaping up to be, our constitutional democracy might not be around on July 4, 2025.
The leading 2024 presidential candidates from each party are individuals who a majority of us do not want to run. One is widely seen as too old to run. The other does not support democracy and is well on his way to being a convicted felon. The election of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump could throw the country into a political crisis that could become the day American democracy died.
Joe Biden, of course is a friend of democracy. The problem with his election is that he might not survive another four years in office. His death or incapacity could trigger another Trump attempt to seize power by force, especially if the incredibly unpopular Kamala Harris becomes president.
The problem of a Trump win in 2024 is that Trump is already promising to “take our country back,” and deliver retribution to the “thugs” who are prosecuting him. Plus, he evidences increasing signs of decline if not outright insanity.
Trump is also too old to run for president—we just do not talk about it because there are so many other reasons why his 2024 candidacy is a threat to our future. He will be 78 years old on election day 2024.
So, are we doomed or is there a way out of the pending crisis? No and yes. We will be fine if both candidates drop their candidacies. For now, that looks unlikely, but it could and should happen.
I have a theory that Joe Biden’s decision to seek a second term resulted from his conclusion that Trump remains a potent political force and could regain the White House. Biden mistakenly believes that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump. After all, he did it before. Biden may also believe that if he were not running, the Democratic party would erupt into a slugfest between moderates and progressives that would facilitate Trump winning the election.
Biden could be right about the risk of a brutal Democratic party primary season, but he does not seem to understand how unpopular he is becoming. Every time the President misspeaks, stumbles on a stage, or appears tired, more voters conclude not only that he is too old to run for president, but that he is not functioning as president today.
What could prompt Biden to rethink his decision to seek a second term? The answer is if Trump either dropped out of the race or is defeated in the Republican primaries.
To date, Trump is holding onto his base. I find it difficult to believe that anyone thinks Trump is “perfectly innocent” or is willing to take the risk of a convicted felon being elected president. Yet the numbers, so far, do not lie.
Trump is not invulnerable. Last weekend I watched the video of Trump’s speech in Council Bluffs, Iowa. It was pathetic. Trump rallied Iowans by suggesting that Democrats seek to destroy Iowa by promoting electric cars (which do not need ethanol). He also focused on “the border” and, after calling Democrats “either evil or stupid” for promoting an open border, told the audience how he pressured Mexico into placing 28,000 troops on the border to stop illegal immigration.
The speech, which included a reference to America going to hell, a claim that Biden is the most corrupt president in history, and that he would fix everything, was reminiscent of a Hitler speech from the 1930s. Trump uses fear and promotes hate to convince voters to support him.
Somehow, somewhere, somebody needs to take Trump down. The justice system may do it, but Trump can also be defeated if the Republican party finally rejects him.
Could former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie be the candidate who makes that happen—the candidate who finally makes Republicans see Trump as the toxic cancer that he is?
In recent weeks I have been encouraged—let me say excited—by Christie’s willingness to call Trump out. Christie has been outspoken in saying that it is time for Republicans to take a stand against Trump and recognize that he is the narcissistic grifter who tried to retain the presidency by force and lies in 2021.
The first GOP presidential debate is scheduled for August 23rd. Governor Christie will qualify for it by securing the requisite number of campaign donors. Will Trump participate? Given his congenital over-confidence, Trump might be persuaded to say yes. Christie expects Trump to be there and is looking forward to the chance to battle Trump directly.
If Chris Christie exposes Trump in a way that has not happened to date, Trump could decide to drop out of the race. That might clear the way for President Biden to change his mind about running in 2024. If that happens, we might get a younger, more energetic Democrat as the party’s nominee, and America might get to celebrate another birthday in 2025.
Naïve? Maybe, but there has to be a way out of this mess. I refuse to quit looking for it.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, and other subjects.
Tom Timberman says
A very nice piece of analysis, but one key topic was avoided. Who would the Dem candidate be if President Biden dropped out? I’m also underwhelmed by the potential for Christie to sink Trump. And the idea that the latter would choose to withdraw in the face of stinging assaults by Christie, is hard to imagine. It wasn’t that long ago, the former NJ governor was pandering to and praising his current target. However, maybe the fact no cabinet position was offered,nor was he put in charge of the transition or the inauguration or whatever, probably set him on his current path to trash Trump (totally appropriate, but still…).
Tom Timberman
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece and for your comment. A lot of people like Christie’s combativeness but wouldn’t vote for him. It remains to be seen if he can get under Trump’s skin.
In terms of who the Democratic nominee could be other than Biden, I would mention Newsom, Whitmer, Klobuchar, Booker, and a few others. I think its too early to talk about Wes Moore, but he is showing great promise.
Bill Anderson says
Mr. Dean, I agree that there is a “way out of this mess”, if only a popular democrat would primary president Biden. Mr. Biden would discover exactly how unpopular he has made himself. Of course, Mr. Trump may be in a similar situation as a result of a popular republican gaining nominee status through a successful primary season.
It is my opinion that the United States of America does not need Joseph R. Biden, Jr. as its president resulting from the 2024 general election, and most assuredly does not need or deserve the incompetent VP Kamala Harris. The citizens deserve a highly capable elected person in the Oval Office.
John Dean says
Thank you for your comment. I believe Biden has done a good job but worry about his ability to serve four more years, starting in 2025. I keep hoping for Harris to show some growth, but, thus far, I don’t see it.
I agree that in this troubled times we need a highly capable president.
Gren Whitman says
Mr, Dean, with respect, few if any are looking to you to find “a way out of this mess.”
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece. Respectfully, I think you may have misunderstood my comment that I refuse to quit looking for a way out of the mess. I wasn’t suggesting that anyone look to me to find a way out. I was suggesting that, somehow, the country needs to find a way out of the mess of a Biden-Trump rematch.
Clark Bjorke says
I have seen no evidence that”most of us” do not want Biden to run for a second term, or that Kamala Harris is “wildly unpopular.” These ideas are more disinformation generated by the right wing spin machine. Biden is indeed old, but he is also incredibly capable. He has managed to get a number of important measures through a hostile House of Representatives and he has helped guide our economy through rocky times. Remember the recession that never happened? Also more right wing spin.
My hope is that Biden will run and win again next year and that the Dems will take back the majority in the house. The Republican party must get a grip on reality before they can be trusted to govern. At this time they are in the grip of a madman.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece and for commenting. I particularly liked your last two sentences.
There are a number of polls indicating that a majority of voters would prefer Biden not to run. See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/04/21/most-democrats-dont-want-biden-to-run-again-poll-finds-but-theyll-probably-vote-for-him-anyway/?sh=508b789d7e0d.
Other polls document Harris’ unpopularity. See: https://nypost.com/2023/06/26/harriss-favorability-sinks-to-lowest-in-polls-history-of-vps/.
Please know that if Biden does run, I plan to vote for him. I agree that he has done a good job as president. He is just too old, in my view. And VP Harris has yet to show me qualities that I would like to see in a president.
James Nick says
When it comes to President Biden’s age, Mr Dean is now like a dog with a bone. It has become a continuing theme in most all of his commentary. In general, his obsession has now become repetitive and tiresome except this time Mr Dean raises the specter that Mr Biden “might not survive another four years in office”.
In prior responses to this theme, it has been pointed out that if age alone is used as an indicator of being the cusp of checking out then so are many, many others in our political class[1]. It should also be noted that this extends across the whole of our society. For example, Warren Buffett (92), his Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger (99), and the Rolling Stones, Jagger (79), Richards (79), and Woods (76) seem to be hitting on all cylinders. Yet Mr Dean would seemingly advise them to stand down and get their affairs in order, pronto.
I look forward to Mr Dean stopping with the age “Thing”. I would agree that there ought to be age and term limits for all three branches of our government for many reasons, but unless and until that comes to pass, this is the way it is. Let it go.
The other theme sounded by Mr Dean is about how unpopular President Biden and VP Kamala Harris are becoming. The problem here is that Mr Dean’s assertive declaration is totally out of context. Consider the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings for the following political leaders: Biden 39/54, trump 39/56, DeSantis 38/45, Harris 37/53, McCarthy 36/39, Jefferies 27/28, Schumer 28/39, and McConnell 19/55 [2]. President Biden and trump are virtually tied and DeSantis, often considered the Mini-Me trump, is even worse especially on his unfavorables. This phenomenon extends to all of Congress as well where a whoppong 77% of people disapprove and only 20% approve of the job they are doing[3]
The fact is, in the age of online social media, right-wing cable TV, talk radio, and viral crackpot conspiracy theories, no one, and I mean literally, No One, in our fragmented day and age will probably ever achieve a favorable approval rating. Ever since the Citizens United ruling, there is now virtually unlimited dark money available to subvert, sabotage, and weaken all political opponents in the eyes of the electorate. Approval ratings have lost all meaning.
1. https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-118th-congress
2. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/other/FavorabilityRatingsPoliticalLeaders.html
3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/207579/public-approval-rating-of-the-us-congress/