Last Friday, I went into town for gas. I saw a sticker depicting President Joe Biden pointing to the spot where the price per gallon is displayed. Biden is saying “I did that!” A recent ABC/Ipsos poll suggests that most Americans agree. According to the poll, Biden currently has a 27 percent approval rating on how he is dealing with gas prices. His score for handing inflation is as bad at 28 percent.
Let’s be honest. It is unfair to put the blame for high gasoline prices solely on Joe Biden and the Democrats. There’s plenty of blame to go around, including Russia, greedy oil company executives, Donald Trump, Congress, and the pandemic. And if we want to play the blame game, we need to add ourselves to the list. If we bought less gasoline, the price would go down.
For many of us, gasoline is the most irritating manifestation of inflation, but it is only part of a pattern of rising prices. Long-term inflation, leading to a recession, seems likely. Simply put, indications are increasing that trouble is heading our way.
Consider a few recent comments by business and government leaders. Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase predicts an “economic hurricane.” Elon Musk predicts a recession and tells us, in true Musk fashion, that it will be a good thing. “Bankruptcies need to happen,” he tells us, which is easy for him to say.
More worrisome is Treasury Secretary Yellen admitting that she was wrong in her projections about inflation. Yellen believed inflation would be modest. Reports suggest that she advised President Biden to pare down his domestic spending proposals but was overruled by other administration advisors.
Worse yet, we have Fed Chairman Jay Powell and others at the Federal Reserve uncertain of how inflation can be brought under control. Powell predicts “pain” and says several factors that might trigger a recession are beyond the Fed’s control. That is not comforting.
All this suggests that we are on the cusp of a recession. I see one coming but, I am frequently surprised by encountering people who continue to believe that things will be back to normal by the end of the year. Among their explanations are that the supply chain issues are “straightening out;” that the Fed’s “quantitative tightening” will work; and that the war in Ukraine will end soon because “Putin is running out of tanks.”
When I hear this type of garbage, I smile, nod my head, and walk away knowing that I have just wasted my time. But when I reflect on all the explanations being offered for inflation, most of them in the form of blame, I realize that nobody has a handle on inflation.
If the Biden administration, the Fed, or anyone else manages to tame inflation, a modicum of luck will be involved. This is not to say that there aren’t things that can and should be done now. The Federal Reserve is doing the right thing to implement quantitative tightening. Republicans are doing the right thing to oppose massive new federal spending. Economists are right to suggest that too many people continue to voluntarily remain unemployed or underemployed.
Unfortunately, if new investments in infrastructure, education, healthcare, the military, and science are deferred, we all pay the price eventually. The pressing social needs that gave rise to last summer’s urban turmoil have not yet been met. More unrest is likely if it becomes clear that progress is being abandoned in the name of curing inflation.
What does all this mean for the 2022 midterm elections? Unfortunately, if the polls are right, people will blame Biden and Democrats for inflation and will punish them by voting for Republicans. That will further polarize politics, especially if people like Mehmet Oz, J.D. Vance, and Herschel Walker are sent to D.C.
I fear that if Republicans win in November, their focus will not be on taming inflation. It will be on impeaching Joe Biden, enacting tax cuts, and pursuing nonsense like “banning” Critical Race Theory and blocking needed election reform laws to increase their odds of winning the presidency in 2024.
This means that in addition to the obvious pain of inflation, we may face other types of pain as the polarization of America continues. All this means it is important to avoid the blame game when talking about inflation. Instead of finding someone to blame, let’s work together to find impactful solutions.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, birds, and other subjects.
Peter L Woicke says
When I travel on Route 50 and go 65 miles in a 55 mile speed zone, simply everybody , gas consuming pick up trucks, old cars , new cars all pass me, lots going 75 and even more. Don’t people realize that if you stick to the speed limit you can save up to 30 % of gas? Seeing all these fast driving car, I keep wondering whether gas is really that expensive.
Stephen Schaare says
Peter, Yes, gas is really quite expensive. Tip of the iceberg. Mr. Dean mentions gas because he can twist , somehow, blaming Putin.
Everything is through the roof. Paper , pickles, all meats-everything.
Rising cost of diesel (very bad) makes all products more expensive.
Biden declared war on fossil fuels day one.
Steve
John Dean says
Steve: Please note that I said there was plenty of blame to go around. I would also note that President Biden did not “declare war on fossil fuels day one.” He declared war on climate change. Anyone who hopes the Eastern Shore will still exist in 100 years should support efforts to address climate change. Such efforts should include a movement to renewable energy resources.
John Dean says
Good point. I’ve wondered why people drive so fast knowing the impact on their fuel economy.
Thank you for reading the piece.
David Ani says
It’s nice that you shared your fear of a Republican future while denying inadequate policies and lack of courage for our current leadership. You are worried about further polarizing the country, yet that is exactly what you are doing. We need leaders who have insight into what needs to be done and the courage to do it for the betterment of our country, not their political future. We certainly don’t have that leadership today. Here’s hoping for future candidates that all Americans can be proud of.
John Dean says
Thank you for reading the piece. You are right–I fear a Republican return to power. The piece was not really about that. I was trying to say that blaming Biden alone is nonsense. There is plenty of blame to go around. Given the focus of the Republicans on the 2020 elections and their embrace of many troubling policies, I don’t want to see Republicans back in office.
James Nick says
Consider these items…
WEST DRAYTON, England, May 26 (Reuters) – At west London’s Hooked Fish and Chips, Bally Singh is struggling to keep the tills ringing for a British tradition, with prices sky-rocketing… “Fish prices have gone up extortionately; oil prices have gone up extortionately; and everything across the whole spectrum that we sell has gone up extortionately,” Singh told Reuters… Inflation [in the UK] reached a 40-year peak of 9% in April, the highest in the G7, and is projected to rise further. British consumers are more pessimistic than peers in Europe…
From: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/27/inflation-corporate-america-increased-prices-profits
“The analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings for 100 US corporations [not just oil companies] found net profits up by a median of 49%, and in one case by as much as 111,000%. Those increases came as companies saddled customers with higher prices and all but ten executed massive stock buyback programs or bumped dividends to enrich investors… Economists who reviewed the data say it’s more evidence of a clear reality: Consumers are taking a financial hit as companies and shareholders profit or are largely shielded.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/13/oil-gas-producers-first-quarter-2022-profits
“… financial records show 28 of the largest [oil] producers made close to $100bn in combined profits in just the first three months of 2022… The greed of these companies is staggering,” said Lori Lodes, executive director of Climate Power, an advocacy group. “We’ve heard their executives bragging about how much the agony of inflation and the tragedy of the war in Ukraine has allowed them to raise prices. These profits are going right into their pockets.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/gas-prices-oil-company-profits-skyrocketing-energy-sector-earnings-charts-2022-5
“Several of the world’s largest oil companies reported first-quarter earnings in recent weeks, giving investors new detail as to how sky-high gas prices are bolstering firms’ bottom lines. Performance, in a word, was stellar. ExxonMobil reported a net profit of $5.5 billion, more than doubling its earnings from the year-ago period. Shell notched its strongest quarterly profit ever, and Chevron posted its best earnings quarter in nearly a decade.”
During the pandemic, rental car companies sold off all their cars because the travel industry tanked. The sudden restart of the economy after(?) the pandemic caught them off guard and created a demand in the automobile sector that could not be fulfilled, in part, because the semiconductor industry did not build the capacity to meet demand.
As much as we may try, this country is still highly dependent on trade with China. But China’s zero-tolerance COVID policy shut down large segments of their manufacturing capacity as well as their largest city creating even more kinks in the already stressed global supply chain.
Someone will have to explain how all this is President Biden’s fault.
For the favorite conservative hobby horse of the Keystone XL pipeline, forgetting that extraction and transport of oil from the Canadian tar sands being an absolute environmental disaster, even if Biden had authorized the pipeline construction, the oil would just be coming onto the market right about now. So someone needs to explain why gas prices are through the roof now.
Someone will also have to explain how President Biden’s policies are responsible for the grotesque greed and windfall profits of corporations. Someone needs to explain how President Biden’s policies are responsible for the failure of the titans of capitalism to anticipate the demand for microchips. Someone will have to explain how President Biden’s policies are responsible for the lockdown in China.
And importantly, someone needs to explain what a Republican administration would have done differently and what one would do going forward.
John Dean says
Good points. I am at a loss as to what a re-elected Trump would have done differently from Biden (better stated “what Trump would have done more constructively than Biden).
Thank you for reading the piece.