It’s Wednesday—Hump Day—and most of us could use something to uplift us. How about a column on war?
For the last few days, I’ve been worrying about the possibility that two major wars could break out in the next month. Both would involve allies of the U.S. Each would feature military aggression by an enemy of the U.S.–Russia and China.
I do not seek news about Russia’s troop buildup on its border with Ukraine or about China’s increasingly bold military incursions into Taiwanese airspace. But in recent weeks, it’s impossible to avoid. News reports continue to surface suggesting that war is coming. More troubling perhaps, the absence of articles suggesting the risk of war is decreasing.
I have long thought of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as the Hitler and Stalin of our time. To the extent I can, I avoid spending time thinking about them other than to hope for peace, as well as the end of their tenures as leaders of their respective countries. Peace may not be possible until both are gone.
In recent weeks, the Russians have moved two armies and three airborne formations to the border of Ukraine. China has been rapidly building up its military and recently flew a group of bombers over Taiwanese airspace. Should we, as Americans, be worried?
The answer, of course, is yes. Both countries appear to be testing the mettle of the Biden administration as they pursue their respective concepts of manifest destiny. If one or both start their war and achieve their objectives, it will be viewed as evidence of American decline.
It’s not easy for Americans to accept that we are peripheral to world events. China would not be “reclaiming” Taiwan to stick a finger in America’s eye. Putin is focusing on rebuilding the Russian empire. How the U.S. might respond to an invasion of Ukraine is a consideration–nothing more.
Both China and Russia are well aware that the U.S. remains preoccupied with its own internal crises, including the pandemic and widespread social unrest prompted by social and economic injustice. It is difficult to imagine Russian and Chinese leadership concluding that President Biden would risk a major war by responding with U.S. troops or airpower.
Both countries also may have determined that, no matter how the Biden administration may respond, the time is right for military aggression. Ukraine is not a NATO member, but is in an “enhanced partner interoperability program,” which is seen by some as an indicator of possible future NATO membership despite NATO denying that is so. It is also not clear how European countries would react to a new Russian invasion. When Russia invaded the Crimea in 2014, no European country (or the U.S.) committed troops in opposition.
Some readers may recall the story of China and Taiwan, or Taipei, as China calls it. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, a position it has held since 1949. The Chinese Communist Party has suggested that if the island reintegrated with the mainland, it would be governed under the “One China, Two Systems” principle. This is the same principle recently abandoned in Hong Kong. Would China act differently once in power in Taiwan? The Taiwanese government doesn’t think so.
The recent Chinese military build-up makes success in an invasion of Taiwan a high probability unless the U.S., Japan or others intervened. Taiwan is a mere 100 miles from the mainland. Taiwan’s military is described by experts as “unprepared.” The risk of widespread devastation also raises the question of whether the will to fight exists if China committed massive forces to an invasion.
U.S. military intervention on behalf of Taiwan may be problematic. When the U.S. established diplomatic relations with the Peoples Republic of China in 1979, it acknowledged China’s position that Taiwan is part of mainland China. The announcement of diplomatic relations read, in part, “the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”
The story of Ukraine is simpler. It was part of the Eastern Block in the glory years of the Soviet Union. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, it has had difficulty establishing itself as a viable western-style state. Russia senses a vacuum. And because its 2014 annexation of Crimea was relatively pain-free, it may view another invasion as low risk.
In addition to these admittedly superficial looks at both “hotspots,” an additional worry is the possibility that Russia and China could coordinate actions. What if wars broke out in Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time? Does America have the military resources to engage in both conflicts? Would President Biden have support of the American people? Would the left-leaning Democratic party support him if he decided to intervene? How many Americans can even identify the locations of Taiwan and Ukraine on a map?
Perhaps these questions are the result of worrying too much. As a matter of personal discipline, I try to worry only about things that I can influence. So, what to make of this situation? My hope, obviously, is that neither crisis materializes. With all that the world has endured over the last year and a half, we do not need another war, especially one that could quickly evolve into a world war.
J.E. Dean of Oxford is a retired attorney and public affairs consultant writing on politics, government, domestic policy, and occasionally goldendoodles.
Bill Barron says
Your concerns are well placed. Russians watched their personal wealth plummet after Perestroika, then felt double-crossed by the West’s failure to invest promised dollars and by invasion of their fellow Slavs in the Balkans during the ‘90’s. We set the stage for rise of a clever opportunist like Vladmir Putin whom they saw as a means to restore their declining fortunes. And, to a great extent, he’s done the job, earning more popularity in the process as he has built his power base. And it’s unlikely that he’ll stop with Crimea; reunification with the remaining Ukraine is the perfect opportunity to cement his legacy with supporters. Russia’s economy, 11th in the world is probably large enough to support a focused military effort for a while but Ukraine is big and “mainlander” Ukranians despise Russians with a visceral hatred absent in Crimea. Putin is impulsive but too sly to gamble that NATO would not eventually enter the fray.
But the Russian threat to Ukraine pales in comparison with that posed to Taiwan by the PRC. China has a long-term plan for complete domination of their Asian region, independent of any single autocratic leader a la Putin. Their threat is multi-faceted, involving military dominance, economic warfare, industrial espionage, and intelligence gathering on a scale beyond imagination, every activity carefully coordinated by a central agency. Taiwan will likely be the first of their territorial conquests; and not necessarily achieved by military force. Based on conversations with my granddaughter, currently living in Taiwan on a Fulbright grant since mid-2019, independence may not be the life/death issue for many Taiwanese. Despite the saber-rattling of the Taiwanese government and anti-PRC sentiments of most elders, many ROC citizens are ambivalent about the threat. She lives on Kinmen Island (a Taiwanese possession formerly known as Quemoy), in sight of and connected by a bridge to mainland China. Although, commerce and tourism to Kinmen has been halted temporarily by the pandemic, it is normally host to hundreds of thousands of PRC tourists each year; mainland Chinese own property and businesses there; families have kin on both ends of the bridge. While the independence issue is not currently the hottest topic of conversation, she feels that if a referendum were conducted tomorrow, a majority of islanders would vote for reunification with the PRC.
By the way, if you haven’t already read it, among several excellent treatments of the Chinese worldview is a book by Bill Gertz, “Deceiving the Sky”, mostly rational with a little over-speculation. Another you might enjoy is “Imperial Gamble: Putin, Ukraine and the New Cold War” by journalist Marvin Kalb.
John Dean says
Thank you for a very informative comment that materially contributes to the conversation. Much appreciated.
Thank you as well for your recommendations. I confess to not having read either, so I have some work to do.
Bob Moores says
My thoughts on the Russia/Ukraine disagreement:
1) I hope our government has made clear to Putin how we would respond to an invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Putin shouldn’t have to guess what our response would be. We should have a plan now, not wait until Russia invades.
2) Considering that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, a decision to defend them in case Russia invades is complicated. Does the U.S. go it alone (I say “no way”) or would we be part of an alliance? Do we send advanced weapons but no boots-on-ground, to support Ukraine? I think it is out of the question that we send U.S. troops to directly confront Russian troops. That would be a recipe for disaster, considering that both are nuclear powers.
3) Another complicating factor is that it seems there are many Russian sympathizers in Eastern Ukraine. If the hearts of Eastern Ukrainiers (majority?) are with Russia I would say let Russia have that territory. If, on the other hand, the Russian sympathizers are a minority the decision to defend them (or not) becomes a moral one. If the latter is the case, why not admit Ukraine to NATO ASAP? Then the question of defense becomes clear – all NATO members would be legally and morally bound to defend Ukraine.
My thoughts on the China/Taiwan disagreement:
China is our largest trading partner, and vice versa. We can’t afford to go to war with each other.
Why is China violating Taiwan’s airspace with military aircraft? Are they hoping Taiwan will take a shot at them, and use that as a pretext to invade? I am too ignorant to understand China’s game, but I do understand why they feel that this little island on their doorstep, which is already called “The Republic of China”, should be officially recognized as part of “big” China.
If China were to invade Taiwan, I don’t think the U.S. should (or could) do anything about it. If China was serious about invading it would be a fait accompli in about a week.
The most we could do in protest would be to temporarily kick some of their diplomats out. They would respond in kind, and that would be that. The stupid tariffs Trump imposed were countered in kind by China, so tariffs, in the end, means higher prices of traded goods for consumers in both countries.
Besides, as Bill Barron said, would the Taiwanese really care if they were part of China?
John Dean says
Thank you for this substantive comment that greatly enhances the conversation. I appreciate you reading my article and adding to the information about what is going on in both places.
In particular, I wondered about whether the Taiwanese are ready to fight to maintain their independence. Your comment confirms my suspicions and is obviously a material consideration for the U.S. should China invade.