District 1 Republican challenger Andy Harris leads 53 percent to 42 percent in the contentious House race against incumbent Rep. Frank Kratovil, according to a Monmouth University poll released Thursday.
Harris’s 11-point lead represents a huge surge in a race that has been neck-and-neck since the outset. An Oct. 6 poll by Penn Schoen Berland, as reported by The Hill newspaper, showed Harris with a slight numerical lead, but with the margin of error the candidates were essentially tied.
The most recent poll, an automated survey of 637 likely voters by the Monmouth University Polling Institute, was conducted from Oct. 16 – 19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. But that margin increases when breaking down the results into categories such as political party or gender.
When the two candidates faced each other in the 2008 election, Kratovil won by 2,852 votes – a margin of less than 1 percentage point.
“In that race, Kratovil won a narrow victory by racking up an 11-point margin in his native Eastern Shore to offset Harris’ 12-point advantage in the western part of the district,” the new report said. “That scenario is unlikely to play out this year.”
Kratovil campaign manager Jessica Klonsky said their camp isn’t putting too much weight into the poll’s results. She said internal polling shows Kratovil is still in a “very strong position,” but neither camp has published internal polling results since Kratovil released information on Sept. 17 that showed he was up by six points.
But whatever advantage he had then has disappeared, according to the Monmouth poll, which shows Harris, who has been an anesthesiologist at Baltimore’s Johns Hopkins Hospital for 26 years, leading the Western Shore by an even wider margin than last time, 56 percent to Kratovil’s 40 percent.
And now, Kratovil’s Eastern Shore may be leaning red too, according to the Monmouth poll.
The poll shows Kratovil’s influence on independents waning as well. In the Oct. 6 poll, he had a slight lead, with 38 percent of independents favoring him, compared to 35 percent for Harris.
In the new poll, Harris had a resounding 24-point advantage, with 58 percent of independents for Harris compared to 34 percent for Kratovil.
There is also notable animosity for the Democratic Party as a whole. While 78 percent of 1st-District Democrats said they had an “unfavorable” opinion of the Republican Party, 91 percent of Republicans said they had an unfavorable view of the Democrats.
Harris released a new commercial Oct. 18 telling voters to “break up the team” of Kratovil, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and President Obama.
“I think people are upset with Washington as a whole, and Democrats are running Washington,” said Harris spokeswoman Anna Nix. “When things aren’t going well, the voters switch teams.”
Nix said recent polls have given the campaign a new sense of momentum.
“Our internal polls have us up, independent polls have us up,” Nix said. “People are ready to send Frank Kratovil home.”
Richard Abdill
Holy Cow - Vote for the East! says
While neither candidate is ideal……can the Eastern Shore live with a congressman who has no relationship – IE – does not live nor work on the Eastern Shore – yet is representing a clear culture and way of life – the answer is no……he will push for an agenda for the piece of the 1st District which is West – not the East.
Chestertownie says
Holy Cow: Frank Kratovil may put his head down on a pillow on Kent Island every night, but he remains true to the political sensibilities of his native Prince George’s County. By contrast, Dr. Andy Harris has a proven track record of opposing tax increases and the expansion of government. He championed opposition to Martin O’Malley’s 20% increase in the State’s sales tax.
There is no Eastern Shore native on the ballot this year. You can keep Prince George’s County’s Frank Kratovil. I’ll take Baltimore County’s Andy Harris.
Chris says
Surely you mean “Kings County’s Andy Harris” since Harris was born in Brooklyn.
John says
according to an article in The Sun, it’s dead even:
https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-first-district-poll-20101021,0,2964105.story
Concerned Native says
The problem with your argument Chestertownie is that Frank Kratovil was elected the State’s Attorney in Queen Anne’s County twice. Once unapposed. He and his wife raise their kids and make their lives in Stevensville. I believe the entire family has lives there. His roots may be young here, but you cannot imply that they have not grown deep.
In this anonymous game, it is hard to tell who the newbies versus the veterans are. The R’s tried the PG argument during his first election. He won by a clear margin in a Republican year in a Republican county.
The Sun is right. This is a nail biter. Kratovil’s former biggest problem, angry Democrats, is subsiding. When you meet Frank, you like Frank, and you know why he has so many active supporters. Also, despite Andy Harris being on a leash for the last several weeks, most Republicans in the District remember what kind of guy he really is. It must be what makes him such an accomplished anethesiologist.
Now the Capital, Sun, and Aegis – significant endorsements. And reflect more on Andy Harris’s inability to convince the remaining rational that he is really out for the District, as opposed to forwarding extreme views. (Yes, I believe the 23 percent national sales tax is a regressive, anti-small business “what nut thunk this up” tax proposal if you are serious about re-industrializing America).
I hope the rancor changes. I encourage Congressman Kratovil to be the first to stop the carpet bombing. While Andy Harris will likely not stop, you may be able to convince the handful of undecideds that you are a nice guy who can rise above the Andy Harris bombthrowing mentality.
Chestertownie says
The Sun has yet to acknowledge that there is a competing poll, with vastly different results, that was in the field at the same time as the Sun poll. In addition, the competing poll is from a non-partisan organization (Monmouth University), whereas the Sun poll is from a firm whose principals are all registered Democrats. The Monmouth poll (available online at https://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP37_MD01.pdf) provide details on a whole host of questions beyond. “If the election were held today…”. The Sun poll provides a head-to-head number, but no data beyond that. There’s no question on the Kratovil or Harris favorable/unfavorable numbers. No data regarding which party MD-01 voters want to control Congress. No data. Then there’s the confusion in the number of participants in the poll. The news story reports there were 520 survey participants, yet the video interview with the pollster has scrolling text that reports there were 798 participants. Maybe clarification and additional details will be forthcoming in future online editions, but the print and morning online news stories leave most readers asking, “where are the details”?
MDW says
I remember a mean spirited,mud slinging letter I received from Harris when he was ousting Congressman Wayne Gilchrist. Harris is not a person who should represent us on the Eastern Shore. He is intolerant and narrow minded.
joe says
Please vote for someone who isn’t a curmudgeonly rubber stamp; keep Harris in Baltimore County and out of Congress. Kratovil has been endorsed by the Harford County paper (Harris’ back yard) and the Annapolis paper among others. A far more wide ranging group has endorsed him including the NRA. I agree with Concerned Native- Frank at least hangs his hat here on the Shore and he deserves another term.