An early November opinion poll of the Eastern Shore’s 1st Congressional District finds voters trending to Republican candidates and sheds light on political divides. In contrast with statewide polling, likely Eastern Shore voters prefer Dan Cox (R) for Maryland governor over his opponent Wes Moore (D) by ten percentage points, 46% to 36%, in the race to succeed Republican Larry Hogan. The contest for the U.S. Senate seat held by Chris van Hollen (D) shows the incumbent trailing his opponent Chris Chaffe (R) by five percentage points 48% to 43%.
Andy Harris (R) holds a lead of seven percentage points, 45% to 38%, over his opponent Heather Mizeur (D) in the race to represent the district in the House of Representatives. The Ballot Initiative on a Maryland Constitutional Amendment to legalize the use of Cannabis has overwhelming support, with 74% of likely 1st district voters in favor, 21% in opposition, and only 4% undecided.
The poll, which has a +/-4% margin of error, also found that likely voters have the most trust in the Maryland State government with less trust local government and the least in the Federal government. Despite candidate Harris’s skepticism about the 2020 election, 79% of likely voters indicate they are confident in the Maryland electoral system.
The poll illustrates a partisan divide over what voters consider to be the most important issues facing the district. While more than 93% of Republicans view the economy, taxes and inflation as an important issue, only 59% of Democrats share that view. In contrast, over two-thirds of Democrats view racial and ethnic inequality, abortion access and restrictions and climate change and the environment to be important issues while less than a third of Republicans share this view.
The Eastern Shore Public Opinion Poll was conducted by Washington College Assistant Professor of Political Science Flavio Rogerio Hickel Jr. between October 28 and November 1. Hickel, who was recently named a 2022-23 Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) Public Fellow, is also an expert on voting trends within the Latinx community. He earned his Ph.D. from Rutgers University in 2016 and studies American political institutions, identity politics and public opinion.
In addition to understanding political attitudes among Eastern Shore voters, the survey polled residents to better understand how they engage civically through volunteer work, voter engagement, activism or philanthropy in an effort will provide reliable information regarding a range of citizen preferences to elected representatives, community leaders and the public.
Deirdre LaMotte says
Not surprising. All people care about inflation. The Democrats are doing something about it with the Inflation Reduction Ac, which no Republican supported. And the Trump $2.4 trillion tax cut was highlyinflationary; the whole America First policies were all inflationary.
Republicans “strong on crime”?? No, they just want people of color locked up but believe everyone should be able to open carry semi-automatic weapons. It is the Blue states suffering from the proliferation of handguns. But the GOP’s huge source of revenue is from the gun manufacturers. Our nation is one big OK Corral.
Robert B Taylor says
If, as reported elsewhere, this was done by sending a questionnaire to 1000 randomly selected voters, probably the result is based on a much lower number that responded so is certainly questionable. And the level of support for cannabis does not jive with that for Harris and Xox.
It would be interesting to have a breakdown by county as well as the number of respondents in each one.