The Spy’s editorial policies prevent me from telling you what I really think about Vladimir Putin, but you can guess. I spent a good part of Monday watching news reports indicating that the Russian invasion will take place today, Wednesday, February 16. The reports were incomplete in that an exact time for the war to start was not given.
I am more worried than many of my associates are. I fear a regional war, with Ukraine being the spark that starts a broader conflict, just like the shooting of Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered World War I. I also worry that the U.S. and our European allies will not stop Putin, just like Neville Chamberlin signing the Munich Agreement in 1938, in a failed attempt to appease Hitler in the hopes of preventing war.
Does anyone know what the U.S. should do in response to Russia’s blatant aggression? I don’t. And I fear President Biden and the European allies might not either because nobody can figure out with certainty why Putin would start the war.
The speculation I’ve heard—and I have yet to hear any responsible foreign policy expert claim to “know” what Putin’s up to—is that Putin is trying to put the old Soviet empire back together. I’ve also heard that he believes Ukraine is historically part of Russia. Still others claim that Putin’s “military triumph” (Putin’s thinking, nobody else’s) would get him the respect he seeks from the West.
The only thing that seems certain is that Putin is a sick man. President Biden may have gotten it right when, in 2011, he met with Putin and told him, “Mr. Prime Minister, I’m looking into your eyes, and I don’t think you have a soul.” Curiously, Putin agreed with Biden and told him, “We understand one another.”
I suspect that Biden remembers that conversation as he prepares for a U.S. response to the increasingly likely invasion. The biggest challenge in deciding how to respond is figuring out how to deal with a pathological, soulless, former KGB agent.
For what it’s worth, I approve of Biden’s response to date. The president has told Putin, unambiguously, that there will be a forceful and immediate response. He’s also repositioned American military forces to signal his seriousness to Putin. Although nothing is certain with Putin, the message is that if you attack U.S. forces, we will fight back. The other part of the message is the more persuasive one—that we will diplomatically and economically isolate you if you invade.
I hope Putin backs down, but success at preventing a war may depend on China. It was chilling to see China’s Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and Putin bonding at the Olympic Games. China now supports Putin’s anti-NATO policies. In exchange, Russia is expected to reiterate its support for China’s claim to Taiwan.
Ironically, Putin attended the games even though, officially, Russia does not have an official delegation of athletes. Russia was banned from the Olympics after being caught for “state doping.” That incident tells you a lot about Russia and Putin—Rules don’t matter. Winning does.
A week from now the U.S. could be involved in a world crisis that will make us forget inflation, the border crisis, and other domestic issues. Those issues could pale in comparison to a renewed (hopefully) cold war with Russia.
We should be worried. We must hope that Biden and his advisors find a way to persuade Putin to withdraw his forces and convince him that there are better ways to make Russia great again. That will be a tall order because, other than its military, Russia is a mess. It has a troubled economy, its population is declining, and corruption is widespread.
What do corrupt leaders do when backed into a corner? They change the subject. Is Putin trying to maintain his hold on power by creating a distraction? I don’t know. Let’s hope President Biden does.
J.E. Dean is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, birds, and other subjects.
Bob Moores says
Great analysis, J.E. I thought the days of one country invading another in order to expand its territory were a thing of the past. Why isn’t the world as alarmed as we? I understand NATO’s position, as Ukraine is not a member, but Where is the UN? Wasn’t it created to prevent this sort of thing? Or will it wait and issue a few toothless resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression after their fait accompli?
Chris Gordon says
Russia has veto power over the UN Security Council. The UN as a body is powerless to do anything but issue condemnations.
John Dean says
Thank you for your kind words. Much appreciated.
I wrote the piece after discussing the situation in Ukraine with several people, including a couple that claim to be experts. I got frustrated because, best I can tell, Putin is not governed by logic. I have my fingers crossed there won’t be a war. I could not agree with you more that the U.N. should be taking a leadership position on this. Unfortunately, these days you rarely see that.
Thanks for reading the piece. Much appreciated.
James Nick says
“… Nobody can figure out with certainty why Putin would start the war.” Seriously Mr Dean… nobody? Mr Dean is also being just as disingenuous when he describes Putin as “sick”. In 2001, President George W Bush said: “I looked [Putin] in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy… I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.” W wasn’t right about much but at least he got that half right. Putin is indeed far from trustworthy and is a malignant disruptive force on the world stage but he does seem to be straightforward and committed to Russia (or at least to maintaining his iron grip on power. It’s hard to sort that out).
So why can’t we just take Putin at his word? Have you looked at map of NATO countries recently? Much of the old Soviet Empire has joined NATO. He doesn’t want Ukraine to follow. It’s that’s simple. Is this so hard to figure out? It’s Putin’s version of the Monroe Doctrine. Not an original observation here but we would feel just a threatened if all of a sudden Canada and Mexico joined the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia’s answer to NATO.
Thanks to the Bush and Cheney misadventures in Iraq the US no longer occupies the moral high ground when it comes to calling out blatant aggression and starting a war to claim a military triumph (or make that “Mission Accomplished”). The best we can do is place Russia’s saber rattling under the heading of “two wrongs don’t make a right”.
What’s happening in the Ukraine isn’t so much analogous to the shooting of Archduke Ferdinand as it is to the Nazis annexing the Sudetenland and invading Poland. Putin is threatening to unleash his version of a blitzkrieg to punish an independent country not for something it did but for something it didn’t do. If Putin pulls the trigger appeasement would be as ill-advised as it was 1938.
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece and for your comment.
We are on different pages. I disagree with your analysis suggesting that Putin is “straightforward.” I see him as a corrupt dictator who has amassed billions for himself and his friends. That makes any claim he makes about Ukraine being a legitimate part of Russia suspect. He regularly lies (most recently in claiming a partial withdrawal of troops). Straightforward people do not regularly lie.
I am not in disagreement with your discussion of 1938 and Hitler. I am glad you conclude that Putin/Russia must be opposed.
Bill Anderson says
“… other than its military, Russia is a mess. It has a troubled economy, its population is declining, and corruption is widespread.”
Mr. Dean, isn’t this pretty much the status of America (with the exception of a declining population, largely because of illegal immigration)? Yes, it is!
John Dean says
Thanks for reading the piece. I would disagree with your conclusion that America is a mess. I don’t think corruption is widespread in our economy–there is corruption but it is not widespread and certainly in a different league than in Russia. I also would question your statement that our economy is troubled. Unemployment is low and wages are rising. I am concerned about rising inflation, but appropriate action by the Fed and some restraint on spending by Congress/the Administration will hopefully have an impact. I expect inflation to stop rising in the near future as the supply chain is addressed and to decline in 2023.
We disagree with each other, but please know I appreciate your commenting and adding to the discussion.